The Debate

It will be next Monday in the city of New York. For the first time, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will speak not only to a country but to a whole planet that is anxious about what will happen in the U.S. presidential election. Because of the admiration that I have for the ex-secretary of state, it is difficult for me to see her in a campaign that we had thought would be much simpler for her. She would have been confident, have told herself what so many of us thought: ah, it’s Donald Trump! But the businessman and his sneaky improbability of first being a candidate, and now of winning the election, fooled us all. It was a joke, damn it! At what moment did it turn into such a close contest? Many agree that the fault is Hillary’s, and I believe they are right.

Her political career is well known. Yes, she was first lady, but also a senator and a fundamental part of the first term of Barack Obama. She is a brilliant woman, but her personality has not been able to shine with such brilliance as to blind her opponent. Trump is a showman, with a personality more appropriate for a reality show than for politics, but he managed to seduce a majority of the party for which he is now the standard bearer. He is a virtuoso of the lie: one of those who deceive with no shame, but with a force that is capable of a knockout with an irrational surprise. Clinton, in the opposing party, had a very competitive battle during the Democratic primaries with Bernie Sanders.

Contrary to what we thought a few months ago, when Trump was that bad joke at which we would laugh when he returned to one of his ostentatious towers, defeated, the poll numbers do not make Hillary breathe easily. Just yesterday, the website RealClearPolitics.com (which averages all the polls published in all U.S. media), had the following polls published: McClatchy/Marist had Clinton at 41.8 percent, with Trump at 39.7 percent; Rasmussen Reports, Clinton 39 percent and Trump 44 percent; Economist/YouGov, Clinton 40 percent and Trump 38 percent; NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Clinton 43 percent and Trump 37; Reuters/Ipsos, Clinton 37 percent and Trump 39 percent; Associated Press-GfK, Clinton 45 percent and Trump 39 percent; NBC News/SM, Clinton 45 percent and Trump 40 percent; FOX News, Clinton 41 percent and Trump 40 percent; CBS News/NY Times, Clinton 42 percent and Trump 42 percent; Quinnipiac, Clinton 41 percent and Trump 39 percent. So the raw poll numbers basically show a technical tie. But taking into account that the American electoral system stipulates that the winner of the election depends on the number of “electoral votes” (marbles, to say it in a different way) that each candidate puts together, and that each state of the U.S. has a defined and distinct number of “marbles,” the probability that Hillary wins the presidency continues to be higher, according to the analysis of none other than The New York Times.

Still, the last few weeks have weighed down Clinton. The pneumonia issue of two weeks ago that stopped her activities for a few days was a demonstration of the over-confidence of the Democrat, because this followed Clinton’s declaration about the “deplorables” who will vote for Trump, which earned her a rain of criticism so strong that she had to apologize. Seriously? “Deplorables”? That put herself at Trump’s level of discourse, without a doubt. And he, without making a single truly redeeming move, saw his numbers rise.

It is hoped that the debate next Monday, which will take place at Hofstra University, will be the most watched one in history. A television event hardly at the level of the Super Bowl. The expectation is too high, because what many (I would think the majority) of Americans are waiting for is to see at last a Hillary Clinton capable of standing up, live on television, to a person who has demonstrated that he has one of those personalities that triumphs on reality shows. Her ability to speak, her intelligence, that she has a response covering any specific theme, cannot be doubted. Hillary does not resort to raising scandals nor to the empty populist phrase. Her political work speaks for itself. But Monday is about a television show, something about which Trump does have experience. A few days ago at the Emmys, the host, Jimmy Kimmel, made a joke about everything having started on The Apprentice, the reality show on which Trump right and left fired aspirants wanting to direct one of his companies.

That was in 2004. Now, twelve years later, he is competing in a very close race against one of the most important leaders of recent years. It is time for Hillary to begin the “show,” her political ability has already been proven. I can only hope that she, using the theatrical skills that she has lately managed to acquire, even though it has cost her, can end the debate saying to Donald Trump, “You’re fired!”