Why Hillary Will Play the ‘Republican Democrat’

Published in Beijing News
(China) on 14 April 2015
by Tao Duanfang (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Nathan Hsu. Edited by Laurence Bouvard.
On April 12, Hillary Clinton posted a meticulously-prepared video on Facebook that officially announced her bid to win the Democratic nomination for the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

Within the video, she states that "Everyday Americans need a champion, and I want to be that champion." As the video's "extras" begin to wax poetic about the American dream, Clinton claims that she is just the person to make sure it stays alive and well.

But reading between the lines of the script, as the official prologue of the 2016 election, it would seem that the video Clinton's team has painstakingly rehearsed over weeks behind closed doors as their opening move has been carefully sculpted for the ear of a few specific groups.

Despite the fact that the video made a palpable effort to depict various slices of "American life," the middle class featured most prominently by far, the term "American dream" being a classic middle-class rallying cry. This comes as no surprise, as the middle class comprises the backbone of American society and represents two key pillars of U.S. elections — minor political contributions and votes, and a highly active community, factors that have proven vital to a successful campaign.

Traditionally, the American middle class has identified more with Republican neoconservatism, with even the term "the American dream" being more often bandied about by Republicans and neocons. When Hillary's husband, former President Bill Clinton "appropriated" this hallmark of Republican campaigns, he was derided as the "Republican Democrat." As first lady, Hillary intentionally remained relatively distinct from her husband, and was viewed as espousing more traditional Democratic values. Now, however, she is taking a page out of her husband's book, and as surveys have shown Bill Clinton to be the most well-received U.S. president of the past 25 years, Hillary will not mind risking being labeled a "Republican Democrat," instead focusing on painting a picture of a brighter future for the electorate.

In the video, Americans from all walks of life make an appearance in much the same style as President Obama's campaign ads, the objective clearly being to consolidate the Democratic base, as well as attract the youth, women's, minority and other so-called "Obama alliance" votes. But as a whole, the video is a kaleidoscope of color in form only, with the middle class remaining the dominant hue. This shows that between "preserving the base" by catering to the core Democratic vote and "walking the middle ground" to win over swing voters, Clinton has chosen the latter. Such is not merely a reflection upon her political character, but is more due to her team taking the current electoral landscape into consideration. Unlike in 2008, Clinton is now virtually unrivaled within the Democratic Party, and the most grueling competition will come in the general election. Her likely opponent there will be the similarly-pedigreed Jeb Bush, making approval among moderates of paramount importance. In any case, she is unlikely to lose her own core vote, and may even be able to turn any mudslinging directed at her in her favor.

But as some analysts have pointed out, while the video lays out a grand narrative in characteristically crisp style, Clinton must learn to listen to and interact with the voters, making them feel that they are truly being heard. This may prove difficult for one who is more used to speaking her own mind on matters, but learn she must, as her very political future may depend upon it.


当地时间4月12日,希拉里·克林顿在Facebook上公布了一段精心录制的视频,正式宣布参加2016年美国总统大选民主党候选人提名资格争夺。

  在这段视频中,希拉里称“每天美国人都需要一个冠军,我想成为冠军”,并让片中的“群众演员”说出“美国梦需要有人捍卫”,而她本人则表示,自己正是那个捍卫者。

  听话听音,锣鼓听声,作为2016年选举的正式“开场白”,希拉里团队闭门数周精心准备的“当头炮”,这段视频自然是有所喻指,通俗讲,就是说给特定人群听的。

  尽管视频里的“美国生活”力求多层面,但着墨最多的显然是中产阶级,甚至“美国梦”口号本身也是典型的中产阶级口号。这并不奇怪,美国是一个中产阶级为骨干的社会,而中产阶级又是美国选举政治中两大关键环节——小额政治献金和投票、最活跃的群体,这两大环节又恰是胜选之命门。

  传统上美国中产阶级更认同共和党的新保守主义,甚至“美国梦”口号本身,也是由共和党和新保守主义者率先喊响的,当年希拉里·克林顿的丈夫、前总统比尔·克林顿在参选时就曾“盗取”这一共和党口号,并因此被嘲讽为“共和民主党人”。在当第一夫人时刻意和丈夫保持一定“色差”、言论更贴近传统民主党特色的希拉里,如今却仿效起乃夫当年的套路,奥妙在于民调显示,比尔·克林顿是25年来最受好评的美国总统,正因如此,希拉里才不惜甘冒“共和民主党人”之讥,要在参选视频里反复给选民们“造梦”。

  视频中五花八门的美国人形象,似乎在效仿当年奥巴马的套路,目的显然在巩固民主党基本盘,并尽力吸引年轻人、妇女、少数民族等所谓“奥巴马联盟”的选票。但纵观整个视频,“多色彩”更多体现在形式上,中产阶级仍然是整个视频的主色彩。这表明在“保基本盘”取悦民主党核心票仓和“走中间路线”争取摇摆选民两难中,希拉里选择了倾向后者。这并非仅仅因为其政治色彩本就如此,而更多是选情的考量:和2008年不同,此番希拉里在民主党内几无对手,最激烈的竞争将发生在党际,对手则可能是同样出身世家的杰布·布什,如此一来“中性路线”就显得十分重要,反正民主党核心选票相对不容易流失,且对手的攻讦有时候还能帮自己的忙。

  但也有一些分析家指出,这段视频一如既往充满其所擅长的宏大叙事和演讲风格,但“她必须学会倾听和与选民交谈”,要让对话者觉得自己真的在听他们说话——这对习惯于自说自话的希拉里而言恐怕不太容易,但她必须学会,因为她的政治未来很大程度上取决于此。
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