Dismantling of a Superpower

American soldiers have already left Iraq, they will leave Afghanistan next year and the U.S. did not want to take the lead in the Libyan conflict. And if we look beyond East Asia and the problem of weapons of mass destruction, the U.S. does not feel obliged to bear the brunt when it comes to defusing big or small conflicts elsewhere. Washington has not said anything serious about events in Ukraine. The country that it wants to build up the most is the United States. President Obama seems to actually take to heart the motto he has given to his presidency. It is striking that a majority of Americans strongly criticize his foreign policy to some extent, but are in favor of this motto and of a dismantling of the commitment to world affairs, and do not disfavor a slimmed-down role for America at all. Two wars and a long recession have left deep scars on the collective psyche. Military interventions are now the last thing that Americans want — just look at Syria.

Foreign Policy Based on National Priorities

A survey carried out by the Pew Research Center looked into this and uncovered many sobering, but nevertheless realistic views. Among the sobering findings is the evaluation of America’s significance in the world: A majority of those asked (53 percent) believe that the United States has a less important and powerful role than 10 years ago. It is the first time in 40 years that a majority believes this. The percentage of those with such a pessimistic view was only 20 percent in 2004! The percentage of those who believe, to put it bluntly, that the U.S. should mind its own business and not interfere in other countries’ affairs has grown significantly. Here, as well, one can see an echo of Obama’s policy toward Syria. Or, conversely, Obama’s conduct in this conflict can be interpreted as a reflection of public opinion. Eighty percent of those surveyed agreed with the statement that the U.S. should pay more attention to problems at home. It should offer protection against threats such as terrorism, cyberattacks and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, but fighting poverty overseas and promoting democracy? No thanks! It fits with the gloominess of neorealism that 70 percent of those surveyed think that the U.S. is less respected by other countries than it was in the past. This view is clouded by political party affiliations: Republican-minded voters feel that there is a loss of respect; Democratic-minded voters thought the same thing during the Bush administration.

From this snapshot of opinions one could come to the striking conclusion that the U.S. is retreating from world politics on a broad front. After the “unipolar moment” following the end of the Cold War and particularly following 9/11, it switched back to isolationism mode. The authors of the study warn against such an unequivocal conclusion. Two-thirds of Americans consider U.S. participation in the global economy to be a good thing; three-quarters are explicitly in favor of growing trade and business ties between the U.S. and other countries. One conclusion to take from this is that the Obama administration actually has the majority of the population on its side when it comes to trade negotiations with Asian countries and the European Union. The range of opinions should be interpreted carefully: The majority of Americans are in favor of a geopolitical dismantling of the notion of being a superpower and of a foreign policy which is closely based on national priorities; but they completely disfavor such curtailment when it comes to the economy, trade and investment.

Who Will Pull the Chestnuts out of the Fire?

The comparison sounds bold and it can only be made with certain qualifications, but in a broad sense this is similar to how most Germans think. Many Germans are proud of the title “world champion in exports”; they know that “their” money is mainly earned abroad. At the same time, many Germans think that because we live in a complex world that is full of conflict, it is possible to live quite comfortably as a “big Switzerland.” Federal President Gauck strongly criticized this view in his speech to mark the Day of German Unity, Oct. 3. The nation cannot be an isolated island, but must assume more responsibility in the world, he said.

German politics has often been accused of similar things in the recent past, namely that Germany is economically strong and not shy of taking self-confident and decisive action and predetermining outcomes in economic and financial matters (as in Europe’s debt crisis). When it comes to foreign policy and defense policy, Berlin wants to play second fiddle. It would most like to do nothing at all, as it did with Libya (the federal government considered, and continues to consider, its voting behavior at the U.N. Security Council in March 2011 to be correct, particularly given the developments in Libya and the region since then). Germany successfully flexes its muscles in economic matters but the largest European economy pretends it is not a geopolitical giant.

This toxic accusation is exaggerated: Germany has troops in Afghanistan after all. It also refutes the argument that Germany is the dominant, if hesitant, force in Europe. Germany has neither the ambition nor the means, nor does it have the mental state, to be the dominant force. It is true, however, that expectations are increasingly being placed on Germany to act; it is asked to exercise leadership, as has not been the case in the last 50 years. Germany is aware of these expectations from near and far, but only selectively takes note of this leadership responsibility. The German people are not keen on military interventions, as stated above. At least not when Germany is not directly threatened. This is exactly how more and more Americans are seeing it.

A Strong Plea for Partnership

The United States is indisputably still the world’s largest military power, and it will be many years until it is overtaken economically by China. But the people have lost interest in a foreign policy based on omnipresence and all-pervading power. They know the outcome of the invasion of Iraq and the mission in Afghanistan: They are not a good advertisement. The Germans were, and still are, skeptical from the outset. But what happens when the world leaves neither country in peace? And what if the Americans no longer want to pull the chestnuts out of the fire for us? Who will pull chestnuts out of the fire at all? The Russians and the Chinese maybe? In the long run it will not be enough to put one’s head in the sand. Conversely, however, the confident belief that it is possible to influence internal processes in other countries will fail in reality.

So we are all realists somehow. More than three-quarters of the Americans surveyed think that the U.S. should take into account the views of its major allies. That is a strong plea for partnership. It takes into account all of the experience from the last 10 or 12 years.