Have No Delusions, We Are Prepared To Wrestle with Trump

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Fiona McAllister. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
Trump’s comments on the "One China" policy have become a bargaining chip with which he wants China to make concessions on aspects such as trade. The shrewd businessman probably thinks he is being extremely clever, but in reality, this man who has been elected as the next American president and who has never had any experience with the realities of diplomacy between superpowers probably does not understand what he is talking about at all. He overestimates America’s ability to dominate the world and does not see the limitations of its power today.

Within the range of the western Pacific coastal waters off mainland China, China is already extremely powerful. China has never undertaken frontline expansion and has therefore developed the ability to handle any strategic challenge to its close surroundings. China already has enough confidence to wrestle with America – particularly in the Taiwan Strait.

Trump has made a series of remarks overstepping the mark, which demonstrates that he looks down on China. But pride comes before a fall. Trump hasn’t even entered the White House yet and he is already revealing his hand toward China. In firing shots at the "One China" policy, Trump’s strategy is already being put in place before he even takes office.

China must demand the establishment of respect between Trump’s government and the Chinese government. If not, the two countries will be fundamentally unable to deal with one another. Have absolutely no delusions that America will abandon its provocation of China regarding crucial Chinese territories in exchange for a policy of appeasement during Trump’s presidency. China and America need to try and verify each other’s strengths and agree on some kind of level of mutual respect, and only once these core issues have been established will China and the U.S. be able to live together in relative harmony.

In fact, before Trump’s election, America’s strategy toward China demonstrated its lack of patience and the situation was often called "critical." Urging by American warmongers to contain China’s rapid rise grow ever stronger. Trump’s extreme words and actions should suit the current mood of America’s ultraconservative groups.

China’s core interest region has hardly expanded at all during its development; its control of potential risks with respect to Taiwan and the South China Sea is different from how it was before. China has a full toolbox with which to strike back at Trump’s trade threats, therefore, no matter what conflict should occur between China and the U.S., we will not lose. Our strategic willpower is more resolute than that of our opponent, ultimately discouraging Trump’s government from possibly beginning a strategy of provocation.

In the event that Trump is swayed by those at his side and really wants to play coarse and wild games which neither country will win, China should resolutely enter into such games with America. According to America, there is insufficient domestic support for this mysterious venture, but for China, it is a decisive battle over the defense of our core interests, and we cannot lose.

Beijing ought to severely punish the rising Taiwanese independence movement. Taiwanese authorities gaining rapport with America impacts the "One China" policy, once again forcing us to see the long-term damage the Taiwanese independence movement causes. Continuing to crack down on the Taiwanese independence movement is becoming a more pressing issue for mainland China. Beijing needs to apply pressure from all sides on the Taiwanese independence movement and should explore the possibility of using different levels of non-peaceful means to punish the movement. We need to be able to "Lebanonize" Taiwan when necessary, and using military force to thoroughly recover Taiwan is turning into a serious option.

Trump is a wild card and China is going to need diplomatic imagination to deal with him. We must also have the courage to take action when it is least expected, and form a new pattern of behavior with America akin to “you fight your way, and we’ll fight our way.” Most importantly, we must not be concerned about whether or not the newest occupant of the White House is happy. He repeatedly provokes others, so if he is not being humiliated in return, I am afraid he may feel a bit confused.

Due to his relentless campaign to win the White House, Trump probably wants a grand unprecedented ascension to the throne and to have all other nations make pilgrimages to pay tribute to him before he takes up office as "Trump the Great" – an unprecedented event in world history. But many intelligent people in America are watching Trump because of his derisive attitude, and for this reason they will definitely not be supporting him in fighting his war on all fronts, and will not follow him in creating a new world which stands on the precipice of chaos.

China will not pay protection money in the hopes of an easy and comfortable life. Since the time of Mao Zedong we have never surrendered to the outside. The difference in strength between China and the U.S. has never been as small as it is today. What reason would we have to agree to a pact with Trump that, from China’s perspective, is unfair and makes us feel humiliated?


