The War in Syria: US-Russia Agreement Is the Driving Force for Peace

Published in Nishinippon Shimbun
(Japan) on 25 February 2016
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Chris Hennessy. Edited by Rachel Pott.
In a joint statement, the U.S. and Russia have announced an agreement to enact temporary ceasefire terms and to urge a ceasefire to begin on Feb. 27, between both the Assad regime and Syrian opposition in the war in Syria.

The Assad regime, the Syrian opposition and the extremist Islamic State group continue a three-way war in Syria. In this mix, Russia is backing the Assad regime and the U.S. is backing the Syrian opposition.

The agreement is an attempt to persuade the different sides supported by the U.S. and Russia to implement a temporary ceasefire. This paper wants this U.S.-Russia agreement to be the driving force for a temporary ceasefire and the catalyst for the resumption of meaningful peace talks.

However, it appears it will not be easy to fully enforce the temporary ceasefire as outlined in the agreement. This is because, over the course of the war, many opposing forces have taken shape, developing a complicated enemy-ally calculus.

This agreement targets the Assad regime and the Syrian opposition, not the Islamic State group or the Nusra Front – a group affiliated with the international terrorist organization al-Qaida. U.S.-led volunteer U.N. forces, the Assad regime and Russia will continue to strike at the Islamic State group and the Nusra Front.

However, in real terms, the Syrian opposition is working together with the Nusra Front against the Assad regime in certain areas, making it difficult to differentiate between the two. It is believed that the Russians – under the pretext of rooting out the Islamic State group and other terrorist organizations – are providing indirect support for the Assad regime through airstrikes on the Syrian opposition.

Responding to calls for an agreement, the Assad regime and leaders of the Syrian opposition have – on the surface – shown signs of consensus. However, the Syrian opposition has refrained from giving a formal response, a precaution against any future Russian air strikes. Whether Russia will implement the agreement faithfully and quit bombing the Syrian opposition appears to be a pivotal factor for the success of the ceasefire. Russia’s restraint is being sought.

The war in Syria has become such a quagmire because the U.S., Russia and other nations in the region have intervened with ulterior agendas in order to secure influence in the Middle East and, ultimately, these same nations have been passive in working together toward stability in Syria.

Now, the first priority must be for concerned nations to throw out their immediate personal agendas and help snap the Syrian people from the jaws of the worst humanitarian crisis of this era. Looking at it in this light, there is an even more apparent need for responsibility from the U.S. and Russia.


シリア内戦 米ロ合意を和平のてこに

 シリア内戦をめぐって、米国とロシアが一時停戦の条件で合意し、内戦当事者のアサド政権と反体制派の双方に27日からの停戦を呼びかける共同声明を発表した。

 シリアでは、アサド政権と反体制派、さらに過激派組織「イスラム国」(IS)とが三つどもえの戦闘を続けている。このうちロシアがアサド政権を、米国が反体制派をそれぞれ支援している。

 今回の合意は、後ろ盾の米ロがそれぞれの支援対象に働きかけ、一時停戦を実現しようとする試みだ。この米ロ合意をてこに一時停戦を実現し、本格的な和平協議再開への足がかりにしてほしい。

 ただし、一時停戦が合意通り発効に至るのは容易ではなさそうだ。内戦の長期化でさまざまな勢力が入り乱れ、敵味方の構図が複雑になっているからだ。

 今回の合意で停戦の対象となるのはアサド政権と反体制派で、ISや国際テロ組織アルカイダ系勢力「ヌスラ戦線」は対象外だ。米主導の有志国連合、アサド政権、ロシアの3者はISとヌスラ戦線への攻撃を継続する。

 しかし、実際には反体制派とヌスラ戦線は一部地域で連携してアサド政権と戦っており、区別するのが難しい。ロシアは「ISやテロ組織を掃討する」との名目で反体制派を空爆し、アサド政権を側面支援してきたとされる。

 今回の停戦呼びかけに対し、アサド政権も反体制派の主要勢力も表向きは同意する姿勢を示したものの、反体制派はロシアによる攻撃継続を警戒し、正式な回答を留保している。ロシアが合意をきちんと履行し、反体制派への攻撃をやめるかどうかが、停戦実現への最大の鍵となりそうだ。ロシアの自制が求められている。

 シリア内戦が泥沼化したのは、米ロや周辺国が中東での影響力確保の思惑で介入し、内戦収拾に向けた協力に消極的だったからだ。

 いま最優先すべきなのは、関係国が目先の思惑を捨てて、シリア国民を「今世紀最大の人道危機」から救い出すことである。その意味でも、米ロの責任は特に重い。
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