Will America’s Anger Make Japan Abandon North Korea Diplomacy?

Japanese Prime Minister Abe is white with fear. By running headlong into the North Korean abduction issue, he has made America furious. Secretary of State Kerry warned Foreign Minister Kishida directly that Japan is undermining the cooperation between the U.S., Japan and South Korea to put pressure on North Korea, which is creating an unusual situation in which the US is trying to put a stop to Abe’s visit to North Korea.

“The Prime Minister’s office is painting a scenario in which they do a ‘blitz visit’ to North Korea in September, in order to bring back the abductees. As things are now — although it depends on the circumstances — the Japanese lower house of the Diet will be dissolved, and they intend to rush headlong into the October general election. They are already sending signals to North Korea to return a certain number of people. If Abe visits, his ratings will no doubt go up, but suddenly America has begun to butt in, which has thrown the entire Abe administration off balance, ” says a government official.*

Understanding America’s complaints, Foreign Minister Kishida has hurriedly arranged a visit to the United States next week.

The U.S. Dislikes Abe Even under Normal Circumstances

The U.S. is taking the threat of North Korea’s nuclear development seriously. As long as they continue to not give up their nuclear program, America intends to increase their economic sanctions on North Korea at a moment’s notice.

Nevertheless, Abe is trying to relieve the economic sanctions in return for a resolution to the abduction issue and, furthermore, is pushing for more economic aid to North Korea. From the Americans’ perspective, their thoughts are most likely, “what if North Korea uses aid money for their nuclear development instead?”

If Abe ignores America’s warnings and goes ahead with his diplomatic visit to North Korea or provides economic aid, there can be no mistaking that America’s temper will flare. Even ignoring that, President Obama already does not like Abe. As expected, it really comes down to whether Abe will visit North Korea or not.

“Since Prime Minister Abe’s approval rating has begun to fall, his only remaining card left to play to bring it back up is the abduction issue. Going into fall, some major problems are bearing down on the Abe administration. An economic downturn is just around the corner, and a brutal struggle for governor positions in Okinawa and Fukushima prefectures is brewing. There’s a very real possibility that by the end of the year his approval and disapproval ratings will switch places. So, by all means he absolutely wants to visit North Korea to bolster his support rate. He’s being driven into a corner where he basically cannot help but visit North Korea. By continually supplying reports on the return of Japanese nationals, Abe will increase the domestic expectations of Japan. But that doesn’t mean that Abe can go against America’s wishes. Right now the rumors are that by the end of August there will be an announcement of the cancellation of the North Korea visit. North Korea is also expected to perform a nuclear test at the end of August. Given the timing, if they criticize North Korea about its nuclear testing then, a breakdown of Japan-North Korea relations will be seen,” says an Liberal Democratic Party official.

The Abe administration really does not want to anger the United States. But on the other hand, if they throw away their North Korea card, they can’t expect to see an improvement in approval ratings. Prime Minister Abe is most likely writhing in agony.