Not since the U.S. presidential election of 1992 has there been another as important for Mexico as the one that will take place next November. When Democrat Bill Clinton won the election in 1992, he had already negotiated and signed the North American Free Trade Agreement and its ratification was pending in Congress. The sitting Republican President George Bush had lost the election, and there was uncertainty about the position that the new Democratic president would adopt. Nevertheless, Bill Clinton understood the importance of the treaty and pledged his political capital on the ratification of the agreement signed by the U.S., Canada and Mexico.
The crossroads of the presidential and legislative election of 2016 is unique, but is equally important. Immigration has a key role. The U.S. immigration policy does not work, and during the last two administrations there was a popular consensus on it. However, the bipartisan effort headed by Republican John McCain and Democrat Ted Kennedy failed during the presidency of George W. Bush. Conservative Republicans destroyed it and the affair remained pending, to be addressed during the Obama presidency. The politics were polarized in Congress and Republicans blocked all possibility of immigration reform. So the topic of interest for both countries in November of 2016 is immigration policy, reform of which has been stagnant and postponed over the last 20 years and three presidential terms.
The issue is not small, if you consider that close to 12 million undocumented immigrants (the majority Mexican, at more that 6 million) live and work in the U.S. It is stressed that they entered without documentation, without authorization, and are called "illegals." What is not said is that if they crossed the border it is because [they wanted to find] work; also, their work has contributed in a very important way to the American economy. Donald Trump insistently stated that he will deport all of them, all 12 million people. It's unimaginable!
This unresolved problem has been politically utilized by Republican candidate Donald Trump in order to arouse hatred and to disqualify, verbally assault and insult Latino immigrants, in particular Mexicans, whom he has said are criminals, rapists and drug traffickers. Trump's brand of electoral politics are those that divide, and there have already been troubling implications and confrontations, like those cries heard among his supporters of "build the wall" and "kill them all." Serious hatred created by Trump!
One of the hottest issues has been of the young "dreamers" who arrived undocumented in America with their parents and children, who studied and spoke perfect English, and who have been integrated — but who were not given even minimal rights to study as residents without threat of deportation. An enormous crisis has been unleashed in the universities after the Republicans in Congress shut down the so-called Dream Act. In 2012, President Obama issued an executive order through which the possible deportation of these young people would be deferred and the right to study and work be granted. This order, known as DACA, has given 820,000 young people the opportunity to study and work. The presidential candidates have already spoken about it. Hillary Clinton will extend DACA while Donald Trump has shouted repeatedly that he will cancel it. [Either of them] can do it, if they become president.
Donald Trump is also going against free trade that has brought many benefits to the U.S., and also to Mexico. It is said that American companies work with China and other countries. For her part, it is very possible Hillary Clinton intends to make some changes to the treaty without opposing it. She is not an isolationist and understands the importance of having international treaties. Trump vociferously doesn't.
Finally, you cannot go without mentioning the enormous crisis the candidate Donald Trump has brought to the Republican Party, which is going to be left behind. A wave of Republicans have abandoned the GOP because of the postulations of Donald Trump, for his politics of ignorance and confrontation, for going against the policies of his own party, for veiled suggestions of assassination against the Democratic candidate and for absurd accusations against President Obama. Hundreds of Republicans have made it public that they will not vote for Trump; many will vote for Hillary Clinton, according to many American newspapers.
Desde la elección presidencial de 1992 no ha habido otra elección en Estados Unidos tan importante para México como la que tendrá lugar el próximo noviembre. Cuando el demócrata Bill Clinton ganó la elección en 1992, se había negociado y firmado ya el Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte y estaba pendiente su ratificación en el Congreso. El presidente republicano George Bush había perdido la elección y había incertidumbre sobre la posición que adoptaría el nuevo presidente demócrata. Sin embargo, Bill Clinton entendió la importancia del Tratado y empeñó su capital político en la ratificación del acuerdo firmado por EU, Canadá y México.
