In the United States, Demographics Are Destiny; Trends Now Heavily Favor the Democratic Party
Published in Le Monde
(France) on 20 April 2016
by Denis Lacorne (link to original)
Donald Trump is heir to an old protectionist and xenophobic tradition peculiar to the Republican Party and theorized by Harvard political commentator Samuel Huntington, the author of a successful book on “civilization shock” and another work dedicated to American identity (“Who Are We?” Odile Jacob, 2004). In the latter book, Huntington attempts to demonstrate that Latinos cannot assimilate due to their culture, their language, and their customs; they are a threat to the very existence of a phantasmagorical “American creed” derived from Anglo-Puritan tradition.
Along the same lines, but in an even more brutal fashion, Trump does not hesitate to denounce the “deviance” of Mexican immigrants, openly suspecting them of being “rapists” and “drug traffickers.” He thus proposes the expulsion of 12 million illegal immigrants — Hispanics, for the most part — some of whom have resided in the United States for years. And, to seal the deal, he demands the construction of an impenetrable wall between the United States and Mexico, which is proposed to be entirely financed by the victims: the Mexicans themselves.
The outrageousness of these suggestions is obvious. Walls are made to be crossed, and a truly impenetrable border would be too costly in materials and manpower to be achieved. According to some estimates, to protect such a wall would require at least 400,000 border guards!
Violence and Extremism
The actual deportation of 12 million illegal immigrants is also impossible as a practical matter. It would require the development of an enormous police and judiciary infrastructure and internment camps for offenders or people awaiting deportation, which would turn the United States into a totalitarian state.
The violence and extremism of Trump’s xenophobic rhetoric almost certainly guarantees a victory for Hillary Clinton in the November election, provided that Trump and Clinton are chosen by their respective party conventions. Trump has forgotten one simple truth: in the United States, demographics are destiny. Trends now heavily favor the Democratic Party, especially if its adversary, the Grand Old Party, continues to surf the wave of Latinophobia, anti-black racism, and the misogyny amply revealed in the American media. According to the estimates of the Pew Research Center, in 2016 Hillary Clinton will have the good fortune to gain the support of millions of new Hispanic voters: 4.4 million, to be exact.
Among these, 3.2 million (or 72 percent) are citizens born in the United States who will have reached the age of 18 between 2012 and 2016, to whom will be added the 1.2 million new voters who have been recently naturalized. In short, in 2016, the Hispanic vote will be worth as much as the African-American vote and represent 12 percent of total potential voters (versus 9 percent in 2008).
A Winning Counter-rally
So, this autumn, we will see a double voter rallying, which is unprecedented in the United States. On one side is the rallying of the “working class whites” and the workers left unemployed or impoverished by the economic crisis of 2008, who make up the majority of Trump’s electoral support and are seduced by his tough, xenophobic rhetoric. On the other side is the counter-rally of women, better-educated young people and ethnic voters; that is to say, primarily African-Americans and Hispanics.
This counter-rally will probably be successful because, as usual, the election this autumn will be decided in a dozen vital states, the “battleground states,” which include Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico — where the Hispanic vote will be essential — and some southern states such as Georgia, Virginia, and North Carolina, where the African-American vote will be crucial. The only danger to Hillary Clinton is the weak electoral participation of young Latino voters: those 18-29 years old.
These voters have a high lack of participation: in 2012, only 38 percent of them turned out to vote (versus 62 percent on average for all voters). Clinton will thus have a double goal: to convince young Latinos to vote for her and to accelerate the campaign to naturalize adults of voting age. But she is in luck: According to one of the leaders of the Democratic National Committee, “her best recruiting agent” is Donald Trump!* Besides, one of the most sordid aspects of the primary campaigns is the architectural competition proposed by an American foundation, the Third Mind Foundation. This competition would select and reward the best design for a “wall” designed to separate the United States from Mexico, as if aesthetics could outweigh oppression in the America dreamed up by Trump and his supporters.
*Editor's note: The original quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.
Along the same lines, but in an even more brutal fashion, Trump does not hesitate to denounce the “deviance” of Mexican immigrants, openly suspecting them of being “rapists” and “drug traffickers.” He thus proposes the expulsion of 12 million illegal immigrants — Hispanics, for the most part — some of whom have resided in the United States for years. And, to seal the deal, he demands the construction of an impenetrable wall between the United States and Mexico, which is proposed to be entirely financed by the victims: the Mexicans themselves.
The outrageousness of these suggestions is obvious. Walls are made to be crossed, and a truly impenetrable border would be too costly in materials and manpower to be achieved. According to some estimates, to protect such a wall would require at least 400,000 border guards!
Violence and Extremism
The actual deportation of 12 million illegal immigrants is also impossible as a practical matter. It would require the development of an enormous police and judiciary infrastructure and internment camps for offenders or people awaiting deportation, which would turn the United States into a totalitarian state.
The violence and extremism of Trump’s xenophobic rhetoric almost certainly guarantees a victory for Hillary Clinton in the November election, provided that Trump and Clinton are chosen by their respective party conventions. Trump has forgotten one simple truth: in the United States, demographics are destiny. Trends now heavily favor the Democratic Party, especially if its adversary, the Grand Old Party, continues to surf the wave of Latinophobia, anti-black racism, and the misogyny amply revealed in the American media. According to the estimates of the Pew Research Center, in 2016 Hillary Clinton will have the good fortune to gain the support of millions of new Hispanic voters: 4.4 million, to be exact.
Among these, 3.2 million (or 72 percent) are citizens born in the United States who will have reached the age of 18 between 2012 and 2016, to whom will be added the 1.2 million new voters who have been recently naturalized. In short, in 2016, the Hispanic vote will be worth as much as the African-American vote and represent 12 percent of total potential voters (versus 9 percent in 2008).
A Winning Counter-rally
So, this autumn, we will see a double voter rallying, which is unprecedented in the United States. On one side is the rallying of the “working class whites” and the workers left unemployed or impoverished by the economic crisis of 2008, who make up the majority of Trump’s electoral support and are seduced by his tough, xenophobic rhetoric. On the other side is the counter-rally of women, better-educated young people and ethnic voters; that is to say, primarily African-Americans and Hispanics.
This counter-rally will probably be successful because, as usual, the election this autumn will be decided in a dozen vital states, the “battleground states,” which include Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico — where the Hispanic vote will be essential — and some southern states such as Georgia, Virginia, and North Carolina, where the African-American vote will be crucial. The only danger to Hillary Clinton is the weak electoral participation of young Latino voters: those 18-29 years old.
These voters have a high lack of participation: in 2012, only 38 percent of them turned out to vote (versus 62 percent on average for all voters). Clinton will thus have a double goal: to convince young Latinos to vote for her and to accelerate the campaign to naturalize adults of voting age. But she is in luck: According to one of the leaders of the Democratic National Committee, “her best recruiting agent” is Donald Trump!* Besides, one of the most sordid aspects of the primary campaigns is the architectural competition proposed by an American foundation, the Third Mind Foundation. This competition would select and reward the best design for a “wall” designed to separate the United States from Mexico, as if aesthetics could outweigh oppression in the America dreamed up by Trump and his supporters.
*Editor's note: The original quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.
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