President Duterte: Let’s Confirm His True Intention of Breaking Away from the US

Published in Nishinippon Shimbun
(Japan) on 28 October 2016
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Stephanie Chiu. Edited by Sarah Hamilton.
Is he the king of careless remarks, saying whatever he wants to say? Or does he only seem rude, when in reality he’s a persistent strategist? President Duterte of the Philippines has no set image.

On Oct. 26, Duterte arrived in Japan to speak with Prime Minister Abe. The most important discussion point to concentrate on was the stance that Duterte would take in response to China’s military expansion in the South China Sea.

During the previous administration, the Philippines laid claim to the region and fiercely contested China for it. Japan and the U.S. pressed China to accept the ruling of the arbitration case, which acknowledged the Philippines’ claim.

However, both countries ended up having the rug pulled out from under them when Duterte met with General Secretary Xi Jinping on Oct. 20. As it turns out, the Philippines had received a great amount of economic assistance from China and had ended up filing away the whole issue of the South China Sea.

Keeping in mind the antagonism between Japan and China over the South and East China Seas, Duterte vowed to stand on Japan’s side in the meeting with Prime Minister Abe. He also showed he acknowledged the importance of the arbitration case’s ruling.

At first glance, it seems the Philippines has changed its diplomatic policies once again and returned to cooperating with Japan. The only thing is, its highest priority is its own economic development. As such, the Philippines has adopted a strategy where it gives lip service to both Japan and China in order to draw as much assistance as it possibly can.

On the other hand, it’s clear that Duterte intends to take an anti-American position. In his visits to Japan and China, he gave speeches calling for the withdrawal of American troops stationed in the Philippines. It seems he’s cutting down the diplomatic stance of “U.S. servitude” that the Philippines has taken up to now; instead, Duterte is now looking to carve his own brand of diplomacy by seeking stronger relations with China.

If things go as he says and the Philippines really do alienate themselves from the U.S., the U.S. will lose its foothold in this region – thereby causing a great disruption to its security.

By breaking away so quickly from the U.S., will we Asian countries benefit in the long run, much less the Philippines itself? I’d like for the Philippines to set aside its feelings toward the U.S. and make a careful decision. The Japanese government is watching Duterte to see the brand of diplomacy he chooses, and it hopes to continue to treat the Philippines as a long-time ally.


ドゥテルテ大統領 「米国離れ」真意見極めよ

場当たり的に言いたいことを言う「放言王」なのか。それとも粗野に見えて実はしたたかな戦略家なのか。フィリピンのドゥテルテ大統領の人物像が定まらない。

 ドゥテルテ大統領が来日し、26日に安倍晋三首相と会談した。最も注目されたのは、中国が軍事拠点化を進める南シナ海問題について、ドゥテルテ氏がどのような姿勢を示すか、という点だった。

 フィリピンは前政権時代、南シナ海の領有権を巡って中国と激しく対立していた。日本と米国は、フィリピン側の主張を認めた仲裁裁判所の判断を受け入れるよう中国に迫っている。

 しかしドゥテルテ氏は20日の習近平国家主席との会談で、中国から巨額の経済支援を取り付けるとともに、南シナ海問題を事実上棚上げしたため、日米両国ははしごを外される格好となっていた。

 今回の安倍首相との会談で、ドゥテルテ氏は南・東シナ海での日中対立を念頭に「必ず日本側に立つ」と表明し、仲裁裁判所の判断も重視する考えを示した。

 一見すれば、外交方針を再び転換させ、日本との連携を選択する姿勢に立ち戻ったように見える。ただ、自国の経済発展を最優先し、日中双方にリップサービスしてできるだけ多くの支援を呼び込む戦略とも受け取れる。

 一方で鮮明になってきたのはドゥテルテ氏の反米志向である。来日中にも講演で、フィリピン駐留米軍の撤退を求める発言をした。これまでのフィリピン外交を「対米追従」と切り捨て、中国との関係強化も視野に独自の外交路線を模索する姿勢のようだ。

 もしその言葉どおり、フィリピンが米国から離反すれば、米国がこの地域で足場を失い、安全保障の構図に大きな変化を及ぼす。

 そうした急速な「米国離れ」は、フィリピンはもとよりアジア諸国の中長期的な利益にかなうのか。米国への感情は脇に置き、慎重に判断してほしい。日本政府はドゥテルテ氏の言動を注視して外交路線を見極め、長年の友好国として適切な働き掛けを続けたい。
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