Obama on Crisis in Ukraine: Crossing Borders Without Consequences

As the situation in Ukraine is nearing a crisis point, the feeling of nervousness in Washington grows. On Friday, Barack Obama made a statement on short notice in the press room of the White House. “We are now deeply concerned by reports of military movements taken by the Russian Federation inside of Ukraine,” he said. Furthermore, he issued a warning to Moscow: “There will be costs for any military intervention.”

The strong words from the U.S. president are a stark reminder of the “red line” that he declared against the Syrian president in August 2012. However, this time, Obama does not state the price. Instead, he confirms that “the United States will stand with the international community in affirming that there will be costs for any military intervention in Ukraine.”

Washington’s freedom to act against Moscow is restricted. The U.S. hardly has any political leverage against Russia. Diplomatically, the U.S. is dependent on Moscow’s support in its situation with Iran and negotiations with Syria. Furthermore, Moscow can block decisions in the United Nations Security Council using its right to veto. Nobody in Washington wants to consider the possibility of an American military intervention in Ukraine.

Even before Obama’s statement, his secretary of state and security adviser had already sent a warning to Moscow. Both John Kerry and Susan Rice declared that a Russian military intervention in Ukraine would be a “serious error.” Moreover, U.S Vice President Joe Biden hosted a telephone conference with new Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk in order to pledge U.S. support for Yatsenyuk’s government.

Steinmeier Avoids the Issue

A Russian expert, who worked for several American administrations during the 1990s, speaks about the emergence of a “nightmare scenario” that many in Washington have feared since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. “Putin’s key goal has been to try to establish that Russia’s back,” says Andrew Weiss. He continues: “Now it looks like you’re reckoning with a Russia that is acting … in a very dangerous way.”

German Minister of Foreign Affairs Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who spent the second day of his inaugural visit to Washington on Friday, gave a speech the previous weekend in Kiev that was full of mediation attempts. He was joined by his French and Polish colleagues, who hoped their efforts might bring an end to the bloodshed.

However, there are doubts from the public about the use of European-Union politics, which could drive a wedge between Kiev and Moscow. Would it not make more sense to invite Ukraine, as well as Russia, to join the EU, one might ask. Steinmeier avoids the question. Russia is working toward her own Eurasian Union, answers the minister. Such an offer from the EU to Russia is therefore outdated.