Japan Is in No Position To Seek Vengeance from US

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 11 June 2014
by Jingtao Wang (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Anthony Chantavy. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
Western criticism of Japan’s failure to report its 640 kg plutonium incident is extremely downplayed. Japan is definitely a major suspect that has not been properly cross-examined. Nuclear under-reporting did not bring an actual loss to Japan, so apparently, Tokyo did it again. Think about it — if this so-called under-reporting took place in China, or if China uncovered Japan’s nuclear leak of three years ago, Western media would be ramming its head with us.

It is bad enough if this is only an ideological game, but Japan's nuclear under-reporting affects the core of the Asia Pacific’s nuclear safety. It is important to know that Japan is a highly industrialized country; it has enough resources to produce 5,000 nuclear missiles and the world's most advanced large-scale computer systems with the ability to simulate nuclear tests, all guaranteeing that it can in a very short time become the world's third nuclear power, second only to the United States and Russia. These facts constitute the biggest loophole in the global nonproliferation management.

Japan is the only country to have suffered nuclear attack — by the United States, now its ally and protector. Japan’s commemorations of the atomic bomb victims of Hiroshima and Nagasaki have run through half a century of reflection on World War II. Its desire for and awareness of the importance of the atomic bomb are carved in its bones and etched in its heart deeper than any other nuclear threshold country.

Japan’s right-wing desire for revenge has been suppressed in this half-century, but has not at all disappeared. It lurks in Japanese society’s sadness with its country being treated as a defeated nation up to now, and also in its hatred of China’s unimaginable rise. Ordinarily, the Japanese hate China for no reason; it was Japan that invaded China, but in the end, the one who dropped atomic bombs and based its soldiers on it was the United States. Japan is afraid to hate the United States, so it vents its anger and despair of still not having become a “normal country” on China.

China is only a potential threat to Japan. There is friction between them regarding the Diaoyu Islands, but China’s political influence over Japan is minimal. The one who really has the ability to decide Japan’s fate is the United States. If Japan wants to become a first-class military power once more, it really needs to go through the United States.

What’s disturbing is that the United States has been swinging between controlling and indulging Japan. With China’s rise, encouraging Japan to act as a tool to contain China has gradually become a priority for the United States. Long-term benefits protecting Japan have been eroded by China’s game rules. Japan fully sees this opportunity; it wants to use its connections with Washington as a key to unlock the strategic rope that has bound it for as long as 70 years.

Other things may be changing gradually and un-noticeably, but once the nuclear problem makes a breakthrough, the cage of Japanese militarism will collapse. The Asia Pacific political situation is bound to be rewritten. The U.S.-Japan alliance is not permanent; Japan with nuclear weapons has no reason to see U.S. troops in Japan as its protectors, and the same goes for non-occupant troops.

If Japan gets atomic bombs one day, targeting China would be unalterable logic. The geopolitical roulette wheel spins endlessly; it once prompted the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, and the United States tossed the world’s first two atomic bombs onto Japanese territory. Such deep hatred, even after being watered down and buried for 70 years, is still an intact seed.

The U.S. is keeping a close watch on Japan, but its bipartisan system promotes short-term interests. The United States has had lessons on asking for trouble, not that it really enjoys it, but it only does so for temporary purposes. Nuclear under-reporting and a prime minister paying homage to top World War II criminals all happened in the same country, the country that fought for its life with the United States: Japan. Its current obedience to Washington can only be a stopgap. The psychological analysis of its so-called "sincere obedience to the United States" is totally unreliable.

Japan’s right-wing goal is to re-emerge in the West Pacific. If fully implemented, its challenge of international order will be far greater than the United States’ friction with China. If Japan’s nuclear material is not securely controlled, and if nuclear possession becomes an untouchable topic for Japanese politicians, then the United States will sigh with regret in the end.


对于日本“漏报”640公斤钚的严重事件,西方舆论的批评可谓轻描淡写,大事化小。日本实为瞒报的重大嫌疑未受严厉追究,“核瞒报”并没给日本带来实际损失,东京需要做的好像也就是“重新填写一遍”。想想看,如果这样的所谓“漏报”发生在中国头上,或者中国出了三年前的日本核泄漏,西方舆论会怎样山崩地裂地对付我们。

  假使这只是意识形态游戏,也就罢了,但日本的核瞒报触及亚太核安全的核心。要知道,日本是高度工业化国家,储存了可以制造5000枚核弹的核材料,它还有世界最先进的大型计算机系统,具备模拟核试验的能力,这一切保障了它可以在极短时间内迅速成为仅次美俄的世界第三核大国。这些事实已经构成了全球核不扩散管理的最大漏洞。

  日本是唯一遭受过核打击的国家,实施打击的就是它今天的盟友兼保护者美国。日本对广岛、长崎原子弹受难者的各种纪念贯穿了其半个多世纪对二战的“反思”,日本人对原子弹重要性的认识和对它的渴望,要比任何其他核门槛国家都更加刻骨铭心。

  日本右翼的复仇愿望,在这半个多世纪里一直受到压制,但并没有消失。它潜伏在日本社会不满国家至今被当成战败国对待的悲情里,也潜伏在他们对中国崛起莫名其妙的憎恶中。按说日本人是没理由恨中国的,近代以来一直是日本侵略中国,最后扔原子弹、对它实行军事占领的则是美国。日本是不敢恨美国,找一个可以恨的中国发泄其至今仍成为不了“正常国家”的愤怒和绝望。

  中国只是日本的“潜在威胁”,两国在钓鱼岛弹丸之地摩擦,中国政治上影响日本的能力微乎其微。真正有能力决定日本国家命运的是美国,如果日本要重新成为一流军事强国,它真正要过的是美国关。

  令人不安的是,美国一直在控制和放纵日本之间摇摆。随着中国崛起,鼓励日本充当制华工具逐渐成了美国的优先考虑,防控日本的长期利益受到与中国博弈需求的侵蚀。而日本充分看到了这个机会,它希望把同华盛顿的相互利用当成一把钥匙,解开已捆绑了它长达70年的战略绳索。

  其他的或许还都是量变,但核问题一旦突破,锁住日本军国主义的笼子就将崩塌,亚太地缘政治局面必将改写。美日同盟不是永恒的东西,拥核的日本没理由把驻日美军继续看成是自己的保护者,而非占领军。

  如果有一天日本有了原子弹,不存在它们一定要瞄准中国的铁定逻辑。地缘政治的轮盘总是转个不停,它曾经促使日本偷袭珍珠港,美国把人类最初的两颗原子弹仍向日本领土,这样一份深仇大恨即使经过70年的淡化和深埋,仍然是一颗完好的种子。

  美国对日本的警惕并没有沉睡,但它的两党轮流坐庄制度促使了短线利益的强势。美国有过养虎为患的教训,并非美国真的喜欢虎,而是它有时贪恋虎的临时性用途。核瞒报与首相参拜二战甲级战犯发生在同一个国家,它就是曾经与美国殊死搏斗的日本。它今天对华盛顿的顺从只能是权宜之计,所谓日本“真心服从美国”的心理分析全都靠不住。

  日本右翼的目标是在西太平洋上重新崛起,这一目标如果全面付诸实施,它对国际秩序的挑战将远远大于美国从中国感受到的“摩擦”。不彻底管住日本的核材料,不把拥核变成日本政治家碰都不能碰的话题,美国终将有长叹“何必当初”的那一天。
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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