The State as a Begging Dog

Europe watches with dismay as Obama’s tug of war with the tea party over health care and a minimum social safety net continues. The U.S. budget dispute could quickly become a meltdown with worldwide implications. Let the commentary begin.

It is difficult, but let us imagine Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. as a couple, embracing on the roof of a skyscraper and staring off into the distance. Then, one of them suddenly says, “If you don’t like my idea of romance and of our future together, I’m going to jump and take you down with me.” This is one way to describe the strategy of the Republicans in the midst of recurring budget disputes.

This time, they are especially brazen in their approach: They will only pass a transitional budget if Barack Obama modifies or abandons health care reform — meaning, of course, the president’s central political project, which was approved by Congress, upheld by the Supreme Court and confirmed by the people in last year’s presidential election.

Driven Forward by the Tea Party

Republicans are being led in this direction by the tea party movement, whose ideas about the relationship between the market and state make the German Free Democratic Party look like a Socialist worker’s club. The tea party sees the state as something like a stray dog, running up and down the streets, begging for food. When regarded from such a perspective, universal health care and a minimum social safety net can quickly appear threatening.

For those who think that way, it is not much of a problem that 800,000 public servants have been forced to take unpaid leave, except, of course, that experts have calculated it will cost the U.S. economy more than $50 billion if this situation lasts for three or four weeks. That is about as much as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Superstorm Sandy put together. For this reason, the budget dispute and its consequences could go from political meltdown to a man-made disaster.

A High-Risk Scenario for Obama

Obama also runs a high risk if he accepts the “government shutdown,” as it is being called in America. However, there remains little choice. In a political system that relies on cooperation, it is impossible to take the same conflict too far. For this reason, the president is correct in assuming that the public will blame Republicans in the end. Seventeen years ago, Republicans found themselves backed into a corner by Bill Clinton’s steely resolve. That time, the government stood still for 28 days.

Those paying attention to the brutal political battle in the U.S. can only smile when considering the little drama playing out between the Christian Social Union and Social Democratic Party at the moment.

While the one bangs on about its excellent election results and the other is still making a bit of a fuss, at the end of it all, they will come together to form a workable grand coalition. For that, Germany has its frequently criticized culture of consensus to thank, along with an electoral system that usually results in the need for coalition governments — which can only come to power through compromise.

Europe Is Also in Danger

Unfortunately, Germans cannot simply observe the U.S. budget crisis as if it were all an exciting Hollywood movie, irrelevant to their lives. It will be very dangerous for European countries if the hardened battle lines do not soften by Oct. 17, at which point Congress must also raise the U.S. debt ceiling. Otherwise it will be threatened by default, which would have uncertain consequences for the rest of the world economy. Republicans and Democrats might want to leap from the top of the skyscraper without us, but we might end up hitting the ground with them as they fall.