Saudi Arabia’s Role after America’s Retreat

Saudi Arabia is the America of the Arab world in many ways. Even in the midst of many problems and challenges, both domestic and foreign, Saudi Arabia believes that it now fills the role occupied, until recently, by the United States in the Middle East.

This is perhaps the reason behind Saudi Arabia’s intention to approach and improve relations with Israel. Perhaps, it considers that Israel stands as an alternative to America, which at the moment can be seen as retreating from the Middle East. Perhaps, Saudi Arabia is convinced that it has the necessary money to dominate the region in place of the United States. Perhaps, Saudi Arabia has found an opportunity to now replace [the U.S.] during the gradual American retreat from the Middle East. The Saudi reconciliation with Israel is used also to win American support of Saudi Arabia, so that [Saudi Arabia] plays the role the U.S. filled previously.

Currently, the prevailing conditions and situations in the Middle East seem suitable for Saudi Arabia to play this role. By this, we mean the “circumstances and conditions” now dominant in Egypt, in the wake of the [Muslim] Brotherhood’s attempt to challenge the Egyptian army for control of the government. Even though the Brotherhood receives foreign financial support in the form of weapons and explosives, it is on the path to failure and retreat. Every day, the Brotherhood approaches its ultimate defeat. Perhaps, the Egyptian people have discovered that the Brotherhood does not possess political autonomy and that it does not make its own decisions. This is enough to ensure its defeat at the hands of the Egyptian army, which believes that its stance against [the Brotherhood] is aligned with the desires of the Egyptian people. Still, the Brotherhood is making a weak attempt to demonstrate that it has a role in Egypt. The Brotherhood is fragmented and has threads in multiple places outside the Arab world. These are in America, Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan and a large number of European countries. Along with this, the Brotherhood is moving toward failure in the countries of the former Soviet Union.

There is also the condition that dominates in Syria. There, fighting occurs between America’s religious extremists and the Syrian people. Now, it seems the first signs are appearing that the extremists are retreating.

What is certain is that both of these examples of confrontation are sufficient to predict that [the U.S.] will be defeated, not only in Iraq, Tunisia and Libya, but also in any part of the Arab world, no matter how much stability or disorder prevails there. It seems that Saudi Arabia wants to convincingly play what was the American role in the Middle East. This is the true reason for differences and disagreements between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. in these last months. The U.S. does not seem convinced that Saudi Arabia can play this role in the region, but the U.S. will not for one moment expose any disagreements between itself and Saudi Arabia. Thus, during his visit to Riyadh, Secretary of State Kerry attempted to direct his thanks to the Saudi king for supporting peace efforts. In this way, the Saudi government is exploiting [America’s weakness] in carrying out its new role. Saudi Arabia seems to have a number of disagreements with the American government regarding the events in Egypt and Syria especially. It is obvious here that the U.S. is unable to finish its task concerning the development of Egypt and Syria. The U.S. seems to be in a state of retreat indeed, but it denies this reality and thus works counterproductively, failing to realize a strategic American political and economic withdrawal from the Middle East toward East Asia, without losing all that it has accomplished in this area. Saudi Arabia is expressing interest in developing unofficial relations with Israel, since Saudi Arabia sees Israel as representing the U.S. in the region militarily, politically and economically. On this issue, Saudi Arabia seems to be in a state of confusion, not hiding its attempts to cooperate with Israel, while, at the same time, attempting to improve relations with Egypt. This latter relationship is dependent on the condition of peace between Egypt and Israel. In addition to this, Israel — which is a flourishing democracy — refuses to listen to any statement regarding the ways Saudi Arabia acts favorably toward Israel. Perhaps, this is because the Israelis — officially and unofficially — seek to express their happiness with Saudi Arabia’s moves toward harmony with Israel through total silence.

American political observers who follow the movements of Saudi Arabia toward Israel believe that this situation is similar to the reconciliation between [the U.S.] and Iran, in which there is considerable American interest. Perhaps, the observers think that these two occurrences of reconciliation — between Saudi Arabia and Israel and America and Iran — can lead to reconciliation between Iran and Israel. Most think that this is merely wishful thinking. Lately, is seems as though, with its new president and government, Iran may not view reconciliation with Israel as quite so dangerous. Observers believe that the new government and president in Iran may provide a way to change its extreme policies, but all the evidence suggests that Iran, which has expressed a persistent interest in negotiating with the U.S. concerning Iranian desires for a peaceful nuclear program, has, in a short time period, been able to create a positive impression in Washington regarding the Iranian nuclear program. Perhaps, Iran has succeeded in convincing the U.S. that there is a distinction between Iran becoming a nuclear country and Iran’s basic stance toward Israel. This distinction is being established, even now, with the success at the Geneva conference. Nonetheless, Israel might be able affect the American and European positions at the conference, ensuring a positive outcome for itself.

What is certain is that Saudi Arabia hopes Iran fails in fostering this effect at the aforementioned conference. Additionally, Iran could merely end this conference hastily to make certain that its position will remain where it is in the future conference, where Iran would be a participant. There is no doubt that Iranian attempts to communicate with Saudi Arabia in these last months are designed to confirm Iran’s core beliefs with regard to both nuclear power and Israel. Perhaps, Saudi Arabia understands that Iran is attempting to change the Saudi position on [Iran’s] reconciliation with Israel. This [reconciliation] would not hurt Iran at all and would probably benefit it regionally in the Arab and Islamic world. As for Saudi Arabia’s position, at this time, it is not possible to discern the state of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Here, the U.S. plays a prominent role, and no one expects that it will abandon this role, even while the American plan continues to be to shift its focus and influence from the Middle East to Central Asia.

Indeed, Prince Bandar bin Sultan is playing a prominent role in announcing the secret reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Israel. This means that Saudi Arabia strives to play a large, critical role in the region. Saudi Arabia is increasingly interested in this role, all the while watching the events unfold in Egypt and especially Syria. These events tend to weaken the centrality of Egypt and Syria in the region, a development Saudi Arabia applauds.

What can be expected is for Saudi Arabia to play a prominent role in the region surrounding Syria, especially in Lebanon. It is doing this in an attempt to damage Hezbollah, given the role [Hezbollah] has played in recent months in Syria, bringing the ruling forces closer to victory.

The U.S. is retreating from its role and will retreat even more, but Saudi Arabia is not the candidate to take its place.