Trump Backs Down

Published in Excélsior
(Mexico) on 23 August 2016
by Ana Paula Ordorica (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by William Mastick. Edited by Elizabeth Cosgriff.

 

 

 

The unexpected has happened in the last few days of the U.S. presidential race: Donald Trump appears slightly humbled. I'm not talking about him admitting he at times says things he later regrets, a statement that caused quite a stir. I am referring to issues directly tied to Mexico: immigration and the deportation of undocumented immigrants.

Strong but just. Firm and fair. That is how Trump described his policy on fixing the U.S. immigration system to the media, a system no one would disagree needs an overhaul.

The problem is that Trump's campaign charged out of the starting gate by insulting Hispanic immigrants, calling them rapists and criminals who will be yanked out of the country if he wins the presidency. And, of course, to tighten security, time and time again he has stated he will build a border wall so high that no ladder could be used to help undocumented immigrants cross into the United States. A wall paid for by Mexico.

Now, seeing what his poll numbers and the dismal support from Hispanics mean for his chances of winning in November, Trump is toning down the rhetoric.

This is an obvious step considering the difference between extreme right-wing primary voters and the general electorate that will decide who reaches the 270 votes in the Electoral College and gets the keys to the White House.

In the most recent Fox News survey, among Latinos, Donald Trump is 46 points behind Hillary Clinton. It is not as overwhelming a number as the 99 percent of African-Americans who prefer Hillary over Trump, but it is a striking difference that, evidently, is worrying Trump's new campaign leadership.

Nearly 27.3 million Latinos may cast their votes in November. It is a number never seen before and one that will continue to rise, as Latinos are the fastest-growing demographic group.

It is also important to see where Latinos make a difference, namely in states like Florida, Colorado, Nevada and Arizona. If we add up the electoral votes of these four states, where either Hillary or Trump could win, you can see why Trump has had to show more restraint with his position on undocumented immigrants and on immigration itself.

Florida is the crown jewel with 29 votes. Arizona has 11, Colorado, 9, and Nevada, 6. Together, they are 55 of the 270 votes needed, or 20 percent on the road to the White House.

This Thursday, Trump is scheduled to give a speech to clarify his stance on this issue. Some are saying it will be postponed. In any case, the role of immigrants is not turning out to be just simple rhetoric for Trump.

He now faces the dilemma of trying a moderate approach to win over allies – and earn votes – but risks losing support from all those who are in favor of the politically incorrect talk that won him the Republican Party nomination.


Trump recula

Lo que pocos esperaban se ha visto estos últimos días en la campaña presidencial de Estados Unidos. Un Donald Trump un poco humilde. Y aquí no me refiero a su admisión de que a veces dice cosas de las cuales luego se arrepiente, lo que evidentemente causó fuerte revuelo. Me refiero a un tema directamente vinculado con México, la inmigración y la deportación de los indocumentados.

Fuerte, pero justo. Firme y justo. Así describió Trump ante los medios de comunicación que será su política hacia la migración. Su plan para arreglar el sistema migratorio estadunidense que nadie discute, requiere ser compuesto.

El problema es que Trump arrancó su campaña insultando a los migrantes hispanos, describiéndolos como violadores, criminales y que, por ello, serían sacados del país si él gana la Presidencia. ¡Ah! Y, obvio, para reforzar la seguridad, ha estado repite y repite que mandaría construir un muro en la frontera, tan alto que ninguna escalera podría ayudar a que sigan cruzando los indocumentados. Un muro que tendría que pagar México.

Ahora, viendo cómo están sus números y lo que las bajas preferencias de los hispanos significan para sus posibilidades de triunfo en noviembre, Trump está moderando su discurso.

Algo evidente si tomamos en cuenta que no es lo mismo hablarle al electorado de la extrema derecha, que es el que importaba en las primarias, que hablarle al electorado nacional, que es el que decidirá quién llega a los 270 votos del colegio electoral y, con ello, se queda con las llaves de la Casa Blanca.

En la más reciente encuesta de Fox News sobre preferencias de los latinos, Donald Trump está 46 puntos porcentuales detrás de Hillary Clinton. No es la cifra tan abrumadora de 99 por ciento de afroamericanos que prefieren a Hillary sobre Trump (prácticamente todos), pero sí es una diferencia abrumadora que, evidentemente, ha preocupado a la nueva directiva de la campaña de Trump.

Y es que en noviembre podrán votar 27.3 millones de latinos. Es un cifra nunca antes vista y que seguirá creciendo, ya que es el grupo demográfico que mayor tendencia a aumentar tiene.

Además, importa en donde marcan una diferencia: en estados como Florida, Colorado, Nevada y Arizona. Si sumamos los votos electorales de estos cuatro estados, en los que actualmente puede ganar tanto Hillary como Trump, se entiende porqué Trump ha tenido que mesurar su postura frente a los indocumentados y frente a la migración.

Florida es la joya de la corona, con 29 votos. Arizona, 11; Colorado, 9; Nevada, 6. En total, 55 de los 270 votos necesarios, o un 20% del camino hacia la Casa Blanca.

Esta semana, el jueves, está agendado que Trump dé una plática aclarando su postura sobre el tema. Hay versiones que hablan de que se va a posponer. En cualquier caso, el papel de los migrantes ya no le está resultando de fácil retórica a Trump.

Tiene, hoy por hoy, el dilema de intentar mesurarse para ganar sus simpatías... y votos, con el riesgo de perder el apoyo de todos los que están a favor de su discurso políticamente incorrecto que lo llevaron a ganar la nominación del Partido Republicano.
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

Hot this week

Topics

Poland: Meloni in the White House. Has Trump Forgotten Poland?*

Germany: US Companies in Tariff Crisis: Planning Impossible, Price Increases Necessary

Japan: US Administration Losing Credibility 3 Months into Policy of Threats

Mauritius: Could Trump Be Leading the World into Recession?

India: World in Flux: India Must See Bigger Trade Picture

Palestine: US vs. Ansarallah: Will Trump Launch a Ground War in Yemen for Israel?

Ukraine: Trump Faces Uneasy Choices on Russia’s War as His ‘Compromise Strategy’ Is Failing

Related Articles

Poland: Meloni in the White House. Has Trump Forgotten Poland?*

Japan: US Administration Losing Credibility 3 Months into Policy of Threats

Mauritius: Could Trump Be Leading the World into Recession?

India: World in Flux: India Must See Bigger Trade Picture

Palestine: US vs. Ansarallah: Will Trump Launch a Ground War in Yemen for Israel?