Criticizing 7 Percent Is Frivolous for the Western Media To Do

Many mainstream Western media institutions have questioned the validity of China’s reported figure for its gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2015. They have also called into question the purposely “forged accounts”* by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, saying that the purpose of forging these numbers is merely to sustain investors’ confidence. Their reasoning is mainly based on the fact that Chinese first- and second-quarter growth is exactly the same, and that they hit the Chinese national target exactly – which is “just too coincidental.”

Because of this “coincidence,” the West is questioning China’s “forged accounts.”* This logic is not rigorous and can simply be called frivolous. It shows the West’s displeasure with China’s stated numbers. The West cannot cover up its hopes that Chinese growth will decrease, and these actions by the Western media have disappointed many people.

Collecting data for the Chinese economy is a huge challenge; getting the exact data with high accuracy is difficult. If there are a number of Western figureheads who question the method of data collection in China, then that isn’t strange. However, China’s statistics have consistency, and a debate over the method of collection doesn’t affect the authority of the estimations of Chinese statistics.

The temptation for the data of the NBSC to support the work of the government has existed all along. However, this temptation exists in all countries, not just China. The Chinese central leadership has worked to counter this temptation, and the NBSC has sought to maintain objectivity all along. For any person to create forged data or accounts, or use the authority of the NBSC to create fake data, would be criminal activity.

Foreign observers strongly expect that the Chinese government influences the data of the NBSC. This expectation about its ability and ease to exert such influence is a misunderstanding of the workings of the Chinese government.

Besides, although Chinese GDP growth has dropped to its lowest point in recent years, it can’t be said that this is true for all points within the economy. Because the reduction in growth has been small, signs of stabilization are already appearing. Second, society and public opinion have already adapted to the standard of the former GDP growth. Slightly slower growth, for example around 6 percent, is acceptable. Between a growth number of less than 7 percent and a fake number of 7 percent, the latter poses a larger risk to society, and China has no motivation to take this risk.

The NBSC has published numerous years worth of either “ideal” or “not ideal” data. At the same time, the political environment of China has stayed the same. If there has been any change, it is the anti-corruption campaign, which has actually increased the responsibility of public officials. If officials are acting improperly, it is “not a matter of not reporting, but a matter of when.”* Those who assert that the NBSC data are easier to fake in current times are simply reaching an incorrect conclusion.

This suspicion of “coincidental numbers” and “forged accounts” is unprofessional and similar to the cynical comments on the Internet. “China says 7 percent, so the NBSC says 7 percent”* is the kind of complaint found on the Internet. In fact, the national target for GDP growth is not 7 percent, but actually “around 7 percent.”* Since the third and fourth quarter numbers are projected to be higher, this means the total annual growth could end up slightly above 7 percent.

Of course, if the world believes that the coincidental numbers are reason for doubt, then this shows that faith and confidence in the Chinese government are not high. However, if this is the reason for doubt, why isn’t there similar suspicion about other countries where there is a lack of trust in the government?

It is necessary to point out that there are always differences between the Chinese government and Western observers about how to evaluate the Chinese economy. However, looking at these past few years, we cannot help but say that Western observers have misread Chinese economic trends. For those who like to reach unreasonable conclusions about the Chinese economy, especially those who make accusations about forged numbers, it may be worthwhile for them to have longer memories and be more objective.

*Editor's note: Correctly translated, these quotes could not be verified.