Is America Serious About Opposing North Korea?

Published in Nikkei Shimbun
(Japan) on 22 March 2017
by Editorial (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Fatuma Muhamed. Edited by Elizabeth Cosgriff.
The Trump administration is displaying a firm stance in dealing with North Korea. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who recently visited Japan, Korea, and China, has stated that he is willing to launch a pre-emptive strike depending on the circumstances. This drastic change in policy would have a grave impact on Japan. I would like to see just how serious is he, and how far he is willing to negotiate.

“I think it’s important to recognize that the political and diplomatic efforts of the past 20 years to bring North Korea to the point of denuclearization have failed … In the face of this ever-escalating threat, it is clear that a different approach is required.” Tillerson emphasized this during his meeting with the Abe administration. In Korea, he responded to questions about the possibility of America using military force by saying that “all options are on the table.”

The Obama administration upheld a policy of “strategic patience,” only agreeing to engage in talks with North Korea if it abandoned nuclear development. America has now pivoted, applying pressure not only because of Trump's personality, but because North Korea has made rapid progress in its military technology.

After a North Korean missile test, South Korea momentarily believed North Korea had fired intercontinental ballistic missiles. While South Korea soon realized its error, it appears that the technology is not far from becoming capable of reaching American soil. After witnessing these events on the other side of the world, America must eventually deal with them seriously.

The issue lies in China’s attitude, as China has considerable influence on North Korea. While Tillerson was visiting China, Trump was blaming North Korea for its lack of cooperation. Nevertheless, Tillerson invited Xi Jinping to visit America next month [in April], though specific details of the discussion are unknown.

In diplomatic dealings, it is important to strike a balance between dialogue and applying pressure. North Korea's provocative conduct goes against the common sense of the global community, and America has now realized that this requires a change in approach. On the other hand, the U.S. must not engage in another reckless fight like the Iraq War.

I would like to see the Abe administration closely cooperate with and skillfully maintain a balance in its relationship with Korea, a relationship which has grown cold, in addition to maintaining its relations with America.

Japan must also remember to prepare for unforeseen circumstances. For example, in the unlikely event that war breaks out between America and North Korea, what will the Self-Defense Forces be able to do? What will they be unable to do? Japan and America must work on regulations so that public opinion is not divided on this issue.

This fall, the government will review the current National Defense Program Outline, which was drawn up in 2013. It is at times like these that we must carefully explain the Anpo,* a security treaty that encircles Japan, to the people.

*Editor’s note: Anpo is a Japanese term for the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan, first signed in 1952, and amended in 1960; providing, among other things, for mutual defense obligations.




米トランプ政権が北朝鮮に強硬姿勢で臨む構えをみせている。日本、韓国、中国の3カ国を歴訪したティラーソン国務長官は、情勢次第で先制攻撃も辞さない考えを表明した。日本にも重大な影響を与える政策変更である。どこまでが本気で、どこからが駆け引きなのか。注意深く見守りたい。

 「20年間の(朝鮮半島の)非核化の努力は失敗した。違うアプローチが必要だ」。ティラーソン氏は安倍晋三首相らとの会談でこう強調した。韓国では軍事力行使の可能性について「あらゆる選択肢を検討する」と明言した。

 オバマ前政権は「戦略的忍耐」を掲げ、北朝鮮が核開発を断念するならば話し合いに応じるとしてきた。米国が圧力に軸足を移す背景には、トランプ大統領の人柄もあるが、北朝鮮の軍事技術の急速な進歩がある。

 先の北朝鮮のミサイル発射を巡り、韓国はいったんは「大陸間弾道ミサイル(ICBM)ではないか」との見方を示した。その後、間違いとわかったが、米本土に到達可能な技術水準に至るのはさほど遠くなさそうだ。地球の裏側のできごととみてきた米国も真剣に取り組まざるを得なくなった。

 課題は北朝鮮に影響力を持つ中国の出方だ。ティラーソン氏の訪中に合わせてトランプ氏は「中国はほとんど協力していない」と非難した。ただ、北京でのティラーソン氏は来月の習近平国家主席の訪米を歓迎する発言に終始し、協議の中身はよくわからなかった。

 どんな外交も、対話と圧力の適切な組み合わせが重要である。北朝鮮の挑発行為は国際社会の常識を外れており、その意味で米国がアプローチを修正することは理解できる。他方、かつてのイラク戦争のような無謀な戦いにつながることがあってはならない。

 安倍政権は米国だけでなく、関係が冷え込んでいる韓国とも緊密に連携し、上手にバランスを取る役割を果たしてほしい。

 不測の事態への備えも忘れてはならない。万が一だが、米朝が戦闘状態に陥った場合、自衛隊ができること、できないことは何なのか。日米の調整を進め、有事に国論が二分しないようにしなくてはならない。

 政府は2013年に策定した現在の「防衛計画の大綱」を今年秋にも改定する。こうした機会に日本を取り巻く安保環境を国民に丁寧に説明すべきだ。
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