America Is Unraveling

It’s 1-0 in favor of China. That’s what has been reported in the media in Asia this week. President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Li Keqiang are jumping from one country to another: Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Thailand, Vietnam. One minute the Chinese are stealing the show at the APEC summit; the next they are making headlines at the meeting of ASEAN [Association of Southeast Asian Nations]. Here Xi is promising to make investments amounting to $30 billion; there he’s painting a picture of a rosy future and a “mutual blossoming” to his Asian neighbors. And where is Barack Obama? He’s sitting at home. “It’s almost like me … not showing up to my own party,” said the U.S. president this week, frustrated by his canceled trip to Asia.

It must cause Obama even more anguish because it was always his idea to focus America’s foreign policy upon the Pacific region. He wants to build America’s presence in dynamic Asia on a political, economic and military basis. This region is where the future is thriving and the biggest rival — China — is lying in wait. This uproar over Obama’s canceled trip has become significant. Some individuals are predicting a “diplomatic catastrophe”; others foresee the “turn of an era.”

However, this occurrence should not necessarily be seen as a catastrophe. If we ignore the fact that there is no longer only one winner in the game of diplomacy and consider the current situation, Beijing is “winning,” whereas Washington is “losing” [at this moment]. In Asia — this week’s location of interest — the cancellation of Obama’s visit has not made much of an impact.

Yes, it’s true that Beijing is currently on a charm offensive; its neighbors would like nothing more than to achieve a prosperous coexistence with the giant of the region. However, they appear to have forgotten that China’s increasing self-confidence in recent years has tipped over into arrogance and even aggressiveness. This suggests that China’s territorial demands are becoming dangerous. Asian nations fear China just as much as they admire and seek to charm the country. Many of these admirers wish to see nothing more than an America that competes with the great nation and shows a solid presence in the region.

Therefore, the problem is not that Obama did not turn up. The problem is why he did not turn up. All of a sudden, the political system in the United States has become dangerously weak. The reportedly most powerful man in the world does not even have a firm grasp on his own government. He allows the opposition to cripple his administration; this worries Asia for two main reasons. On the one hand, it presents an ideal opportunity for the opponents of democracy: This happens when a government fails to control public opinion and political powers with a firm hand. This leads to a division of power, namely a fatal weakening of the state. This is “the worst side of U.S. democracy,” according to the Beijing newspaper Wen Wei Po — which announces this triumphantly.

And on the other hand, America’s weakness only strengthens the skepticism of those who do not doubt the country’s wish to concentrate on Asia; rather, they doubt America’s ability to do so. Quite a few are asking just how reliable a pledge of allegiance from a fiscally irresponsible and politically unsettled Washington can be.

The Asian nations’ doubts about the sustainability of America’s commitment to their region are nothing new. Their doubts are as old as the commitment itself, which goes back to World War II. What is new, however, is the public self-destruction of the oldest and most powerful democracy in the world before their very eyes. The outcome of the crisis and the next steps will do more to shape the perception of Obama than his canceled trip would have. China cannot recommend America’s commitment to the region: Only the United States itself can do this.