America Not Isolated without Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

Published in Sohu
(China) on 2 April 2015
by Xinhua Deng (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Anthony Chantavy. Edited by Bora Mici.
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has confirmed a starting line-up of 46 countries. The United States and Japan did not join. Several of the AIIB's founding members are old allies of the U.S. that a lot of media make out to be defectors who left the U.S. all alone.

Such an interpretation pleases China's patriots. However, the United States might be unwise not to enter the AIIB. It will definitely make an impact on U.S. diplomacy, but the U.S. is not necessarily isolated. According to Scott Kennedy, a Chinese studies scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, most countries do not see joining the AIIB as a matter of choosing sides between China and America, but as being in two organizational structures at once. In sum, they are getting the best of both worlds. Harmony brings wealth, and lonesome America is out of the picture.

Even with its reluctance, the U.S. government is certainly embarrassed about preventing its allies from earning money, and of course cannot turn on its allies because of their cooperation with China. It would actually be a victory for America to join the AIIB. In this day and age, stubborn pride does not work in international interaction; it is more practical to see the benefits of things.

Today's international financial setup is completely different from what it was decades ago.

Two of the largest international financial setups, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, were established at the end of 1940, the former designed for boosting international currency cooperation and the latter for helping the poor. One could say that they are financial organizations with "feelings." The Asian Development Bank was established in 1966 when Japanese people who became rich and reformed followed the U.S. in "efforts" to help the poor in exchange for international discourse.

Feelings are nice and all, but what about results?

The IMF would ask the countries it has saved from financial crises to be more careful and expand marketization. At that time, people controlling the IMF understood that more money was not enough to save a country's finance system. Give a man a fish, feed him for a day; teach a man to fish, feed him for a lifetime.

In recent years, however, the IMF has forgotten its tradition of boosting the financial market. It goes everywhere shouting "stimulate the economy" and "quantitative easing" with every country's government, but with the world's financial crisis being this widespread, how much money does the IMF have to stimulate the economy? Thus, naturally, its status has fallen.

The IMF has changed similarly to the United States. In Reagan's time, the U.S. government had a vivid ideology, and that was promoting marketization. After Reagan, though, each U.S. president was worse than the last. Obama, for example, talks "change," but in what direction? He doesn't know either, and in reality, he did a lot of things that hurt the market.

America itself has no “feelings.” Its international financial setup has also lost its "feelings." What else is new?

The AIIB makes it clear: Wouldn't America like us to help it build basic facilities? What right does the heartless U.S. have to ask its Asian allies to say no? Now that its European allies have grasped the opportunity to join the AIIB, there is nothing that the U.S. can say about the issue. All it can do is plead not to be left alone, but this is actually nothing for it to worry about. In this age of "no permanent friends, and only permanent interests," what do you do when someone is isolated?


 亚投行确定首发阵容46国,美国、日本不加入亚投行。创始成员国很多是美国的传统盟友,很多媒体解读为这些盟友叛逃,美国被孤立。
  这样的解读让中国的爱国主义者高兴。但,美国不加入亚投行或许是失策,这对美国的外交肯定有影响,但要说美国被孤立,则未必。如美国的战略与国际问题研究中心中国问题高级研究员肯尼迪(Scott Kennedy)所说,绝大多数国家没有把加入亚投行看成是一个“必须在中美两国各自主导的体系之间选边站”的事情,而是同时加入两种机构。总之,就是两边的钱都赚,和气生财,谈不上孤立美国。
  就算心有不愿,美国政府肯定不好意思阻碍盟友赚钱,当然更不会因为盟友与中国合作而跟盟友翻脸。其实美国自己就应该加入亚投行,以获取利益。在这个时代,在国际交往中死要面子是行不通的,谈利益更实际。
  这个时代的国际金融机构和几十年前比,早就面目全非。
  两个最大的国际金融机构——国际货币基金组织和世界银行都成立于1940年代末,前者的宗旨是促进国际货币合作,后者的宗旨是扶贫,可以说,是很有“情怀”的国际金融机构。亚洲开发银行成立于1966年,是日本人改革开放富起来后,也跟着美国玩扶贫的“情怀”以获取国际话语权的产物。
  “情怀”是好的,但结果如何呢?
  以国际货币基金组织来说,早年它帮助陷入金融困境的国家,都会要求受助国在金融上更谨慎和扩大市场化。那时候,国际货币基金组织的掌控者明白,靠填钱是救不了一个国家的金融体系的,授人以鱼不如授人以渔。
  但是近些年来,国际货币基金组织早就忘了它的促进金融市场化的传统,到处跟着各国政府喊“刺激经济”、“宽松货币”。全世界金融危机范围这么广,国际货币基金组织有几个钱去刺激经济?于是,它的地位衰落,也是自然之事。
  其实国际货币基金组织的转变,和美国自身的转变也有关系。在里根时代,美国政府是有鲜明的意识形态的,那就是推动市场化。但里根之后,美国总统是一蟹不如一蟹。比如奥巴马,空喊“变革”,但往什么方向变革呢?奥巴马自己也没谱。而实践上,他做了很多反市场的事。
  美国自己都没“情怀”了,它主导的国际金融机构失去“情怀”,又有什么好奇怪的呢?
  亚投行则比较明确:帮你建基础设施,你要不要?失去“情怀”的美国,又有什么资格去要求它的亚洲盟友们说“不”?至于欧洲盟友,要加入亚投行才有机会,美国自然也说不出阻止的话。它也只有求个“不被孤立”了,而这,其实是它不需要担心的。在这个“没有永远的朋友 只有永远的利益”的时代,人家孤立你干什么?
  (作者为人文经济学会特约研究员)
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