Don’t Be Startled by the Noise of American Society

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 29 August 2015
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Anthony Chantavy. Edited by Eva Langman.
Susan Rice, the U.S. president’s national security advisor, paid a visit to China from Aug. 28 to 29 to meet with Chairman Xi Jinping as he prepared for his trip to the U.S. in September. Right now, the atmosphere of U.S.-China relations is not so good; there is quite a lot of pessimism within discussions of anti-China policies in the U.S. strategic world. Besides this, the curtain of U.S. elections has lifted and candidates are stealing attention by attacking China, exacerbating the sense of “boundary” between China and the U.S.
  
Chinese society actually takes a positive attitude toward U.S.-China relations, whereas America frequently talks down to China, as if China was begging for mercy. This is not the case. The Chinese government’s attitude with America is very clear, whereas America’s relationship with China is so complex that it is hard to find clues as to why — though the Obama administration’s expectations of Xi Jinping’s visit are probably no lower than China’s.
  
Obama still has at least a year in office, but he might be unable to handle deteriorating U.S.-China relations marking the end of his eight years. If U.S.-China relations result in heavy tides, Obama has no time to turn back — especially since right now America and Russia are wrestling with the Ukraine issue.

Some U.S. scholars, looking back on failures to see eye to eye with China, advocate adjusting America’s most fundamental relations with China. It is not likely that these discussions will bring sudden changes to real policies toward China. While we feel that just like China, America has its own goal of opening itself to the outside world, we are also on high alert of its political intentions to westernize China. It can be said that this alertness has increased in the past few years, but can it significantly alter our interactions with America?

U.S.-China anxiety is rising, partly because the countries don’t know how to gently handle sensitive issues like those in the South China Sea, and the issue of friction across networks. First of all, the current concerns between China and the U.S. are intense, and they aren’t even the Cuban Missile Crisis, the conflict in Afghanistan or showing off nuclear capabilities. U.S.-China efforts to compromise and save face in the South Sea question are slightly evident in their displays of power. The South Sea game is very complicated, but America is gradually resisting the urge to “insert a white blade and pull out a red one.” Its rules are becoming more and more like a repetitive sports meet for diplomacy efforts.

Then again, the long peace between the two countries has weakened, and the friction that has arisen between them is unsettling. The lingering sense of crisis that China’s rise gives to American society can find any reason to detonate. To a certain degree, anti-China strategy in U.S. academia is American society’s coping mechanism for facing China’s rise, finding pleasure in people who speak cruelly of China.

Actually, in the year when the U.S. formed strategies to approach China, part of it was thanks to policy leadership, and a big part was caused by the trends of the times. The U.S. keeps track of its benefits very carefully in every period; it intentionally cut China some slack in order to place China in its international setup. Going out of its way to get close to China is not at all the real nature of its anti-China policy.
  
U.S.-China relations started to rise and fall, constant friction and prominent difficulties in the 1990s. China and the U.S. have always been cooperative partners that never got along, and also the most unwilling strategic opponents to be true to each other via specific negotiation.

This challenge of promoting U.S. and Chinese societies to view their countries’ relations in a positive light has important meaning in ensuring Chairman Xi’s success in America. Looking at their history together, U.S.-China relations are really not all that bad. People who have lived long enough to have witnessed China’s diplomatic challenges in the ‘60s and ‘70s might find the current U.S.-China situation to be comparatively better. Henry Kissinger always encourages China and the U.S. to increase mutual trust, probably because of his long strategic experience. American and Chinese leaders taking the initiative to encourage the countries to overcome their difficulties might unfortunately have already created the liability of confronting history.
  
The U.S. has always had some irrational people who speak unpleasantly during the important moments of U.S.-China relations and incite public stress. Dealing with these people has always given China a headache. Before, we would usually pay them no mind in order to avoid strengthening their influence. This strategy is apparently not logical enough. The solution to strengthening China’s resistance comes from within, and therefore requires us to coordinate a plan.


 美国总统国家安全事务助理苏珊·赖斯28日到29日访问中国,为习近平主席9月份访美做沟通。当前中美关系的氛围不太好,美战略界对华政策大讨论中的负面主张较多,此外美国大选已拉开帷幕,参选人把攻击中国当吸引眼球的噱头,都增加了中美之间的所谓“临界”感。
  中国社会对中美关系的公开态度相对积极,美方则狠话频出,好像中国求着美国一样。实则不然。中国的对美关系由官方主导,比较清晰,美国的对华关系则复杂得很难理出头绪。但奥巴马政府对习近平访美成功的需求大概不比中方的需求低。
  奥巴马执政期还剩一年多,他恐怕承受不起中美关系恶化作为他8年执政的句号。如果中美关系出现重大波动,奥巴马根本没时间扳回,尤其是当前美俄正因乌克兰问题进行对抗。

  美国一些学者在反思对华接触政策的“失败”,主张把对华关系的基点做调整。这些讨论不太可能带来美对华现实政策的陡然改变。就像中国,我们一方面觉得美国是自己对外开放的重要目标,一方面又对它有西化分化中国的政治企图抱着高度警惕。这样的警惕最近几年应当说也在增加,但这能导致我们大幅调整对美打交道的方式吗?
  中美紧张感上升,部分来源于两国不知道如何轻松处理南海及网络摩擦等敏感问题。首先要说,中美当下的问题再尖锐,它们也不是古巴导弹危机、阿富汗冲突、核力量的公开相互炫耀等等。在南海问题上中美的相互妥协、给面子,透过彼此的示强隐约可见。南海的博弈非常复杂,但那里正逐渐形成对“白刀子进红刀子出”逻辑的避免能力。那里的得分规则越来越像是叠床架屋的外交运动会。
  然而大国之间和平久了,承受力变脆弱了,一些传统意义上低级别摩擦的叠加也会让有些人感到窒息。尤其是中国崛起带给美国社会持久的危机感,这种危机感会寻找各种理由不断发作。美国学界对华战略大讨论在一定程度上是美国社会面对中国崛起焦虑的释放,有的人说些发狠的话,这会给他们带来快感。
  其实当年美国形成对华接触的战略,政策引导做了部分贡献,还有很大一部分是时代潮流使然。美国在每一个时期都对自己的利益算得很精明,它为了把中国纳入其领导的国际体系而故意放这个东方大国一马,在接触中国方面有意做出额外努力,并非其对华政策的真实情形。
  中美关系从上世纪90年代开始时有起伏、摩擦不断,困难总是很突出,中美一直是最别扭的“合作伙伴”,也是最不愿意通过具体摊牌来坐实的“战略对手”。
  确保习主席访美成功,这对推动中美社会积极看待两国关系的困难有重要意义。中美关系从大国博弈的历史经验看实在算不上糟糕,如果人们的生命足够长,今天的中美主流人群都见识过上世纪六七十年代的中国外交困难,他们就会对中美目前的状态庆幸。基辛格总是鼓励中美增加互信,这同他的战略经验长度大概有关。中美领导人带头给两国克服困难鼓劲,这恐怕已经成为他们面对历史的责任。
  美国总有一些非理性人物在中美关系的重要时刻发刺耳之声,形成舆论压力。如何对付这些声音,一直让中方感到棘手。以往通常的做法是不搭理他们,避免我方的回应进一步放大那些声音的影响力。这种策略显然不够理想,如何增加中国应对的有效性,涉及我们内部的一些机制性突破,因而是一项需要内外统筹的重大课题。
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