Oops, She Did It Again

Here is the paradox: The most famous candidate for the White House is also the biggest enigma. You may not be interested in American politics, but you still have heard her name. On the other hand, even her most ardent supporters, who followed her prolific career closely, will have difficulty telling you exactly what she intends to do in regard to taxes, the employment rate, revenue or the deal with Iran that was just struck by President Obama.

She’s been a public figure for decades, yet Hillary’s principles and basic political stands remain remarkably undefined. According to sources from her team, in the last months before she announced her entry into the 2016 presidential race on April 12, she had talked to hundreds of experts, focusing economic topics on inequality, and foreign policy ones on the Middle East and Russia. Up to now, though, her campaign has been surprisingly scarce in content. If she intends to sweep away the doubts hanging over her character and her motives, Hillary needs to give a clearer picture of the president she wants to be.

A Second Chance for a First Impression

The expectation that she is destined to win marks her candidacy with inevitability, a tricky dividend that may turn into a slippery road. The failure of her first attempt to enter the White House is also looming over. Seven years later, her first steps into the race show she learned a lesson in 2008. Instead of a solemn and flashy opening, she made her announcement through social media, launching a short, well-balanced video that presents her as the champion of ordinary Americans. Surprisingly, after the announcement she departed on a 665 mile journey in a minivan named “Scooby,” from her home in the state of New York to Iowa, where her first campaign appearance took place in a simple and plain style.

According to Robert Shapiro, a professor at Columbia University’s political science department, to secure a victory Hillary needs to reinforce support from the liberal base of her party, immigrant groups such as Latinos and Americans of Asian origin, the youngsters and above all, women. She would also have to add other white voters to her camp, primarily from the middle class. “Looking at the way she gave a start to her campaign, she knows it,” Professor Shapiro told our newspaper.

But there are other challenges ahead: How can she draw voters’ interest toward a public figure that has been part of the political space for such a long time that most people have an established opinion about her? How can a politician who has become a world superstar have a warm, human, ordinary conversation with voters while being chased by a crowd of reporters? How can she re-energize the fatigue surrounding the name “Clinton,” and all the real and imaginary scandals looming over it? And how will she handle the overpowering political luggage she carries with her from two previous presidencies — her husband Bill’s term in office and the administration of Barack Obama, who made her secretary of state during his first term in office, after defeating her in the Democratic primaries seven years ago?

The Strength of Weakness

“The experience she gained during her first presidential race and her secretary of state tenure will be of great help,” believes Professor Shapiro. “Besides, the political issues she has to tackle now are somewhat different than they were in 2008. She won’t have to start her campaign by fighting a candidate from her own party, but rather her opponents from the Republican Party, who will attack her far more fiercely than the Democrats did seven years ago.” Indeed, at least for the moment, Hillary does not have any competition from her own party — there is no threat on the horizon that may develop into the phenomenal rise of Obama, who took away from her a victory perceived as guaranteed.

Her attitude toward Obama’s presidency could easily become a vulnerable spot, drawing conservative attacks. The delicate balance she needs is to build upon the achievements of the president she worked with and spare criticism, but at the same time to distance herself and prevent the Republicans from attacking her over the current presidency. Some signals already point out that public scrutiny is detrimental to her — according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey in mid-January, 50 percent of Democrats named Hillary Clinton their first choice for president, while in April that number has dropped to 38 percent.

Aside from her rich political experience, Hillary’s strengths include recognizability beyond the reach of most candidates, powerful financial resources and a well-built campaign machine. Formulating clear messages is her best way out of the arena where Republican smears and negative campaigns are trying to corner her. “The best way to create positive news is to introduce new policies,” Tad Devine, an advisor for Kerry’s 2004 presidential bid, told Reuters. “Winning a campaign comes from looking toward the future. And looking toward the future means addressing policies which are going to become reality when and if she becomes a president.”*

Professor Shapiro also reminds us that Hillary was not in a position to channel a platform on all political issues while she was a secretary of state, and that in the last few years she did not hold any political post. Now in the race, though, she will have to formulate a distinct, convincing message and let the voter know why she is running for a second time. “She needs to share her vision of a leader and let us know where she stands on major political issues. She has to overcome doubts and make it clear what her position is on inequality and giving equal chance to all Americans,” says the Columbia University professor.

Without announcing her economic strategy, the expectation is that she supports an increased minimum wage, closing corporate taxation loopholes, lowering taxes for the middle class, and investment in infrastructure. “It is widely expected that she will continue Obama economic policies, while in foreign affairs she is likely to have a different, more aggressive position.”

Hillary Clinton won’t have the luxury of providing vague ideas for long in a race in which her victory is not guaranteed. As she says in her announcement video, the vote needs to be earned.

*quote verified with Reuters