USA-Iran: Secret Negotiations on Afghanistan, Iraq and Trade

Although nuclear weapons discussions took place this Thursday in Geneva between Iranians and representatives from the major world powers, other negotiations have taken place in secret over the past few weeks, this time between U.S. and Iranian diplomats.

These discussions are focused on four topics, a source in the Gulf has revealed to Le Figaro: Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and the prospect of boosting business between Tehran and Washington after a nuclear weapons agreement is signed.

According to this source, the Iranians had direct talks with American diplomats in the U.S. after the U.N. General Assembly at the end of September, during which Barack Obama telephoned Hassan Rouhani, the new, moderate Iranian president.

“Javad Zarif [Iran’s head of diplomacy] was in the U.S. for ten days after the U.N. General Assembly,” said the source. “And 75 people accompanied Rouhani to New York, including many oil and gas industry representatives, such as representatives from Chevron and Exxon.”

On the subject of Afghanistan, the Americans asked the Iranians to help them with their troop withdrawal in 2014 “by securing the border area where Tehran has contacts.” “Their positions on this were not far apart,” according to the source.

Regarding Iraq, Americans and Iranians want to “consolidate the power in place and avoid disruption” in the country. The Americans are happy that, after having exerted pressure on Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, the latter has stepped up surveillance of flights originating from Iran that carry weapons to Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

However, negotiations were more difficult regarding the Syrian conflict. “It’s the trump card, the joker that the Iranians will release at the last second,” said the source. But having taken the bull by the horns, Tehran will not give up its ally, Assad, anytime soon, so no credible way of moving forward has emerged as of yet. Especially in Tehran, the Syrian alliance is managed not by Hassan Rouhani, but by the Revolutionary Guards, a group much less inclined toward concessions when it comes to Syria.

On discussions over a reopening of trade between the “Great Satan” and the Islamic Republic of Iran, things could move quickly, with a short-term goal being the opening of a U.S.-Iranian chamber of commerce in Tehran. “The Iranians have promised $100 billion of business to U.S. companies,” confirmed our source. Notably, Boeing is eyeing the very lucrative market of dozens of Iran Air planes that need to be replaced. General Motors has also been on the lookout for opportunities for several months.

“There is very little communication about these bilateral discussions,” explained our source. “Americans and Iranians are relying on confidentiality so that these talks don’t go sour. And they must act quickly to get both Congress and the Iranian government on board so that all the lobbyists opposed to reconciliation don’t have time to act.”

Regarding nuclear weapons, Iranians and Americans have already devised a secret “interim agreement,” which Laurent Fabius touched up in the first round of the Geneva talks 10 days ago, judging it to be not strong enough to keep Iran from acquiring the atomic bomb.