China-US Relationship Beginning To Look More and More Like a Chess Match

American Secretary of State John Kerry made his fifth official visit to China today. Despite the two superpowers having much to offer each other economically, there is no sign of a good relationship. “There is a deep-seated distrust,” according to the Clingendael Institute’s expert on China, Frans-Paul van der Putten.

Since taking office, President Obama has been very clear: America wishes to leave the Middle East and must shift its focus from Europe to East Asia. That is where the future lies — and where there is money to be made. Previous Secretary of State Hillary Clinton traveled extensively to the region to conduct trade talks and her successor, John Kerry, has continued those efforts. This week marks his fifth visit to Asia since becoming secretary of state.

Talks were certainly not limited to jovial discussions about economic cooperation. North Korea featured as a prominent agenda item, as did issues in the Middle East, climate change and the tensions surrounding the China Seas. The latter is a sensitive topic. China has not done itself any favors by claiming islands and territorial waters in the region. At the same time, the United States must account for its increased military presence in the contested waters.

Distrust

“The relationship between the U.S. and China is characterized by a strange mix of Cold War rhetoric and close ties, namely economic,” according to China expert Frans-Paul van der Putten. “America is attempting to convince China that it wishes to reinforce these ties, but has not succeeded to date. There is a deep-seated distrust.”

That mutual distrust has existed since the 19th century. China had long been a superpower in the region, rich and dominant, until becoming embroiled in two Opium Wars with the British (the aim of which was to force China to start importing British opium).

Van der Putten: “The Chinese see the Americans as successors to the British, believing that they are playing countries against each other in the region, and want nothing to do with the American desire to see closer economic ties go hand in hand with increased democracy and improved human rights.”

Conversely, the Americans see their presence in the area as a duty — if only to protect countries such as Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Vietnam. The U.S. has assured that it will initiate military action if China attacks one of its neighboring states. America has already provided these countries with additional military equipment.

“Kerry has good reason to visit South Korea and Japan, in addition to China,” notes van der Putten. “He wants to signal that the U.S. is not solely engaging with China. The Americans are in the process of setting up a Trans-Pacific Partnership in the form of a free trade zone and expect that Japan and South Korea will participate. While not openly stated, the idea is: ‘We will offer you military support, but in return we want economic prosperity.’”

Cold War?

Although the term “cold war” is often used to describe the relationship between China and the U.S., van der Putten suggests that the comparison is not entirely appropriate. “The game that is being played out between these two countries is much more subtle. At the time of the Cold War, both countries (America and the then-Soviet Union) stockpiled as many nuclear and other weapons as possible. In terms of technology, the Chinese still lag behind the Americans. While America is focusing on expensive aircraft carriers, China is betting on submarines, which are cheaper and can cause extensive damage to aircraft carriers. The Americans also excel in the area of information technology. China, in turn, is utilizing equipment to destroy American satellites.”

When Xi Jinping took office as president last year, the relationship between the two superpowers appeared to blossom for a while. In June, Obama and Xi engaged in discussion for two full days under the Californian sun at the Sunnylands summit — a meeting that would have been unimaginable in predecessor Hu Jintao’s time.

Distrust Remains

“The relationship has become more stable with the succession of Xi,” van der Putten agrees. “It is now clear who will be the strong-man for the next 10 years, which makes matters somewhat easier. But the mutual distrust remains.”

Van der Putten does not expect to see this change any time soon and believes that tensions will cause the relationship between the two countries to deteriorate further. “This state of affairs cannot continue for long without the occurrence of further incidents and clashes. The situation is beginning to look like a chess match, where the only moves you make are those agreeable to you and unfavorable towards the other. China will likely become larger and more dominant in the future, which challenges America’s desire to play a leading role in East Asia. As long as America fails to see China as an equal partner and China refuses to accept that America will continue to play a role in the region, their relationship will not improve.”

*Editor’s Note: The quotations in this article, accurately translated, could not be verified.