US Elections: But What About Latin America?

The declining empire’s 2014 midterm elections, at a cost of no less than $4 billion, have confirmed a sweeping rejection of President Barack Obama’s administration, of the dominant political party system and of the pay-to-play purchase of political office in the heartland of democracy.

Before the results were out, the question in Latin American and the Caribbean was still: What about Latin America? Even in the unlikely scenario that the Democratic Party had regained control of the House of Representatives and held on to the Senate, U.S. policy in the region would likely have changed very little.

Nonetheless, the current political situation will allow Obama to move forward on two issues of key interest to Latin America and the Caribbean if he wields his immense executive powers in areas where he is not obliged to seek Congressional authorization. The first issue is immigration. Obama could take significant measures that would reduce the number of deportations to a minimum.

The second issue, curiously, is the previously thorny question of the normalization of relations with Cuba. Domestic political opinion has shifted substantially, with a majority of Americans now in favor of lifting sanctions and normalizing relations with Cuba. The same trend can be seen among Cubans in the southern Florida, where only a minority still cling to their traditional, intransigent position. More and more Cuban-Americans are eager to have a normal relationship with their country of origin and forge stronger ties with family members across the water, and their number is growing in size and influence. The business community is also strongly behind opening up to Cuba, with big-name companies and the powerful Chamber of Commerce supporting a change.

In the international arena, the United States is alone in its conduct toward Cuba, despite the transnational nature of its punishing trade sanctions policy. Several companies and banks belonging to U.S. allies, the French bank BNP Paribas among them, have paid out multimillion-dollar fines as a result of the policy. The United Nations General Assembly’s overwhelming vote against the U.S. embargo on Cuba has reinforced U.S. isolation, with even the closest of U.S. allies, the United Kingdom among them, announcing decisions to trade and invest in Cuba.

The New York Times, America’s most important and influential newspaper, has published four editorials in the last four weeks calling for the normalization of relations with Cuba. These editorials include several of the arguments given above, truths that are beyond doubt from an objective viewpoint. The New York Times is the mouthpiece for a major section of the establishment and would not launch such a barrage of journalistic artillery if it were not following a coldly calculated cost-benefit analysis of what the normalization of relations with Cuba could mean. Obama’s moment to act is now, right after the midterms.

Cuba’s singular efforts in the fight to control the Ebola virus epidemic in West Africa have also cast the country in a favorable light. Secretary of State John Kerry has commended Cuba and placed Havana and Washington side by side in the aid effort, according to a statement made by Samantha Power, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations.

Obama promised a new beginning at the 2009 Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago, and we are still waiting for it. Using his executive powers to relax the trade blockade could bring about the fulfillment of that promise now and reestablish diplomatic relations with Cuba.

Such a move would elicit unanimous approval across all the nations of Latin America and the Caribbean, where America’s hostile, exclusive policy against Cuba is seen as a grave offense against the sovereignty of the region. It would also, for the first time in a long time, work to significantly reduce strain and tension in the global arena and win international recognition for Obama and the United States.

Given Cuba’s prestige in the region, added to the fact that Obama and President Raul Castro are set to meet face-to-face at the next Summit of the Americas in Panama in April 2015, the United States stands to gain huge political rewards if these measures are put in place by then.