Moldova Heads into the US Sphere of Influence

Yesterday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry visited Moldova. In Chisinau, the visit was seen as support for Moldova’s European aspirations, against the background of Ukraine abandoning its own. According to Chisinau’s Director of the Institute for European Studies Viorel Cibotaru, it was also seen as a signal to Brussels, Bucharest, Kiev and especially, Moscow. For a long time, Chisinau has been asking Washington to take a more active stance in the negotiations to resolve the Transnistria conflict, challenging Russia, and counts on securing U.S. support after Kerry’s visit.

The U.S. secretary of state arrived in Chisinau from Brussels yesterday afternoon. He first met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and it is likely they discussed questions later raised during meetings with the Moldavan leadership: the situation after the summit in Vilnius in the Commonwealth of Independent States and the resolution to the Transnistrian conflict. Anatol Taranu, director of Politicon, a strategic research and consulting firm, confirmed this to Nezavisimaya Gazeta. In his opinion, Kerry’s visit to Chisinau shows that “Moldova is becoming one of the State Department’s agenda items — after the Ukraine’s exit from talks with the EU.” Taranu notes that Moldavan authorities are tying this visit to hopes of U.S. political and economic help. Chisinau is also counting on making progress with U.S. assistance in settling the Transnistrian conflict.

It is known that Moldova’s leaders had previously proposed changing the status of the U.S. in these negotiations from observer to participant. By doing so, Chisinau hoped to strengthen its own position in the negotiations: If the U.S. becomes an intermediary, then it might support them, just as Russia supports the Transnistrians. Anatol Taranu noted that, while the U.S. had previously declared the Republic of Moldova to be a national interest, it essentially just left it within the sphere of influence of the European Union. Now, after Kiev failed to sign the agreement with the EU, the situation in the region is changing, but not to Chisinau’s benefit:

“The Ukraine’s particular position may add to Russian pressure. Kiev is becoming a threat to Chisinau. And in these circumstances, the U.S. might take the region under its control,” suggests an expert.

In any case, Taranu considers Kerry’s visit a success for Moldova. Taranu also said that Moldovan Prime Minister Yury Lyanke told Kerry that Chisinau, “intended to maintain good relations with Russia during its certain shift to the West, which he had said publicly many times before.” At the time of publication, information from this meeting was not available.

Cibotaru thinks that the secretary’s visit is a “symbolic geopolitical gesture. Without a doubt this is support for Moldova’s path to the EU. And it is a signal to Brussels, Bucharest, Kiev and Moscow,” said the political analyst.

“After Vilnius, the process of Euro-integration will speed up for our country. The fight against corruption will take serious turns. I won’t name names, but many will abandon their bureaucratic positions. A mechanism to liberalize the visa regime with the EU is underway, and the day is not far off when Moldovan citizens will travel to Europe without a visa. And that will change a lot, regarding the atmosphere of talks with Transnistria,” said Cibotaru.

Several politicians are taking hope from Kerry’s arrival to Chisinau for Moldova’s Euro-Atlantic future. Moldovan Defense Minister Vitaly Marinutsa had previously announced that Moldova should integrate not only with the EU, but also with NATO. Under the current constitution, Moldova is a neutral state. However, there are many people in Moldova who want to change this. On this point, Moldova rivals Bucharest in everything, but Romania is a NATO member. The Moldovan Army adopted NATO standards several years ago, and senior officers regularly train in the United States. Moldovan officers used to train in Russian military academies, but starting next year, they will train in Romania.

Increased security measures were adopted in the Moldovan capital during Kerry’s visit: Secret service agents guarded him, and he traveled in an armored car, brought from the United States. Street access was limited to the areas where he met with Moldovan leaders. Kerry’s travel route was kept secret. He met with Moldovan Minister of Foreign Affairs Natalia Gherman at the Chisinau airport. Then, he met with Speaker of Parliament Igor Corman, Prime Minister Yury Lyanke, and also with President Nicolae Timofti. The U.S. Secretary of State visited the famous Cricova wine cellars. Moldovan vintners expressed the hope that, having tried Moldovan wine, their American guest would promote sales in the United States.

Kerry is the second highest American official to visit Moldova. In March 2011, U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden visited Chisinau.