La encrucijada de la elección presidencial y legislativa de 2016 es distinta, pero igualmente importante. La inmigración ocupa un lugar central. La política migratoria de EU no funciona, y durante las dos últimas administraciones hubo consenso en ello. Sin embargo, fracasó primero la iniciativa bipartidista encabezada por dos senadores, el republicano John McCain y el demócrata Ted Kennedy, durante la presidencia de George W. Bush. Conservadores republicanos la echaron abajo y el asunto quedó pendiente, para ser abordado durante la presidencia de Barack Obama. La política se polarizó en el Congreso y los republicanos bloquearon toda posibilidad de una reforma migratoria. De manera que el otro tema de interés para ambos países en noviembre de 2016 es la política migratoria, la reforma estancada y pospuesta durante los últimos 20 años y tres gobiernos.
El asunto no es menor, si se considera que alrededor de 12 millones de indocumentados (la mayoría mexicanos, mas de 6 millones) viven y trabajan en EU. Se pone el acento en que entraron sin papeles, sin autorización, y se les llama “ilegales”. Lo que no se dice es que si cruzaron la frontera es porque había ofertas de trabajo y tampoco se dice que su trabajo ha contribuído de manera muy importante a la economía estadounidense. Donald Trump afirma insistentemente que los expulsará a todos, a 12 millones, ¡inimaginable!
Este problema no resuelto ha sido utilizado electoralmente por el candidato republicano Donald Trump, para despertar odio, descalificar, agredir verbalmente e insultar a los inmigrantes latinos, y en particular a los mexicanos, de quienes ha dicho que son ladrones, violadores y narcotraficantes. Para llevar adelante una política electoral que divide y confronta y que tiene ya repercusiones preocupantes. Como aquellos gritos entre sus simpatizantes en los que se escucha “build the wall” “kill them all”. “Construyan el muro”, “mátenlos a todos”. ¡Gravísimo el odio que genera Trump!
Uno de los temas mas candentes ha sido el de los jóvenes dreamers, que llegaron a Estados Unidos indocumentados con sus padres, siendo niños, que estudiaron, hablan un perfecto inglés , se han integrado… Pero que no tenían derechos mínimos a estudiar como residentes y a no ser deportados. Una crisis enorme se desencadenó en las universidades después de que los republicanos en el Congreso echaron abajo la llamada Dream Act. En 2012 el presidente Obama expidió una Orden Ejecutiva a través de la cual se difirió la acción de posible deportación de estos jóvenes y se les otorgó el derecho a estudiar y trabajar. Esa orden, conocida como DACA, por sus siglas en inglés, ha dado oportunidad de estudiar y trabajar a 820 mil jóvenes. Los candidatos a la Presidencia se han pronunciado ya. Hillary Clinton extenderá el DACA, mientras que Donald Trump ha afirmado y gritado reiteradamente que lo cancelará. Pueden hacerlo, de llegar a la Presidencia.
Donald Trump va también en contra del libre comercio que tantos beneficios ha representado primero para EU, pero también para México. Se dice que sus empresas trabajan con China y otros países. Por su parte, Hillary Clinton es muy posible que pretenda introducir algunos cambios al tratado, sin oponerse al mismo. No es aislacionista y entiende la importancia que tiene los tratados internacionales. El vociferante Trump no.
Finalmente, no se puede dejar de mencionar la enorme crisis a la que ha llevado al Partido Republicano el candidato Donald Trump, que se va quedando atrás. Una ola de republicanos ha abandonado al GOP por la postulación de Donald Trump, por su política de la ignorancia y la confrontación, por ir en contra de las políticas de su propio partido, por veladas sugerencias de un asesinato contra la candidata demócrata, por acusaciones absurdas contra el presidente Obama. Cientos de destacados republicanos han hecho público que no votarán por Trump, muchos votarán por Hillary Clinton según señalan diversos diarios estadounidenses.
Periodista y analista internacional
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These costly U.S. attacks failed to achieve their goals, but were conducted in order to inflict a blow against Yemen, for daring to challenge the Israelis.
These costly U.S. attacks failed to achieve their goals, but were conducted in order to inflict a blow against Yemen, for daring to challenge the Israelis.