Obama and Kerry Take a Stand on Ukraine

The U.S. president is not simply facing the most crucial geopolitical challenge of his presidency with Putin in Ukraine. In a way, he is also staking Europe’s future and America’s role in international affairs on his ability to credibly deter further Ukrainian border violations by Russia.

Clearly, Barack Obama is aware of this and, like Harry Truman or Ronald Reagan in their times, he has firmly backed Ukraine since Monday. The dry warning he sent to the Kremlin, and his urgent dispatch of Secretary of State John Kerry to Kiev on Tuesday, prove this. “If in fact they continue on the current trajectory they’re on, then we are examining a whole series of steps — economic, diplomatic — that will isolate Russia and will have a negative impact on Russia’s economy and status in the world,” he threatened.

“Not a single piece of credible evidence supports any one of these claims [from Russia about a danger to minorities],” added the secretary of state in a speech from Kiev that had Churchillian overtones. Kerry praised the Ukrainian government’s coolness and restraint in the face of Russian aggression. Russia is “out of excuses” for its intervention, he said, after denouncing Putin’s propaganda as lies. “The United States of America would prefer to see this de-escalate … but if Russia does not choose to de-escalate … [we] absolutely [have] no choice but to … expand upon steps we have taken in recent days in order to isolate Russia,” threatened Kerry. “We will stand with the people of Ukraine.”

Washington severed all military cooperation with Moscow and threatened new sanctions this week. The State Department suggested freezing Russian bank accounts and banning certain visas, actions likely to affect an elite group of Putin supporters with a presence in Europe. Kerry has also promised urgent bilateral aid credits to Kiev in the amount of $1 billion. A larger aid plan will be implemented with the help of the International Monetary Fund, he promised.

For his part, Obama’s position is made even more difficult by the fact that his adversary is a “political animal” located in a mental universe light years away from his own. He’s “in another world,” said Angela Merkel on Monday after a conversation with Putin. Some have wondered whether Obama, a man of consensus and good will — not to mention a former constitutional law professor operating in a paralyzing democratic environment — can truly hold his weight against former KGB colonel Vladimir Putin.

The Kremlin leader has done little to respond to the remarks from the West, for whom he does not hide his contempt. In 14 years of power, he has become accustomed to operating without safeguards or restraint in a Russian political scene that he has completely cleaned out, sometimes quite violently. A master of propaganda, he has used Russian television to create an alternate version of reality by linking together lies about the chaos that has engulfed Ukraine, all the while ignoring the fact that it was he who actually orchestrated the violence. He seems to believe in his own artifice, having developed an anti-Western paranoia that could be clouding his judgment. His press conference on Tuesday was hardly reassuring. If he seemed at all hesitant to push his pawns beyond Crimea in the face of America’s heavy-handed response, he nevertheless affirmatively reserved the right to send troops to Ukraine. “It would naturally be the last resort.” Still, the reactions from Obama and Kerry should give him pause because Russia remains a weak and disorderly country despite its show of force.

One of Obama’s difficulties will be achieving a consensus in Congress, where an isolationist streak currently divides the Republican Party. Conservative hawks like John McCain and Lindsay Graham “had better help him, instead of accusing him of being weak,”* noted former Ambassador Christopher Hill on CNN on Tuesday. Hill was annoyed by what he saw as unjust critiques coming at Obama at a crucial time. Obama’s most important challenge, however, will be the Europeans, who are equally divided over how to proceed. Angela Merkel, linked to Russia by powerful economic ties and dependence on gas, will probably be the hardest to convince.

*Editor’s note: The original quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.