Good Luck, Mr. President!
Published in Der Spiegel
(Germany) on 2 June 2018
by Christoph Scheuermann (link to original)
Donald Trump meets North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on June 12, which seems set now. This is the moment to wish the U.S. president all the luck in the world.
It’s often said that Donald Trump hates the media, but that’s not true. All you have to do is watch his impromptu press conference at the White House on Friday. He smiled at the journalists gathered around him, flirting with them, always posing new questions, as if he had all the time in the world.
Shortly before, he had said goodbye to a North Korean envoy in the Oval Office. Trump loves the media when they hang on his every word – like on this Friday afternoon, when it became clear that this crazy summit, which had already been canceled, was suddenly taking place.
Trump stumbled into North Korea the same way he stumbled into office. With luck and help from very strange circumstances, but with no reason. Now he finds himself in a situation where, the week after next, he will stare into the eyes of a man whom, not long ago, he threatened with nuclear annihilation. Trump meets Kim Jong Un in Singapore on June 12. This sentence is already absurd. Regardless, this time you have to wish the president all the luck in the world.
Trump’s Self-Confidence Could Be Helpful
Trump should and must win this game, for the people of North Korea, for the West, and perhaps also for himself. The alternative is a further escalation of conflict on the Korean Peninsula – in the worst case, war.
Trump actually has the chance to accomplish more than his predecessors in this regard. In his constant state of overconfidence, he could actually usher Kim into the world community, even possibly a (distant) future without nuclear weapons in Korea. The self-confidence that Trump feels could finally be helpful.
This is not the time to make fun of him and his sad yearning for a Nobel Peace Prize. Yes, his emotional neediness is as embarrassing as everything else about this man. But this is not the moment for cynicism. We should keep our fingers crossed for him.
Will Kim Give Up His Greatest Negotiating Tool?
Of course, there is a string of arguments against a positive outcome. First, Kim Jong Un, with his nuclear warheads and intercontinental ballistic missiles, has already achieved more for himself and his ruling clan than his father and grandfather combined; he is being taken seriously. He is being courted by China, and was allowed to meet with the Chinese president twice within a short time. He has received an invitation from Moscow. He was able to send one of his most important people to the Oval Office, and he will, if all goes well, shake hands with the U.S. president. Why should he give up his most important negotiating tool?
Second, Trump is probably the most overrated negotiator under the sun. There is the possibility that he will put this burgeoning dialogue at risk with his machismo by making an offensive blunder like he did last week, when he let the summit explode. Third, there is the chance that Kim Jong Un will not commit to anything. And fourth, three U.S. presidents have already failed to tie North Korea into long-term commitments to stop the nuclear program.
Trump Apparently Expects No Unique Breakthrough
Regardless, Trump seems to have grasped that denuclearization is not an act, but a process. It will take years, perhaps a decade – if Kim wants it. Experts who agree with the researcher Siegfried Hecker from Stanford have just described the necessary stages in a detailed report. The fact that Trump, in the meantime, is talking about developments in “phases” and says there could be further meetings, indicates that he does not expect a single breakthrough. And that’s good.
Perhaps he is learning diplomacy, at least this once. Perhaps he understands how complicated politics can be when you want to find a solution. Talking is better than threatening; peace is better than war. Trump must succeed, because the alternative is unthinkable.
It’s often said that Donald Trump hates the media, but that’s not true. All you have to do is watch his impromptu press conference at the White House on Friday. He smiled at the journalists gathered around him, flirting with them, always posing new questions, as if he had all the time in the world.
Shortly before, he had said goodbye to a North Korean envoy in the Oval Office. Trump loves the media when they hang on his every word – like on this Friday afternoon, when it became clear that this crazy summit, which had already been canceled, was suddenly taking place.
Trump stumbled into North Korea the same way he stumbled into office. With luck and help from very strange circumstances, but with no reason. Now he finds himself in a situation where, the week after next, he will stare into the eyes of a man whom, not long ago, he threatened with nuclear annihilation. Trump meets Kim Jong Un in Singapore on June 12. This sentence is already absurd. Regardless, this time you have to wish the president all the luck in the world.
Trump’s Self-Confidence Could Be Helpful
Trump should and must win this game, for the people of North Korea, for the West, and perhaps also for himself. The alternative is a further escalation of conflict on the Korean Peninsula – in the worst case, war.
Trump actually has the chance to accomplish more than his predecessors in this regard. In his constant state of overconfidence, he could actually usher Kim into the world community, even possibly a (distant) future without nuclear weapons in Korea. The self-confidence that Trump feels could finally be helpful.
This is not the time to make fun of him and his sad yearning for a Nobel Peace Prize. Yes, his emotional neediness is as embarrassing as everything else about this man. But this is not the moment for cynicism. We should keep our fingers crossed for him.
Will Kim Give Up His Greatest Negotiating Tool?
Of course, there is a string of arguments against a positive outcome. First, Kim Jong Un, with his nuclear warheads and intercontinental ballistic missiles, has already achieved more for himself and his ruling clan than his father and grandfather combined; he is being taken seriously. He is being courted by China, and was allowed to meet with the Chinese president twice within a short time. He has received an invitation from Moscow. He was able to send one of his most important people to the Oval Office, and he will, if all goes well, shake hands with the U.S. president. Why should he give up his most important negotiating tool?
Second, Trump is probably the most overrated negotiator under the sun. There is the possibility that he will put this burgeoning dialogue at risk with his machismo by making an offensive blunder like he did last week, when he let the summit explode. Third, there is the chance that Kim Jong Un will not commit to anything. And fourth, three U.S. presidents have already failed to tie North Korea into long-term commitments to stop the nuclear program.
Trump Apparently Expects No Unique Breakthrough
Regardless, Trump seems to have grasped that denuclearization is not an act, but a process. It will take years, perhaps a decade – if Kim wants it. Experts who agree with the researcher Siegfried Hecker from Stanford have just described the necessary stages in a detailed report. The fact that Trump, in the meantime, is talking about developments in “phases” and says there could be further meetings, indicates that he does not expect a single breakthrough. And that’s good.
Perhaps he is learning diplomacy, at least this once. Perhaps he understands how complicated politics can be when you want to find a solution. Talking is better than threatening; peace is better than war. Trump must succeed, because the alternative is unthinkable.
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