Past American Realities

Angela Merkel and Barack Obama managed to demonstrate a superficial transatlantic union during their meeting in Washington. In front of the press, they used keywords like friendship and unity and raised hopes for the upcoming negotiations in Minsk on Wednesday.

Until then, so the president indicated, he is open to giving diplomatic negotiations with Russia a chance. If negotiations fail, however, discussions with the U.S. will take a sharper tone — and the German chancellor will have no bearing on them. Merkel’s arguments opposing the delivery of weapons won’t matter anymore once diplomacy has reached its limits.

Despite the fact that the Ukraine conflict highlights the importance of a uniform approach by the West, the debate in the U.S. on how to act on this conflict has not been driven by foreign policy considerations alone for the longest time.

America is in the middle of an election campaign. Campaign maneuvering in Washington began a long time ago, despite the fact that Obama’s successor won’t be elected until November 2016. That demonstrates the continuously increasing domestic pressure that is pushing the president toward authorizing the sending of weapons to Ukraine.

That the Republicans are running out of diplomatic patience is not surprising. The conservatives like to appeal to the electorate by demonstrating the military strength of the protecting power, the United States. But even the Democrats’ support for delivering weapons appears to be conclusive from a domestic point of view.

Putin as the Opponent

Let’s take Hillary Clinton. In addition to members of Congress, there are also advisers and candidates for a potential future cabinet under a President Hillary Clinton who support the delivery of weapons on paper. Within her party, Clinton is rather positioned in the middle; she has to take a position in preparation for her candidacy. A far too soft attitude, rejecting any kind of military option completely, would not be wise strategically, both when positioning herself within her party and considering the public’s perception.

Especially with an opponent named Vladimir Putin. American media increasingly describe the weakness within the American strategy, and how Russia gains advantage from that. That picture is not in line with America’s self-perception as a super power – regardless of whether one is a Democrat or a Republican. That the global world has dramatically changed since the Cold War is, in that respect, only a marginal consideration and irrelevant when soliciting support at home.

A hesitant Barack Obama, who is mainly going to be concerned about writing his own history, won’t be able to avoid that pressure in case Merkel’s and Europe’s final diplomatic attempts fail in Minsk. Domestic interests, that is, American reality, will take priority over transatlantic relationships.