Trump vs. Clinton: Is the Outcome Already Decided?

The most bewildering aspects of this year’s election are the consequences of the frequent and inherent polarization of American politics; the Occupy Wall Street left-wing resistance movement is Sanders’s foundation, whereas the xenophobic, extreme, and prejudiced tea party movement is the crux of Trump’s success.

On March 3, both Republicans and Democrats faced the presidential primary season’s Super Tuesday. Democrats held their primary elections or caucuses in Alabama, Georgia, Virginia, Tennessee, 11 other states, and one territory overseas, whereas Republicans held theirs in Georgia, Virginia, Texas, Massachusetts, plus 11 other states. As expected, Clinton and Trump were the winners of their respective parties’ votes, and both now appear unstoppable.

Conversely to previous primaries, there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding this primary. One aspect of this uncertainty is that as the majority of states run a proportionate rather than a winner-takes-all system, candidates only need to pass over the threshold to remain in the race. So even if a candidate is defeated, they are still in the running. A further aspect is that the two current leaders in the race, Clinton and Trump, are surrounded by scandal and controversy, and this gives candidates lagging behind the encouragement to persevere in the hope that these ticking time bombs will soon explode.

Sanders, the Democratic Party’s candidate in second place, would not, under normal circumstances, be as powerful an opponent to Clinton as he is, but he has been given greater hope as Clinton is more and more embroiled in “emailgate.” During the four years that she served as the U.S. secretary of state, she used her personal email account for work purposes rather than her government-supplied Blackberry, while her assistant did not promptly file correspondence properly. Clinton has not only suffered attacks from the Republican Party and the American media because of this scandal, but she has even been accused of the severe charge of leaking state secrets and breaching secrecy principles. Along with the U.S. Congress investigation being opened, “emailgate” could well destroy Clinton’s dream of the presidency.

Trump’s tax records and populist colors could signal a rare opportunity for Cruz, Rubio, and the other Republican Party candidates to instigate a turning of the tide against Trump. His vitality lies in his uncultivated, anti-establishment nature, but there is a fatal conflict within his billionaire-but-uncultivated status; consideration of this conflict transforms Trump from the angry, candid cowboy to a hypocritical, greedy swindler: The crucial focus point of all of this is Trump’s taxes. Considering his billionaire status, it is very hard to be completely innocent when it comes to taxes; that is not to say that Trump has, or will, violate taxation laws, but clever and legitimate tax evasion techniques are just as likely to have a destructive impact on his election campaign. Fellow Republican candidates, Cruz and Rubio, have, besides taxes, another way to drag Trump down: to exploit the internal concern and hostility within the Republican Party regarding Trump’s continuing rise. Cruz and Rubio could equally draw support from the power of the Republican Party organization to force Trump out of the race.

Of course, a highly likely result of all of this is that Trump and his supporters could fragment and leave the Republican Party to form a new party through which to participate in U.S. elections. Frankly speaking, the most bewildering aspects of this year’s election are the consequences of the frequent and inherent polarization of American politics; the Occupy Wall Street left-wing resistance is Sanders’s foundation, whereas the xenophobic, extreme, and prejudiced tea party movement is the crux of Trump’s success. The anti-establishment forces of both the left and the right have already started to break down the moderate, rational middle-ground in U.S. society.