Be Wary of the US Senate’s Proposals for Preemptive Strike on North Korea

Published in The Kyunghyang Shinmun
(South Korea) on 2 February 2017
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Yoo An. Edited by Rachel Pott.
Soon after the Trump administration took office, Americans began voicing a hard-line stance on North Korea, with some proposing a pre-emptive strike. U.S. Sen. Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, told a Senate hearing on Wednesday that the “current approach [to rein in the regime’s weapons program] is not working,” and asked whether the U.S. needs to “be prepared to pre-emptively strike a North Korean ICBM,” or intercontinental ballistic missile. He also mentioned a possible “regime change” using non-military measures.

Chairman Corker's public proposal for a pre-emptive strike portrays how the U.S. perspective on North Korea is changing. This trend can also be seen in statements made by Trump’s Department of State and Department of Homeland Security. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has never raised the alternative of negotiating through six-party talks, and Secretary of Defense James Mattis stated he would search for ways to destroy North Korean nuclear facilities with conventional weapons.* Even experts on North Korea have talked of military measures, such as sinking the nation’s submarines.

Some claim the U.S. should not completely rule out diplomatic means, but it is notable that talks of pre-emptive strikes on North Korea are rising around the same time the Trump administration has taken office. Part of it could also have to do with the fact that unlike the first crisis, where the U.S. had prepared a pre-emptive strike on North Korea, North Korea now possesses nuclear weapons and has reached the final stages of miniaturizing warheads and developing delivery vehicles.

South Korea has stated that it is willing to launch a pre-emptive strike if it becomes clear that the North is preparing a nuclear missile attack. On the other hand, the U.S. wants to remove North Korea’s nuclear missiles as a precautionary measure. If true, that is an extremely dangerous idea. South Korea will not agree to a reckless decision that could trigger a war, and the U.S. will have to abandon such military tactics without our consent.

Because the international community has decided to sanction North Korea, that is what we should continue to do for the time being. But putting one-sided pressure on North Korea can only strengthen the country’s need and validity for developing nuclear weapons. It can also create tension on the Korean Peninsula and endanger our security and economy. The purpose of the United Nations resolution is to pressure and encourage North Korea to open up to dialogue. We cannot forget that the purpose is to draw them to the negotiation table, and the Trump administration needs to figure out how to do that. It would be unthinkable for the U.S. to determine the fate of the Korean Peninsula through coercive means alone.

*Editor’s note: The six-party talks are a series of multilateral negotiations held intermittently since 2003 and attended by China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea and the United States for the purpose of dismantling North Korea’s nuclear program.


도널드 트럼프 미 행정부가 출범하자마자 미국에서 선제타격론 등 대북 강경론이 나오고 있다. 밥 코커 미 상원 외교위원장은 그제 외교위원회 주최로 열린 청문회에서 “제재만으로는 북한의 핵 개발을 포기시킬 수 없다”며 “미국이 발사대에 있는 북한의 대륙간탄도미사일(ICBM)을 공격할 준비를 해야 하는가”라고 물었다. 그는 ‘비군사적 수단을 이용한 정권교체 모색’도 거론했다.

코커 위원장의 선제타격 공언은 북한을 보는 미국 내 시각이 변화하고 있음을 반영하고 있다. 트럼프 행정부 외교안보 담당자들의 발언에서도 이런 흐름은 어렵지 않게 감지할 수 있다. 렉스 틸러슨 미 국무장관은 인사청문회에서 6자회담을 통한 협상을 한번도 언급하지 않았다. 제임스 매티스 국방장관은 북핵 시설을 재래식 무기로 격퇴할 방안을 보고하겠다고 했다. 북한 전문가들도 북한 잠수함의 격침 등 군사적 대응 카드를 언급했다.

외교적 수단을 배제하지 말아야 한다는 목소리도 있지만 트럼프 행정부 출범에 즈음해 대북 선제타격 논의와 구상이 부상하는 현상은 분명 주목되는 일이다. 미국이 대북 선제타격을 준비했던 1차 북핵 위기 때와 달리 북한의 핵무기 보유가 현실화하고 탄두 소형화 및 운반체 개발이 마지막 단계에 와 있는 시점이라는 점도 작용했을 것이다.

한국은 북한의 핵 미사일 공격 징후가 명확하면 선제타격할 수 있다는 입장을 표명한 바 있다. 반면 미국은 북한의 핵탄두 미사일 능력을 예방 차원에서 제거한다는 개념으로 보인다. 만일 그렇다면 위험천만한 생각이 아닐 수 없다. 한국은 결코 전쟁을 촉발하는 그런 무모한 모험에 동의해주지 않을 것이고 동의가 없는 한 미국은 군사적 행동을 포기해야 한다.

국제사회가 대북 제재를 결정한 만큼 당분간 대북 압박 기조를 유지할 수밖에 없다. 하지만 북한을 일방적으로 압박하기만 한다면 북한의 핵 개발 필요성과 정당성만을 강화해줄 것이다. 또한 한반도 긴장을 조성, 안보와 경제를 위기에 빠뜨릴 수 있다. 유엔 결의안의 취지는 북한을 압박하면서 대화도 병행하라는 것이다. 압박의 목적은 대화임을 잊어서는 안된다. 트럼프 행정부는 북한을 대화로 이끌어낼 수 있는 방안을 두고 고민해야 한다. 강압적 수단만 동원한 미국이 한반도의 운명을 일방적으로 결정한다는 것은 상상할 수 없는 일이다.
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