Trump Really Is Coming

Published in Sinchew Daily
(Malaysia) on 4 March 2016
by Zheng Ding Xian (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Daniel Chow. Edited by Laurence Bouvard.
After Super Tuesday, many Americans began tensing up. Why?

Trump really is coming.

In the beginning, the mainstream elites of the Republican Party saw him as a supporting character, or to put it more bluntly, just as an "entertainer." His entry into this election merely provided some entertainment, like a buffoon in a serious movie, providing gags and adding to the atmosphere.

“Who is Trump anyway?” they think. This guy who looks like a raccoon with a weird hairdo, a business mogul and also a reality TV show host who has zero political experience, no political background and is a political outsider. Why would he even be able to run for the Republican presidential candidate against professional political elites?

Therefore, the Republican candidates did not consider Trump a threat, and assumed that this layman would be out of the game as soon as the trend died out.

These mainstream elites continued using traditional campaign tactics, speaking with fervor about progressive conservative policy, each claiming to be the political heir to Reagan, trying to unite the Republicans and obtain the support of moderates and conservatives within the party. They also definitely avoided offending Africans, Latinos and Asians, hoping to win over different political camps and races.

The GOP is a conservative party, and its supporters are predominantly white traditionalists; religion-wise, they are more pious and are typical Christian Puritans; economically, they advocate an open and competitive market, non-excessive government intervention, and are also opposed to the allocation of too many resources for social welfare; politically, they are against immigration, hostile to homosexuality and advocate a tougher stance by the government on foreign policy.

However, these elites are reluctant to offend the minority races and want to accommodate median and liberal voters. They know that the ratio of white traditionalists has decreased and that they cannot win by relying on conservative forces alone. Reagan obtained high public opinion in the 1980s by expanding the scope of Republican inclusiveness, and crossing the traditional limits of race and ideology.

After the Republican primaries began, more than 10 candidates went down this path, trying to eliminate similar candidates in the same game.

Jeb Bush had been forecast to do well, because he is a moderate Republican, his wife is of Mexican origin and is a very tolerant person; other candidates such as Cruz and Rubio are both descendants of Cubans, and are able to gain recognition from Spanish-speaking communities.

People believed that these backgrounds, coupled with the abilities and integrity of these candidates, represented the best chances of getting a Republican in the White House. However, they never expected that American society would no longer be the same, and neither would the political game.

Republicans, especially the conservative white community, are dissatisfied with the status quo in the U.S. They think the country is in decline, has a weakening political position and that economic prospects are bleak; in particular, during Democratic President Obama's tenure, [they believe] that the government ignored mainstream society, policies were unfair and favored ethnic minorities, and that immigrants were brought in; weak foreign policy caused the United States to be threatened by Islam, Russia and China.

The ambiguous positions of Republican elites are showy but impractical, and the electorate is already tired of them. In contrast, the hardline and xenophobic Trump said exactly what they were thinking.

Trump described Mexican immigrants as drug dealers and rapists, and intends to build impenetrable walls at the border; he slammed China for taking advantage of the United States, and demands that Apple shift its production lines back to the United States; he is hostile to Islam, and wants to ban Muslims from entering the United States. These are among the many things he said that sound ridiculous, are unorthodox and do not conform to America’s political correctness and traditional values.

However, many Republicans are buying it.

Of particular note is Trump’s slogan: “Make America Great Again.” It evokes past glory and pride, and engenders new hope for them, regardless of how unrealistic that hope may be. These Republicans may not be aware of it, but Trump isn’t just destroying the GOP, he’s also dividing the United States. The more they support Trump, the more divided America will be.

Ethnic minorities, moderates and liberals in mainstream society are worried about this situation; even establishment Republicans cannot tolerate the spread of the Trump effect. Otherwise, once Trump is nominated, the GOP’s chance of occupying the White House will be greatly diminished.

The Republican establishment camp has already begun to contain Trump; the other candidates, Cruz and Rubio are working together to attack Trump; and Democrat Hillary Clinton has also begun to target Trump after the electoral situation became apparent.