不抱各种幻想,准备与特朗普掰手腕
 
特朗普11日公开将“一个中国”政策说成是他要求中国在贸易政策等方面做出让步的筹码,这位精明的商人大概觉得自己非常有智慧,拿住了中国的“命门”。而实际上,这位从未有过大国外交实际经验的美国当选总统很可能根本不知道自己在说什么。他大大高估了美国主宰世界的能力,不了解美国力量在这个时代的局限性。

  中国已是西太平洋靠近大陆近海范围实力非常殷实的国家,中国从未做战线扩张,因而积累了在最近周边对付任何战略挑战的能力。尤其在台湾海峡,中国现在已经有足够的信心与美国掰手腕。

  特朗普的一系列出格发言显示,他在战略上藐视中国。骄兵必败,他人还没进白宫就已经亮出了敲诈中国的底牌。然而在射出了针对“一个中国”政策的这支箭之后,他的战略主动性就已经预支了一大半。

中国必须要树立特朗普团队对我方的尊重,否则今后4年的中美交道根本没法打。切不可幻想通过绥靖政策可以换取特朗普时期美国放弃对中国在关键领域的刺痛。中美需要新一轮的斗争,验证双方实力应匹配什么样的相互尊重程度,只有把这个核心问题搞清楚了,中美接下来才能大体相安无事。

  实际上,在特朗普胜选之前,美国战略界就表现出对中国的不耐烦,“临界点”之说盛行,美国鹰派遏制中国崛起的冲动愈发强烈。特朗普的激进言行应当说迎合了那部分美国极端保守势力的情绪。

  中国发展到了今天的程度,我们的核心利益区几乎没怎么扩大,我们对台海以及南海潜在风险的控制力都今非昔比。反击特朗普的经贸威逼,我们也有满满的工具箱,因此无论与美国发生什么冲突,我们的手段都不会输于对方,我们的战略意志也有条件做到比对方坚定得多,从而最终逼退特朗普政府有可能发动的战略挑衅。

  如果特朗普被身边人忽悠,真要玩一把“杀敌一千自损八百”的狂野游戏,中国就应坚决奉陪。对美国来说这是国内支持严重不足的一次莫名其妙的“远征”,而对中国来说这是捍卫自己核心利益的决定性一战,我们不可能失败。

  北京应当从严惩“台独”势力做起。台当局配合美国冲击“一个中国”政策,让我们重新认识了“台独”的长远危害。进一步打击“台独”势力,也成为中国大陆更紧迫的课题。北京需要加大对“台独”的全面施压,探讨通过非和平手段给“台独”不同程度惩罚的可能性。我们需要有能力在必要时将台湾“黎巴嫩化”,并且让通过武力彻底收复台湾成为真实的选项之一。

  特朗普是个不按常理出牌的人,与他打交道,中国需要外交想象力。我们也要敢于采取出其不意的行动,对美形成“你打你的,我打我的”新格局。最重要的是不要担心白宫新主人不高兴。他反复刺激别人,如果反过来不受到羞辱,恐怕他自己都会感到奇怪。

  特朗普这些天不断为自己“入主白宫”造势,他大概想有一个前所未有的豪华“登基”,那就是朝圣的万邦将贡品提前给他摆好,迎接美利坚也是世界历史上拥有前所未有威严的“特朗普大帝”。但美国很多有识之士都在以嘲笑的心态看待特朗普的表演。他们尤其不会为此跟随他南征北战,进入一个走向断崖式混乱的新世界。

  中国不会以交保护费的方式苟且偷安,从毛泽东时代开始,我们从没有对外屈服过。现在是中美实力相差最小的时代,我们有什么理由从特朗普手里接下一份对中国来说最不平等、甚至能让我们感到屈辱的协议呢?
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