Trump’s Troubling Frivolity

Published in El Mundo
(Spain) on 15 April 2017
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Annabel Gill. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
The unpredictability with which America is acting abroad is troubling, especially because it gives the impression that, right now in the White House, there is very little geopolitical strategy and a rather large dose of frivolity. The launch on Afghanistan of the most powerful non-nuclear bomb in the American arsenal – or the second, according to some military experts –has surprised the world once more, just days after Washington staged its first attack on the Syrian regime. This is a big demonstration of strength, a display of muscle; but it is difficult to tell if the episode is more than just propaganda.

The Pentagon states that the launch of what is known as the mother of all bombs has managed to destroy an area of tunnels and caves that served as a hiding place for the Islamic State in the eastern part of Afghanistan. Yesterday the authorities in Kabul reported that at least 34 jihadis have died, which was denied in the usual Islamic State group rhetoric. The operation, in any case, presents doubts. Firstly, because it is difficult to know what real effects the explosion of the GBY-43 bomb has had – the blast wave of which is recorded as having a radius larger than an area twice the size of Barcelona. Secondly, we are dealing with a device that began production in 2003, but one that the U.S. had never used. Obama refused to use it because it is a very controversial weapon due to its unpredictable impact. In fact, it is considered, above all, a means of psychological pressure. The Kabul government, as this newspaper has learned, is outraged because it believes that Washington has chosen its country as a laboratory for testing such debauched and "inhuman" military weaponry, as former President Karzai called it.

It seems that the order to launch the bomb did not come directly from Trump, who after describing it as "a new success of the army," acknowledged that he has given free reign to the Pentagon high command to act in the area. What is clear is that Washington has decided to exercise hard power and, with the latest attacks in the Middle East, warns that it will not hesitate to use force in the face of any security threat. This is a warning that is also directed at the North Korean regime, sounding alarm bells because the tension in Southeast Asia is already at a maximum.

Pyongyang seems ready to carry out a new nuclear test immediately – which would be the sixth one – and Trump has sent an aircraft carrier to the region, determined to stop the dictator of the last Stalinist regime on the planet. China has called for maximum containment, asking the U.S. not to trigger a total crisis, and, for its part, Washington blames Beijing for being too patronizing in recent years with Pyongyang, thus allowing the nuclear scandal to get out of hand. It is true that the immobility of China, the only major power that has a strong relationship with North Korea, has done nothing to pacify the situation. But the issue is so delicate that it demands, above all, concerted action by the international community, rather than unilateral responses from any actor.

U.S. allies, primarily NATO, have the responsibility to make Trump understand that global security requires cooperation. But first and foremost, what must be demanded of the first power is a medium and long-term strategy. There is no room for the frivolity with which the president ordered the attack on Syria while he relaxed with "the most beautiful piece of chocolate cake," nor can he continue to give the impression that destabilizing the fragile world order is a game for him.


La inquietante frivolidad de Trump
La imprevisiblidad con la que está actuando Estados Unidos en el exterior resulta inquietante, sobre todo porque da la impresión de que en la Casa Blanca ahora mismo hay muy poca estrategia geopolítica y bastantes dosis de frivolidad. El lanzamiento sobre Afganistán de la bomba no nuclear más potente del arsenal americano -o la segunda, según matizan algunos expertos militares; tanto da- ha vuelto a sorprender al mundo, apenas días después de que Washington protagonizara su primer ataque contra el régimen sirio. Estamos ante una gran demostración de fuerza, toda una exhibición de músculo. Pero no es fácil saber si el episodio es algo más que propaganda.

El Pentágono dice que el lanzamiento de la conocida como madre de todas las bombas ha servido para destruir una zona de túneles y cuevas que servían de escondrijo al Estado Islámico en el este de Afganistán. Y las autoridades de Kabul informaron ayer de que al menos 34 yihadistas habrían muerto, lo que fue desmentido en su retórica habitual por el IS. La operación, en todo caso, ofrece dudas. Primero, por su eficacia. Es difícil saber qué efectos reales ha tenido la explosión de la bomba GBU-43, cuya onda expansiva se hizo notar en un radio superior al de una zona cuyo tamaño equivale a dos veces Barcelona. Y, segundo, porque estamos ante un artefacto que se empezó a fabricar en 2003, pero que EEUU no había utilizado nunca. Obama rehusó emplearlo porque es un arma muy controvertida por lo imprevisible del impacto. De hecho, se considera sobre todo un medio de presión psicológica. El Gobierno de Kabul, como ha sabido este periódico, está indignado porque considera que Washington ha escogido su país como laboratorio para realizar pruebas con un armamento militar tan discutible e "inhumano", como lo tachó el ex presidente Karzai.

La orden de lanzamiento de la bomba parece que no la dio directamente Trump, quien tras calificarlo como "un nuevo éxito del ejército", reconoció que ha dado vía libre a los altos mandos del Pentágono para actuar en la zona. Lo que está claro es que Washington ha decidido ejercer el poder duro, y con los últimos ataques en Oriente Próximo advierte que no le va temblar el pulso para usar la fuerza ante cualquier amenaza a la seguridad. Un aviso que también va dirigido al régimen norcoreano, haciendo saltar las alarmas porque la tensión en el sudeste asiático es máxima.

Pyongyang parece dispuesto a realizar de manera inminente un nuevo ensayo nuclear -sería ya el sexto- y Trump ha enviado a la región un portaaviones, decidido a parar los pies al dictador del último régimen estalinista del planeta. China ha pedido máxima contención a EEUU para no desencadenar una crisis total. Y, por su parte, Washington culpa a Pekín de haber sido demasiado condescendiente en los últimos años con Pyongyang, permitiendo así que laescalada nuclear se esté yendo de las manos. Es cierto que el inmovilismo de China, la única gran potencia que mantiene relaciones, además de un fuerte influjo, con Corea del Norte, no ha ayudado nada a pacificar la situación. Pero el tema es tan delicado que exige, antes que nada, una actuación concertada de la comunidad internacional y no respuestas unilaterales de ningún actor.

Los aliados de EEUU -fundamentalmente la OTAN- tienen la responsabilidad de hacer entender a Trump que la seguridad mundial exige cooperación. Pero, ante todo, lo que se debe demandar a la primera potencia es una estrategia a medio y largo plazo. Ni cabe la frivolidad de que el presidente ordenara atacar Siria mientras se relamía con "la más hermosa tarta de chocolate", ni puede seguir dando la impresión que desestabilizar el frágil orden mundial es para él un juego.
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