Reset of the US-North Korea Summit: Sudden US Policy Shift

Published in Kyoto Shimbun
(Japan) on 4 June 2018
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Chris Hennessy. Edited by Elizabeth Cosgriff.

 

 

More than the outcome of the meeting, the meeting itself holds significance. Donald Trump’s announcement could be understood this way.

U.S. President Trump announced that a meeting with North Korean Workers’ Party Chairman Kim Jong Un will be held as originally scheduled on June 12 in Singapore.

The meeting of the two leaders – a historic first – holds great historical significance for the U.S. and North Korea, who have been hostile towards each other for over half a century, and will drastically shift the relationship between the two countries.

However, President Trump said “I never said it goes in one meeting. I think it’s going to be a process,” admitting that negotiations on denuclearization will take time [https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-meeting-vice-chairman-kim-yong-chol-democratic-peoples-republic-korea/]. He also stated there is no possibility of signing anything during the summit, so the chances of a June 12 comprehensive agreement on denuclearization are less likely.

Based on this, it can be understood that this meeting is just confirmation that we are at the starting line of negotiations. This newspaper worries that these most important and substantial negotiations on denuclearization will become a mere façade.

Although not easing sanctions on North Korea, Mr. Trump made security guarantees and is holding back on additional sanctions and use of the term “maximum pressure.”

The policy shift can be viewed as an acknowledgement of North Korea’s position by leaving space between the two countries regarding the denuclearization process. This newspaper believes it is a very sudden shift.

President Trump’s “easing” gives North Korea great relief since it is looking for a gradual solution based on step-by-step rewards instead of the United States’ desired short-term “complete, verifiable and irreversible” denuclearization.

There’s a possibility that future negotiations will go at North Korea’s pace. The path to denuclearization has become even more murky.

What Mr. Trump mentioned instead of the increasingly murky denuclearization issue is the ending of the Korean War (1950-1953). In April’s summit between South Korean President Moon Jae-In and Mr. Kim, both agreed on moving ahead within the year to end the war and tried working towards this goal with Mr. Trump.

Because the topic of the Korean War came up immediately before the summit, it’s uncertain how much detail can be discussed. Mr. Trump might be trying to play up results of the summit ahead of mid-term elections in the United States.

For Japan, which has to depend on Mr. Trump for working towards the abduction issue, the U.S. policy shift makes its position even more complicated.

If Japan focuses too much on a “maximum pressure” policy, the distance from the United States will grow greater. Japan needs to be flexible while assessing the true meaning of Mr. Trump’s comments.



米朝会談再設定  唐突な米国の方針転換

会談で成果を出すよりも、会うこと自体に意味がある-。そう宣言したようにもとれる。
 トランプ米大統領が北朝鮮の金正恩朝鮮労働党委員長との会談を当初の予定通り6月12日にシンガポールで行うと発表した。
 史上初となる首脳会談は、半世紀以上対立してきた米朝関係を大きく変える歴史的な意味を持つ。両国のトップ同士が直接対話に臨むことは歓迎したい。
 ただ、トランプ氏は「1回の首脳会談で非核化が実現するとは言っていない。会談はプロセスの始まりだ」と述べ、非核化の交渉に時間をかけることを認めた。何かに署名をすることもないとしており、12日に非核化に関して合意がまとまる可能性は小さくなった。
 これでは、交渉のスタートラインに立つことを確認するだけの会談になってしまわないか。最も重要な非核化の実質的な交渉が形骸化しないか気になる。
 北朝鮮への制裁は解除しないとしたものの、トランプ氏は北朝鮮の体制を保証すると明言した上、「最大限の圧力」という言葉は使わず追加制裁も控える、とした。
 非核化の手順に関する両国の隔たりを残したまま、北朝鮮の立場に理解を示す方針転換といえる。唐突な印象を否めない。
 トランプ氏の「軟化」は、米国が求める短期間での「完全かつ検証可能で不可逆的」な非核化ではなく、行動ごとに見返りを求める「段階的」な解決を目指す北朝鮮を安堵(あんど)させたことだろう。
 今後の交渉が北朝鮮ペースで進む可能性もあるのではないか。非核化への道筋はいっそう不透明になったと言わざるをえない。
 見通しにくくなった非核化問題に代わるテーマとしてトランプ氏が言及したのが朝鮮戦争(1950~53年)の終結だ。4月の南北首脳会談で文在寅韓国大統領と金氏が年内推進で合意し、トランプ氏に働きかけていた。
 首脳会談を目前にした段階で急浮上したテーマだけに、どこまで細部を詰められるかは疑問だ。秋の中間選挙を前に、会談成功を演出しようと、トランプ氏は前のめりになっているのではないか。
 拉致問題解決の働きかけをトランプ氏に頼らざるを得ない日本政府としては、米国の方針転換で立ち位置がさらに複雑となった。
 「最大限の圧力」路線にこだわりすぎれば、米国との距離が開いていく。トランプ氏の発言の真意を見失わず、柔軟に対応していく必要がある。
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