The Mexican Obsession

Published in El País
(Spain) on 22 October 2017
by Editorial (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Kaleb Vick. Edited by Rachel Pott.
Trump wants to blow up the North American Free Trade Agreement that the United States has with Canada and Mexico.

Donald Trump’s intention to blow up the free trade agreement the United States has with Canada and Mexico could be one of the biggest errors of his presidency, with grave economic, political and strategic consequences.

Trump seeks to insert a clause that would automatically terminate the agreement in five years unless all the other members agree to extend it. Such a measure is unheard of in any other treaty of this nature, because, among other reasons, free trade is a progressive process with benefits that continue to increase. But Trump won't stop with the argument that his country loses with the treaty while Mexico wins, which is a false statement with all the numbers at hand.

The economic model Trump wants for the United States, with a focus on industry and manufacturing, simply doesn't exist. The U.S. leader believes it is possible to disassemble the manufacturing industry in Mexico and move it to the United States, and to do so he has to dismantle NAFTA. But he doesn't realize we're in the 21st century. In that scenario, the jobs destroyed in Mexico wouldn't be created in the United States: they'd be automated.

At these heights, politically, Trump should understand that he can't permanently insult a neighbor, partner and ally. His anti-Mexican obsession marked his campaign, and it pops up anytime he has the smallest internal problem. A strong, prosperous, stable and democratic Mexico – like Canada to the north – is the best thing that could happen to the U.S. NAFTA is an essential tool where everyone wins.

The messages that Trump keeps sending to the world suggest that the U.S. is not a reliable ally and that it is not interested in developing an international community. Fortunately, there still remains a majority who doesn't believe him.


Trump quiere dinamitar el Tratado de Libre Comercio que EE UU mantiene con Canadá y México

La intención de Donald Trump de dinamitar el Tratado de Libre Comercio que EE UU mantiene con Canadá y México puede ser uno de los mayores errores de su presidencia, con gravísimas consecuencias económicas, políticas y estratégicas.

Trump pretende introducir una cláusula de terminación automática del acuerdo en cinco años a no ser que los socios expresen lo contrario. Es una medida inexistente en cualquier otro tratado de esta naturaleza, entre otras razones porque el libre comercio es un proceso progresivo cuyos beneficios van in crescendo. Pero sucede que Trump no se apea del pensamiento de que su país pierde con el TLC mientras México gana, lo que es falso con los números en la mano.

El modelo económico que busca Trump para EE UU, industrial y manufacturero, sencillamente ya no existe. El mandatario estadounidense cree en que es posible desmontar la industria manufacturera en México y trasladarla a EE UU y para ello debe dinamitar el TLC. Pero no tiene en cuenta que estamos en el siglo XXI. En ese improbable movimiento, los puestos de trabajo destruidos en México no se crearían en EE UU; serían automatizados.

Políticamente, a estas alturas Trump debería haber entendido ya que no se puede insultar permanentemente a un vecino, socio y aliado. Su obsesión antimexicana marcó la campaña y aflora cada vez que tiene el más mínimo problema interno. Un México fuerte, próspero, estable y democrático —como lo es Canadá al norte— es lo mejor que le podría pasar a EE UU. El TLC es una herramienta fundamental con la que ganan todos.

Los mensajes que Trump sigue mandando a todo el mundo sugieren que EE UU ya no es un aliado fiable, y que no está interesado en el desarrollo de la comunidad internacional. Afortunadamente, todavía hay una mayoría que no le cree.
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