It’s the Congress, Stupid!
Published in Público
(Portugal) on 1 November 2016
by Alexandre Guerra (link to original)
Americans really can't believe politicians. Instead, they believe in what they see and what they hear. A few weeks ago, The Washington Post made public a revealing 2005 video in which Donald Trump makes undignified comments about the way he had "related" to women. It became clear in that moment that the Republican candidate had suffered a hard blow to his campaign from which it would be difficult to recover, even having the best spin doctors in the world at his service (which he certainly does not). Not even the most recent FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton's emails could change the dynamics of the election results.
This fatal blow to Trump was not so much due to what he says in the video (which, you could say, do not exactly come across as news), but more so the way it happened. It wasn't about one more woman who came forward to denounce Trump's perverse behavior, or one more newspaper article accusing the tycoon of inappropriate actions, however serious and sustained such charges might be. This time, Americans saw and heard – from his own mouth – the man he is at his core, in a totally relaxed environment, stripped of the (few) filters that he has.
Regardless of any planned political communication strategy, Trump spouted a lot of harmless nonsense during his campaign and also pieced together several serious statements with regard to what are considered fundamental human rights. He always said this in the context of the campaign, which allowed him to gain a kind of untouchable status. Part of the electorate may have handed him an award for stupidity, while the other part seemed to get along so well with his political personality that Trump managed to overtake his rival in the polls and shake the foundations of the American political system.
The Washington Post story "ended" Trump’s presidential aspirations all at once, and from that moment the downward spiral became unstoppable. Republican Jim Dornan, who worked with Trump at the beginning of his presidential candidacy, told Politico a few days ago that we should have no doubts that "Trump is done." And this is the belief of most Republicans, even the most conservative, and even many leaders of the tea party. In fact, calculating the average results of all published polls over the past few months, it appears that Clinton always remained in the lead, with an advantage of three to five percentage points. Using these averages, Trump was never in front.
The challenge today for Republican Party strategists is to figure out the best course it needs to take for damage control. They need to avoid the adverse effects that Trump's campaign could have in the races for contested seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate. And it is on Congress that the GOP communication consultants should really be focused, since several Republican candidates for both Congress and the Senate are faced with a dilemma: either distance themselves from Trump and risk calling into question their support for his candidacy, or publicly support Trump and be strongly attacked by his Democratic rivals.
Hillary Clinton has realized this and is already eyeing Congress, namely the possibility of regaining a majority in the Senate, which would give her a boost of power on her journey to the White House. More difficult will be the House of Representatives, but any gain in Democratic seats will invariably be seen as a victory for Clinton.
With the elections less than a week away, Democratic Party and GOP strategists should really start thinking more about Congress than about the White House. Unless something catastrophic happens in Hillary's campaign, it will be in the House of Representatives and the Senate that the Republicans may find their redemption and the Democrats their full glory.
This fatal blow to Trump was not so much due to what he says in the video (which, you could say, do not exactly come across as news), but more so the way it happened. It wasn't about one more woman who came forward to denounce Trump's perverse behavior, or one more newspaper article accusing the tycoon of inappropriate actions, however serious and sustained such charges might be. This time, Americans saw and heard – from his own mouth – the man he is at his core, in a totally relaxed environment, stripped of the (few) filters that he has.
Regardless of any planned political communication strategy, Trump spouted a lot of harmless nonsense during his campaign and also pieced together several serious statements with regard to what are considered fundamental human rights. He always said this in the context of the campaign, which allowed him to gain a kind of untouchable status. Part of the electorate may have handed him an award for stupidity, while the other part seemed to get along so well with his political personality that Trump managed to overtake his rival in the polls and shake the foundations of the American political system.
The Washington Post story "ended" Trump’s presidential aspirations all at once, and from that moment the downward spiral became unstoppable. Republican Jim Dornan, who worked with Trump at the beginning of his presidential candidacy, told Politico a few days ago that we should have no doubts that "Trump is done." And this is the belief of most Republicans, even the most conservative, and even many leaders of the tea party. In fact, calculating the average results of all published polls over the past few months, it appears that Clinton always remained in the lead, with an advantage of three to five percentage points. Using these averages, Trump was never in front.
The challenge today for Republican Party strategists is to figure out the best course it needs to take for damage control. They need to avoid the adverse effects that Trump's campaign could have in the races for contested seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate. And it is on Congress that the GOP communication consultants should really be focused, since several Republican candidates for both Congress and the Senate are faced with a dilemma: either distance themselves from Trump and risk calling into question their support for his candidacy, or publicly support Trump and be strongly attacked by his Democratic rivals.
Hillary Clinton has realized this and is already eyeing Congress, namely the possibility of regaining a majority in the Senate, which would give her a boost of power on her journey to the White House. More difficult will be the House of Representatives, but any gain in Democratic seats will invariably be seen as a victory for Clinton.
With the elections less than a week away, Democratic Party and GOP strategists should really start thinking more about Congress than about the White House. Unless something catastrophic happens in Hillary's campaign, it will be in the House of Representatives and the Senate that the Republicans may find their redemption and the Democrats their full glory.
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