Let’s Watch Shinzo Abe Kissing Up to Obama

Obama arrived in Japan today, marking the start of his Asian trip. Tokyo is taking the visit very seriously, and it believes the trip will help its efforts in combating China. Abe and his colleagues have obviously taken too much for granted.

Obama’s visit does have the intention of soothing his Asian allies. But if all East Asian affairs only need a few words from the American president and his attitude in a visit, then the Asian countries and Washington have a relationship similar to a kindergarten class and its teacher. American power has been greatly exaggerated, and perhaps Tokyo is feeling sheepish, hence its illusion.

No matter what Obama’s actual plans are in visiting Japan and Korea, they are all part of a regular visit to Asia by the American president. The visit does not suggest any impact on East Asian geopolitics. America wants to be more proactive and balanced in its influence in Asia; America’s relationship to the countries in the region will not change from this visit.

Japan’s sensitivity to U.S.-Japan relations has developed into an intense attention to many details on the Asia-Pacific political stage, while China has become calmer and almost sloppy in its attitude. Such subtle changes are more profound than the fantastic show about to take the stage in Tokyo.

China’s Asian policies are becoming more mature and stable because we are being constrained by all kinds of influences, and losing our composure has become very unlikely. The Chinese are beginning to have a strategic initiative: It may not be stable yet, but past strategic anxieties are now more and more distant.

We do not believe that America’s re-balancing toward the Asia-Pacific region will be a subversive process, nor do we think that Washington would be confident in overly ambitious plans. The new major country relationship between the U.S. and China is partly based on the expectations of the two countries’ leaders, and it is based even more on what is possible. If the U.S. and China do not engage in major country relations, what else is possible? A Cold War? It would be ludicrous in the eyes of both countries’ policymakers.

There are provocations by Japan and the Philippines in the seas surrounding China, and such performances are becoming more and more exaggerated with American involvement. China’s reaction is partly based on our long-term policy on maritime problems and partly on the level of provocation by Japan and the Philippines. American attitude does have some influence, but it is not a deciding factor.

The back and forth between the U.S. and China regarding Asia-Pacific territories is the most press-worthy junction in the two countries’ relationship. The two sides each say what they want, and no one can decide the other’s attitude. Neither side is willing to break off a strategic relationship of “wait and see” due to these problems.

A common occurrence whenever there is a third party in U.S.-China relations: High-level American officials make some subtle gestures in Tokyo, and Beijing does not react. If Beijing feels the gestures were too over the top, it protests sharply. America would not press its advantage in East Asia now, because it has no support for such risks domestically and internationally.

If Japan chose to combat China in the long term, it would need to rely on its own power. The U.S.-Japan alliance is, at its core, a protection of American interests; it is not for Japan’s benefit. Japan is only America’s “political mistress.” While America would appease her occasionally, it would not stay devoted.

The Chinese media’s massive coverage of Obama’s Japan visit is due to a lack of other issues to cover. Japan should not assume that the Chinese really take the visit seriously, or that the Chinese are jealous because Obama did not visit China as well. There may be some Chinese online who are waiting for Abe’s kissing up to Obama, or for Obama to “say the wrong thing,” but it is more of an entertainment mindset.

Peace is the most important thing in East Asia. China feels as if it has more and more control in its peacekeeping initiative, and this is one of the most important sources of Chinese confidence. This is why, while Abe’s maneuvers are quite exaggerated now, China does not have a strong crisis awareness. Subjectively, America is bringing less and less of a sense of true crisis and sense of urgency to China.