The Failure of the Trump Method

The U.S. president wants to force Iran into new negotiations by breaking the nuclear deal. However, the North Korean example shows that he is no strategic negotiator.

This Friday, the U.S. and its erratic president will appear in court over a lawsuit filed by Iran, of all countries. This unusual trial will take place at the International Court of Justice in The Hague. Iran has sued the United States over the imposition of sanctions which, according to Tehran, contravene the nuclear agreement of 2015, abandoned by the United States in May, as well as a 1955 Treaty of Amity, Economic Relations and Consular Rights. The verdict is expected to be delivered today.

What is remarkable about this trial is not the outcome, but rather the fact of the event itself. The U.S., the former leading power of the democratic liberal world, is being taken to court in The Hague as a law-breaker. Furthermore, the complaint was lodged by a country that is very much the opposite of a state based on the rule of law.

Donald Trump sees himself as a negotiation genius. He could not care less about the law. His bully/buddy method consists of intimidating his rivals and pretending to embrace them in order to make them do what he wants. He has tried this with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and, in a completely different way, with the Islamist regime in Iran. Many in the West, Israel, and some in Europe are hoping, along with Trump, that this will bring some result: maximal pressure and a tactically outstretched hand. But success is not coming. On the contrary, up to this point, Trump’s rivals have been doing the opposite of what he wants. Trump’s method has failed. But what is going to work then?

Take the North Korea example. During the summit in Singapore, Trump attempted to persuade Kim Jong Un directly, man to man. He showed him a video depicting two North Koreas: a radiant and prosperous country if Kim Jong Un gives up on his nuclear program; and a poor, ruined country should he persist with nuclear bombs. Trump issued severe threats, while at the same time, he granted an important concession. He suspended the joint military maneuvers with South Korea, which North Korea viewed as a threat.

It was all for nothing. The Americans have not made any progress during talks, and (surprise!) North Koreans are not willing to give up on their bomb in exchange for vague promises of prosperity. Now the U.S. is increasing the pressure again. The military maneuvers are no longer suspended and can start again soon. Trump’s predecessors had all come this far with the difficult North Koreans, though.

Consider the Iran example. This is where Trump’s results look the murkiest. By breaking the nuclear deal, the U.S. president wants to force the mullahs into new negotiations, not just concerning their nuclear program, but also their increasingly long-range missiles, their expansion in the region and threats toward Israel. The result: nothing. Iran’s response to sanctions has been to file a suit against the U.S. with the International Court of Justice.

Threats without Credibility

Despite the miserable economic situation and widespread dissatisfaction in the country, Iran does not move an inch when it comes to strategic issues. Tehran’s point of view is, “We have a deal and we stand by it, we do not negotiate with the U.S.!” After all, why should they? The U.S. has already violated the first deal. The world power no longer has any credibility, nobody trusts its government’s word or signature anymore. At the same time, Iranians sense that Trump’s strategy is too confused and cowardly for him to put his military advantage to use. Therefore, the sanctions have missed the mark completely.

What could help would be a radical change in American negotiating tactics, the insight that threats without credibility cannot lead to any progress; the solemn funeral of Trump’s “Art of the Deal.”

There is an example that shows how to succeed in making progress with the kind of regime found in North Korea or Iran. The so-called E3 talks conducted by France, Germany and Great Britain with Iran, later extended to the U.S., Russia and China. The negotiations lasted for 12 long years and ended with a treaty guaranteeing that Iran would abstain from the developing nuclear weapons for at least 15 years. This is the kind of deal Americans now want with North Korea. The one they have just broken with Iran.