The Real Target of Anti-Trump Ads

Even though the Democratic campaign isn’t quite over, an ad campaign targeting Donald Trump is being launched. It aims not only to sway public opinion but also to throw the Republican candidate off balance.

In 2012, the Democrats and their allies gained a significant lead in the race against Republican Mitt Romney by bombarding television networks with attack ads. That summer, they helped solidify the public perception of Romney as an ultra-rich politician detached from the realities of ordinary Americans. This year, Democrats have started to launch their attacks against the de facto Republican candidate much earlier. A massive negative ad campaign aimed at the New York billionaire will begin tomorrow in pivotal states, including Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Why so early, and why focus on Trump’s particular relationship with women?

The First Barrage of Attacks

First of all, the Democrats know how anti-Trump forces within the Republican Party have failed spectacularly; Trump’s Republican opponents should have started attacking his character much earlier. When the first attacks against Trump were launched during the primaries, it was too late. For the Democrats, it’s important to strike now, and the group most likely to respond to an anti-Trump campaign is female voters. Trump has an extremely high disapproval rating within this group, and it did nothing but increase during the entire primary campaign (source: Why Donald Trump Should Be Careful about that Whole ‘Woman Card’ Thing).

The super PAC Priorities USA released two ads, linked to the Clinton campaign, that use Trump quotes to present a less-than-flattering depiction of his attitude toward women. These quotes are quite familiar to the men – and especially the women – who have closely followed the campaign, but the super PAC’s studies have shown these quotes have not yet trickled down to the general electorate, which has yet to pay much attention to the campaign. The first ad is fairly traditional, but the second is more original and possibly more efficient. The ad features ordinary people, particularly women, lip-synching Trump quotes, and at the very end it asks: “Does Donald Trump really speak for you?”

At such an early point in the campaign, the main goal of these ads is, of course, to strengthen negative opinions about Trump, particularly among women, and to stop women from listening to the call of Republican sirens as the party’s unifies around the man who is its de facto nominee. But when you’re dealing with a character like Donald Trump, attacks can have a whole other purpose.

Making The Donald Come Off the Hinges

Another goal, which is just as important, is to throw a candidate with a notoriously short fuse off-balance. At a time when Trump had planned to soften his image so he could successfully transition into the general election, these Democratic attacks have provoked a counterattack, opening Trump up to possible blunders. For example, Trump reacted strongly to a feature article in the New York Times that exposed his behavior with many of the women in his entourage (we should mention that the article’s effects were mitigated when one of women who was interviewed for the article said her statements had been distorted; see here. In addition to his visible irritation during his public appearances, he threatened to sue the newspaper. He thus helped attract attention both to the article and to his own impulsiveness. When he committed gaffes while reacting to attacks during the primaries, Trump was able to successfully rally his troops. He could also count on the opposition within the party being much less hostile than within the general electorate, a challenge he will need to overcome to reach the 50 percent support threshold.

In short, the main audience for anti-Trump ads is Trump himself. Not only do attacks against Trump expose aspects of his past the public knows little about, they also have a good chance of making him trip up and spontaneously reveal parts of his character that his opponents want to surface.

Of course, Trump and his allies will launch counterattacks at Clinton, who also is poorly perceived by the electorate (though not as poorly as Trump). However, Clinton has been in the public eye for a quarter of a century, and voters have already heard just about every accusation and insult that could be thrown at her. Both candidates are vulnerable to criticisms and attacks, but the potential reaction of voters may be greater when it comes to Trump rather than Clinton. We shall see how this plays out on the campaign trail.