Chinese-US Diplomatic Complications

President Obama has met with the exiled Dalai Lama three times in the last four years. Of the western powers, only the U.S. president dares to ignore political concerns with China and repeatedly test diplomatic tension with China. For former French President Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister David Cameron, the diplomatic difficulties that arise from meeting with the Dalai Lama are difficult to withstand. Europe’s “three musketeers” want to undertake the long and difficult diplomacy required to repair their relationships with China as diplomatic actions during Cameron’s 2013 visit to China demonstrate.

The source of Obama’s spine and courage to meet with the Dalai Lama for the third time comes from the strategic strength of the U.S. as the top power in the world. The U.S. does not think meeting with the Dalai Lama will cripple Chinese-U.S. foreign relations because China can only retaliate by condemning actions through protest. Obama meets with the Dalai Lama to prove the status of the U.S. as a sole superpower. Nevertheless, when Obama meets with the Dalai Lama, it is done discretely — some might even say covertly; the meeting places are not clearly specified, and what is discussed is not clear — with information leaked deliberately to nongovernment websites. Publicly, the U.S. emphasizes the recognition of Tibet as a part of China and does not support the “Free Tibet” movement. During their most recent meeting, Obama and the Dalai Lama lightly talked about religion and culture.

Of course, it is all not that simple. In the continued fast pace of Chinese diplomacy, China’s solemn stance on Obama’s meeting with the Dalai Lama is highlighted. Chinese-U.S. foreign relations begin the spring of 2014 with this disagreement, but this of course will not shake the foundations of the relationship between the two major powers on a larger scale. However, it highlights differences of opinion that are hard to get around for both parties.

The U.S. is returning to the geopolitical strategy of rebalancing in Asia, resulting in two unique tactics used in the political games between the U.S. and China. For starters, the actions by the U.S. are equal to dropping two deep-water bombs in the East and South China Seas, having inspired Japan and the Philippines to confront China over the sovereignty of disputed islands, thereby putting China in the difficult situation of having conflicts with neighboring countries. Furthermore, the U.S. is strengthening leadership power and arbitration in the western Pacific. Lastly, the U.S. has again stopped aiming for pacified consequences of its actions in Asia. Japan has isolated itself in Northeast Asia with its attitude regarding history and sex crimes during the war. With the deterioration of Chinese-Japanese relations, the U.S. fears getting involved in this new “Pacific war.”

In the Asia-Pacific region, the U.S. remains the leader, serving as arbiter in Chinese-Japanese foreign relations. However, looking at 2013 diplomatic relations, the U.S. was rather awkward, as Obama was dealing with internal conflicts in governmental politics, and at the same time was dealing with the PRISM incident. In matters such as civil unrest in Egypt, the U.S. is helpless, and Putin upstaged Obama regarding the mess in Syria; there was also drama in European and the BRIC countries’ diplomacy. In contrast, with the new Chinese leader, Chinese foreign relations became more open — including, of course, the meeting of the Chinese and U.S. leaders at Sunnylands last summer.

The strategic force of the U.S. still reigns superior, but its diplomatic influence is relatively lower. The U.S. can only depend on low-key confrontation with China to demonstrate the existence of U.S. strategic power since Obama is obviously using the Dalai Lama as a diplomatic pawn. Moreover, under current circumstances, the U.S. can only start from the traditional structured “3T” (trade, Taiwan and Tibet) strategy to take action. The trouble is that this “T” structure has continuously been used for trade between China and the United States. There is a trade deficit because of the yuan exchange rate, which has led to a trade war between the U.S. and China, and the more the trade war goes on, the closer foreign relations between the two countries become. Even while going through the global economic crisis in 2013, China grew to be second only to the U.S. in trade power. As for the “T” for Taiwan, not only is the U.S. uncooperative, but relations between Taiwan and the mainland also continue to improve, so that the U.S. can no longer use traditional weapon sales as leverage for change. This only leaves the Tibet “T” — the exiled Dalai Lama still having a certain amount of value. However, the end of the road for the Dalai Lama is near, and now, only the superficial layer of religion and culture is of use to the United States.

Talk between Obama and the Dalai Lama about religion and culture can be considered a real fact. Nevertheless, the political and diplomatic significance of Obama meeting with the Dalai Lama cannot be shaken — only the U.S. can repeatedly challenge China at its core, demonstrating U.S. global supremacy.

Of course, besides using the “3T” strategy to provoke China, Obama also has other goals. Before the upcoming visit to Japan, he wants to comfort the Japanese by letting them feel the U.S. checks and balances of power with China.

[Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo] Abe’s visit to the [Yasukuni] “war heroes” shrine caused the U.S. great disappointment. Secretary of State John Kerry’s visit to China confirmed a new era of diplomacy between China and America. His evaluation of Chinese-U.S. relations is very “constructive”* and “positive,”* and he expressed a desire to “set an example for this major-power relationship.” This diplomacy makes Japan look bad, and Japanese officials have said they are “disappointed” in the United States.

Obama’s recent meeting with the Dalai Lama was aimed at creating the impression of a structural contradiction between Chinese and U.S. politics. With the conflict between China and Japan, this is comforting to Japan. It is also part of the U.S. strategy to make itself the rebalancing power in Asia, proving its position as a facilitator and arbitrator.

It is also worth mentioning that Obama met with the Dalai Lama to anger the Chinese in order to cast a shadow over Chinese-U.S. relations, but this will not shake the foundation of new power relationships between China and the United States. The two countries quarrel without breaking apart because a structure for mutual benefit has already been established. Kerry, during his visit to China, declared, “The world is always waiting to see whether China and the United States can find the common ground despite some differences.” Whether it’s the Dalai Lama or “3T” structure bringing about conflict, China and the U.S. both have the wisdom to work together to resolve differences.

*Editor’s note: The original quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.