But is it already too late?


特朗普真的來了
“超級星期二”之後,很多美國人開始緊張了。為甚麼?
特朗普真的來了。
開始時,共和黨的主流精英把他當配角,更直接的說,以為他只是一個“娛樂者”(Entertainer)。加入這場選戰,不過是提供一些娛樂效果,就好像一部嚴肅電影,也會安排一個醜角,插科打諢,增添氣氛。
特朗普算是甚麼東西?他們心中這麼認為。這個髮型古怪,長相宛如浣熊的傢伙,身份是商業大款,也是電視真人秀的主持人,沒有從政經驗,缺乏政治閱歷,是個政治門外漢。他憑甚麼和專業政治精英競選共和黨總統候選人?
所以,共和黨的參選者,初期不把特朗普當一回事,以為一輪熱潮過去,這門外漢就沒戲唱,要被刷下去了。
這些主流精英,延續傳統競選手法,侃侃大談保守進步政策,個個以里根政治的繼承人自居,試圖凝聚共和黨人的團結,取得黨內保守派和溫和派的支持,更避免得罪非裔、拉丁裔和亞裔,希望把不同陣營和族群都拉攏進來。
共和黨是保守政黨,支持者以傳統白人為主;宗教上,他們比較虔誠,是典型的基督教清教徒;經濟上,他們主張開放和競爭,不要政府過度干預,也反對把太多資源用在社會福利;政治上,他們抗拒外來移民,反對同性戀,主張政府對外更加強硬。
然而,這些共和黨精英也不願意得罪少數民族,並且希望容納中間和自由派選民。他們知道傳統白人的比率下降,不能單靠保守力量取勝。里根在80年代民意高企,就是擴大共和黨的包容範圍,跨越傳統的族群和理念局限。
共和黨初選起跑,10幾個候選人都跑這條路線,在同樣的遊戲中,試圖把同質的對手擠出局。
布什家族的傑布,原本備受看好,因為他屬於溫和派共和黨人,妻子還是墨西哥出身成長,包容力很大;其他如克魯茲和魯比奧,兩人都是古巴後裔,能夠獲得西班牙語系社會的認同。
人們以為,這種背景,加上他們的能力和操守,才是共和黨入主白宮的希望。
但是,他們沒有預料到,美國社會已經出現質變,如今遊戲是不同玩法了。
共和黨人,特別是保守白人社會,對美國的現狀不滿。他們認為這個國家正在衰落,經濟前景暗淡,政治地位沉淪;特別是民主黨的奧巴馬總統任內,政府忽略主流社會,政策不公平,偏愛少數族群,引進外來移民;對外政策軟弱,讓美國遭受伊斯蘭、俄羅斯和中國的威脅。
共和黨精英的模糊立場和華而不實,已經讓他們厭倦。相對的,立場強硬和排外的特朗普,說出了他們心聲。
特朗普形容墨西哥移民是毒販和強姦犯,要在邊界建立密不透風的圍牆;抨擊中國佔盡美國便宜,要蘋果把生產撤回美國;敵視伊斯蘭,要禁止穆斯林進入美國等等,聽起來可笑,離經叛道,也不符合美國的政治正確和傳統價值。
但是,很多共和黨人買他這一套。
特別是特朗普的口號――“讓美國重新偉大起來”(Make America greatagain),喚起他們過去的榮耀和驕傲,也催生了新希望,儘管那是多麼不切實際。
而這些共和黨人或許沒有意識,特朗普不但在摧毀共和黨,也在分化美國;他們繼續支持特朗普,就讓美國更加分化。
少數族群和主流社會的溫和派、自由派,對這種情況感到擔憂;即使是共和黨的建制派,也不容特朗普效應擴散,否則,一旦特朗普獲得提名,必將削弱共和黨入主白宮的機會。
共和黨建制派開始圍堵特朗普;剩下的候選人,克魯茲和魯比奧兩人協力攻擊特朗普;而民主黨的希拉里在選情明朗之後,也將目標轉向特朗普。
只是,這是否已經太遲?
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