The Iran Nuclear Issue: Capitalize and Close the Deal

Published in Tokyo Shimbun
(Japan) on 4 April 2015
by Editorial (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Chris Hennessy. Edited by Bora Mici.
At a multilateral meeting on the Iran nuclear issue, a deal toward a "framework" has been reached. The deal represents meaningful progress toward curtailing Iran’s nuclear program. In order to stabilize the Middle East, Iran and the West must work together toward a final agreement.

Foreign ministers from Iran and six other nations – the five permanent member nations of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany – met repeatedly in Switzerland for discussions. According to the framework of the agreement, Iran would be limited in its nuclear development for the next 10 to 15 years. Iran would further have to reduce the number of centrifuges that can produce enriched uranium by one-third and limit its enrichment facilities to one. Its remaining two nuclear facilities would be modified for other uses. Iran must also allow officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency to periodically inspect any nuclear-related facilities.

The United States and the European Union have agreed to lift sanctions if Iran fulfills all parts of the agreement. On the other hand, if Iran were to violate the agreement, a mechanism would be in place to immediately restart the sanctions. If Iran executes the agreement faithfully, a nuclear crisis would be dodged from the U.S.-Europe perspective by the large-scale delay in Iran’s nuclear development. Russia and China have shown cooperation in the greater international community by being lockstep with the United States during the so-called "marathon negotiations."

In order to revive its economy through oil and gas resources, limiting its nuclear development was a necessity for Iran to work toward the lifting of sanctions. It was reported recently that Iranians are anticipating greatly improved economic conditions. The deadline for a final agreement is June 30, but there are still difficult hurdles to overcome, such as the amount of inspection authority granted to the IAEA.

Despite these setbacks, this is the best chance the world has seen to resolve this issue. The United States chose a diplomatic solution over a military one. Iran’s President Rouhani has turned to a policy of dialogue over confrontation with the United States. Unlike the case of North Korea, this agreement was formed by the international community under the umbrella of the U.N. Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. We hope that Iran and the West can smoothly reach a final agreement.

The West first demanded a complete halt to Iran’s nuclear program, but switched to a policy allowing for the peaceful use of energy. However, there are still deep-seated, hardliner arguments from the U.S. Congress, where Republicans currently hold a majority, that the United States should continue pursuing the complete abandonment of a nuclear program by Iran.

In this framework agreement, there is no demand for Iran to shut down its nuclear facilities. Israel strongly opposes the deal, so the threat of military conflict is still real. The important issue facing the Obama administration now is convincing the U.S. Congress and international allies on the merits of the deal.


イラン核問題 好機生かし最終合意を

2015年4月4日


 イランの核問題をめぐる多国間協議で、解決に向けた「枠組み」で合意した。核開発に歯止めをかける、意味のある前進と言える。中東の安定のため、イラン、欧米とも最終合意を目指すべきだ。

 イランと、国連安全保障理事会の五常任理事国にドイツを加えた六カ国の外相らがスイスで協議を重ねた。

 枠組み合意によると、イランは今後十~十五年、核開発計画を大幅に制限する。濃縮ウランが製造できる遠心分離機の設置数を現在の三分の一まで減らすとともに、濃縮施設は一カ所だけとし、残る二カ所の核施設は活動内容を変更する。さらに国際原子力機関(IAEA)がすべての核関連施設に定期的に立ち入ることを認める。

 これに対し、米国と欧州連合(EU)はイランが合意をすべて履行すれば制裁を解除する。逆に違反があれば、直ちに制裁を復活するという二段構えで臨む。

 イランが合意通り実行すれば、核開発は大幅に遅れ、欧米から見れば当面の核危機を回避できる。ロシア、中国も「マラソン交渉」で米国と足並みをそろえ、国際社会の連携を示した。

 イランにとっても石油、天然ガス資源を活用して経済再生を図るには、核開発を抑制して制裁解除を目指す必要があった。国民の間には、これから経済がよくなると期待が膨らんでいるという。

 最終的な合意の期限は六月三十日だが、IAEAの査察の権限がはっきりしないなど、難問は依然残る。

 それでも、今はこれまでにない好機である。欧米は軍事力ではなく、外交による解決を選んだ。イランのロウハニ大統領は米国との対話路線にかじを切った。今回は北朝鮮のケースとは異なり、核拡散防止条約(NPT)体制の中での、国際社会による合意である。イラン、欧米とも最終合意まで着実に進むよう望みたい。

 欧米は当初、イランに核開発そのものを断念するよう要求したが、エネルギーなど平和利用は認めると方針を変えた。共和党が多数を占める米議会では、制裁を強化して核断念に追い込むべきだとの強硬論が根強い。

 枠組み合意では、イランは保有する核施設の閉鎖を要求されなかった。軍事転用の抜け穴になるとの懸念は消えず、イスラエルは合意を強く批判する。オバマ政権が国内、さらに同盟国をどう説得するかも焦点になる。
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