The Desirable Defeat

The picture will certainly linger in the annals of history, along with the lifeless body of Che Guevara or Nelson Mandela leaving prison. In this case, it’s a simple handshake. The Cuban averts his gaze while the first African-American president seeks it, unsuccessfully. The great newspapers of the world pitch the same line: turning the page, new era, another America. And they have a point, but the festive day also conceals and deceives.

Hours prior to the historic meeting between Obama and Raul Castro in Panama, dissidents were subjected to blows by the Cuban dictatorship for daring to express their views during official celebrations. Little was said about it, as if it were normal for governments to repress dissidents in other sovereign territories. The greeting shaped the open stance of an Obama who seems to have decided to build his legacy — annoyances included — on openness toward Cuba and negotiations with Iran. His country’s economy is recovering and its operating margins are growing. But in fact, a fierce dictatorship sat at the table at the Summit of the Americas, and the end of the embargo hasn’t passed through Congress. Everything goes on as usual.

There are various lessons to be learned. First, economic blockades do little to promote democracy. Second, nationalism is a weapon powerful enough to make a people endure hunger and humiliation for decades. Third, democratic values aren’t as powerful as we believe. Fourth, the extreme inflexibility of principles, democracy and nationalism, can be a trap. The greeting is a terrible lesson for democracy — half a century of dictatorship, and Castro is so smug. Even worse, you can come out on top, subduing the world’s chief superpower and trampling on fundamental rights. The paradoxes of life: This greeting was a slap in the face for those principles, but nevertheless a victory too. The Castro dictatorship continues, but the dissenters have been listened to, and global pressure will increase. There are numerous semi-dictatorial nations or authoritarian regimes in the region, like Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador and in its own way, Argentina, for whom the Castros’ triumph demonstrates that there are certain beliefs that can crush democracy. However, Cuba will be obliged to democratize.

This defeat was desirable, in order to escape the trap. The Cubans have paid the price of both sides’ harshness. The déténte should be measured by how it brings tangible benefits to these human beings, benefits that remain to be seen. We have, therefore, an apparent defeat of principles, but a possible victory for pragmatism. The wager should be different, which would benefit not only Cubans, but the entire world. The embargo grew the dictatorship’s roots. The military option didn’t work. In Panama democratic nations had to eat crow, since the oppression continues. But then, why celebrate that handshake?

Beyond just Obama’s good intentions and Castro’s needs, the world is moving. We know that trade is a great civilizing agent. Human rights were born through trade; human rights and democracies have found a great ally in trade — I recommend “A Splendid Exchange: How Trade Shaped the World” by W. J. Bernstein. The half-century embargo was poison; it kindled nationalism and prevented universal human rights standards and democracy from making inroads on the island, exactly the opposite of what was hoped for. The embargo was an antidote to democratization in Cuba. But the world goes on.

The Americas will be less than 10 percent of the world population in 2050. Europe, the United States’ great historical ally, will be even less at 8 percent. One out of every four people on earth will live in Africa. If the United States really wants to continue leading, it must look at the world as a whole. In that case, Latin America is an extremely important potential market. The whole continent could reach 800 million consumers. This by itself is a good reason to look south. If we factor in the cultural abyss in the Muslim world, then Latin America is even friendlier in terms of cultural proximity.

But there’s another factor that Julio Faesler recalled in this publication: China. More than 1.3 billion inhabitants, foreign direct investment close to that of the U.S. at more than $50 trillion; the U.S. imports four times as many Chinese goods as it sends to China. Commercial treaties: U.S. – 76, China – 124. China is already the third-largest investor in Latin America and is moving fast. The big winner in this greeting is trade and its civilizing consequences. Chinese authoritarianism is also in the free world’s spotlight. International trade, which they have embraced so tenaciously, is forcing them to open up. In the global world, balances of power change extremely quickly. In the 21st century competition will help democracy in Cuba … and in China. That’s the good news.