Hillary Clinton’s Two Battles in the Face of Trump

Hillary Clinton needs to reconcile two groups of voters: the Republicans rejected by Trump, and the voters who supported Bernie Sanders.

The presidential campaign promises to be one of the most nauseating in history – no holds barred.

Does she have the U.S. presidency in the bag? In campaigns, Hillary Clinton may well be a fragile candidate who has often been tackled by her adversaries — from Barack Obama, a young unknown Illinois senator in 2008, to Bernie Sanders, an old socialist Vermont senator this year – but this time, she’s got a stronger hand to play.

Admittedly, the Republican Party ended up giving its support to the New York billionaire on Thursday during the meeting between Donald Trump and Paul Ryan, the leader of the House of Representatives. However, as a candidate, Clinton is without any doubt in the best position to win the November presidential election.

With six months to go before election day, the former first lady is roughly 12 points behind Trump in the polls. In all national opinion polls compiled by RealClearPolitics since July 2015, the date when the New York billionaire joined the race for the White House, the real estate tycoon has only been in the lead six times out of 64. Clinton has been the favorite 81 percent of the time. Better still, an opinion poll carried out by CNN/ORC just before the Indiana primary (won by her opponent Sanders and marked by the withdrawal of the two other Republican candidates, Ted Cruz and John Kasich) indicated that during the general election, 84 percent of Republican voters would rather choose Clinton than Trump. Clearly, candidate Trump’s dizzying ascent, swept along by a wave of populism, will stop short as soon as the time comes to choose, for real, the commander in chief. It would seem that voters will tilt in favor of a candidate who, although less popular, is considered an able and experienced woman.

This is enough to boost Hillary’s hopes. After Obama’s two mandates, she has the opportunity to prolong the Democrats’ lifespan at the head of government. To do so, she needs to bring voters together and start the duel. Unfortunately, though, she can’t do it in that order.

First, this is because, unlike her opponent, Hillary is still busy fighting for the nomination of her own party. As Financial Times’ Edward Luce neatly put it, “To the Clinton campaign, the Vermont socialist [Bernie Sanders] is like one of those B-movie monsters that refuses to die.” Sanders has attracted a whole generation of young people hit by deepening inequality and the increasingly unbearable financial burden of higher education, and motivated by a desire to do things differently. Among those under the age of 30, seven out of 10 voted for Sanders during the primaries. “Young people appreciate Bernie Sanders’ authenticity, but what have they experienced of capitalism? The financial crisis, the weight of student loans? And yet they don’t know communism any better either!” observed Bob Zoellick, a moderate Republican and former president of the World Bank.*

A Big Gap To Bridge

Faced with a young generation full of expectations, whose demands Sanders will continue to push until the Philadelphia convention in July, candidate Clinton wants to provide a pragmatic picture. “She’s not interested in the diagnosis. She gets on with the work, she finds solutions,” her campaign director, Joel Benenson, repeats constantly in the media.* It is vital that she keeps this impassioned left on board and prevents it from becoming disengaged because of her inability to support the Vermont senator. A worse move still would be for her to favor Trump over Sanders simply because he is the anti-establishment candidate. This would imply a serious shift to the left in her course, whereas she needs to be aiming for the center if she wants to secure the votes of moderate Republicans.

Clinton therefore needs to reconcile two groups of voters: those disgusted by Trump (65 percent of the electorate has a negative opinion of him, according to opinion polls, compared with 55 percent for Clinton), and the Sanders supporters. It is a big gap that is difficult to bridge, not least because of Clinton’s unpopularity. Some, however, are already prepared to cross the Rubicon, including the former adviser of the ex-Republican candidate John McCain, Mark Salter. But first, they are awaiting the pledges to work with her in Congress. This is particularly true of the House of Representatives where the Republicans are due to keep their majority in fall. That said, they risk losing the Senate that they control today with 53 seats to 47.

Since the withdrawal of the last Republican candidates after the Indiana primary, the tone has become even more aggressive between the two contenders for the White House. Political observers are preparing for one of the bloodiest and muddiest campaigns in history. Team Clinton has launched new televised shock advertisements featuring Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Mitt Romney and Carly Fiorina, who pummel “The Donald” with criticism.

In response, Trump, for whom no holds are barred, accused his opponent of hypocrisy for enabling the extramarital affairs of her husband, Bill Clinton, and sweeping them under the carpet. “Hillary hurt many women – the women that he [Bill Clinton] abused,” proclaimed Trump. Their future exchanges are more likely to be based on personal attacks than on political agendas. And although the question of her email correspondence on a private server is still under investigation today, an issue over which she has little control, Clinton remains, in all other respects, strong enough to stand up for herself.

*Editor’s note: The original quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.