Nuclear Trump

Published in El Pais
(Spain) on 23 October 2018
by Editorial (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Stephen Routledge. Edited by Eric Stimson.
In his systematic policy of destroying the framework of international relations that has been in place since the end of World War II, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, has surpassed even the most pessimistic of forecasts since his arrival at the White House in January 2017.

The announcement that his country will withdraw unilaterally from the historic and far-reaching Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, signed by Washington and Moscow in 1987, opens an unpredictable and dangerous scenario – which, if not eliminated, had at least appeared to be permanently dormant – of a hypothetical nuclear confrontation between the U.S. and Russia.

Never in the last 30 years has any U.S. president, no matter how big his differences with the Soviet Union, and later with Russia, used nuclear contention in his foreign policy strategy, and with such a threatening tone. It is true that in 2002, George Bush withdrew from another nuclear treaty signed in 1972, but in that case, it affected weapons of a totally defensive nature. Putin followed the same path this year, again with weapons designed to intercept possible attacks before they reached their own soil. But since the Republican Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev opened the era of nuclear disarmament – which was also key to the collapse of the Soviet regime and the democratization of Eastern Europe – the general approach has been for all U.S. presidents, whether Democrat or Republican, to contribute toward reaching agreements of differing degrees and practices with Moscow to reduce the nuclear threat to the planet. The last one was Barack Obama with the New START Treaty signed in 2010.

Trump alleges that since 2014, Russia has not been fulfilling its part of the treaty, blaming his predecessor – which comes as no surprise – for not withdrawing or renegotiating it. Contrary to what Trump believes international relations to be, breaking an agreement that has officially eliminated 2,692 warheads – this data alone provides evidence of success – is an extreme step at the end of a long road for which there are multiple options. But the current U.S. president acts as though he were aware of all the shortcuts and considers negotiations to be an annoying way not to reach an agreement with another party but to impose his standards. Now the hawks in the White House have already put the New START Treaty, which expires in 2021, under the spotlight.

Trump has opened up a Pandora's box that, after decades of authentic fear of a nuclear confrontation and the occasional scare, had taken a lot of effort to close and was at least under control. America could not be any bigger in a more insecure world.


En su política sistemática de dinamitar el entramado de relaciones internacionales creado en el mundo desde el fin de la II Guerra Mundial, el presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, acaba de ir más lejos que las previsiones más pesimistas desde que llegó a la Casa Blanca en enero de 2017.
El anuncio de que su país se retirará unilateralmente del histórico y trascendental Tratado sobre Fuerzas Nucleares de Alcance Intermedio que Washington y Moscú firmaron en 1987, abre un imprevisible y peligrosísimo escenario —que parecía si no eliminado, sí al menos adormecido de forma permanente— sobre un hipotético enfrentamiento nuclear entre EE UU y Rusia.
Nunca en los últimos 30 años ningún presidente de EE UU, por muy grandes que fueran sus diferencias primero con la Unión Soviética y posteriormente con Rusia, había utilizado en su estrategia política exterior el contencioso nuclear y menos con tono amenazante. Es cierto que en 2002 George Bush se retiró de otro tratado nuclear firmado en 1972, pero en este caso afectaba a armas de carácter totalmente defensivo. La misma senda siguió Putin este mismo año, de nuevo con armas destinadas a interceptar posibles ataques antes de que llegaran a suelo propio. Pero la línea general es que desde que el republicano Ronald Reagan y el líder soviético Mijaíl Gorbachov abrieran la era del desarme nuclear —que además fue clave para el desmoronamiento del régimen soviético y la democratización de Europa del Este— todos los presidentes estadounidenses, ya fueran demócratas o republicanos, han contribuido a llegar a acuerdos de diferente calado o prácticas con Moscú que redujeran esta amenaza planetaria. El último de ellos fue Barack Obama con el tratado Start III firmado en 2010.
Trump alega que Rusia no está cumpliendo su parte del tratado desde 2014 y culpa a su antecesor —lo cual no sorprende a nadie— de no retirarse o renegociarlo. Sucede que al contrario de lo que Trump cree que son las relaciones internacionales, romper un acuerdo que ha eliminado oficialmente 2.692 cabezas nucleares —con solo este dato ya es un éxito— es un paso extremo al final de un largo camino para el que existen múltiples opciones. Pero el actual mandatario de EE UU actúa como si fuera el conocedor de todos los atajos y considera que las negociaciones son una fastidiosa vía no para alcanzar un acuerdo con la otra parte, sino para imponer su criterio. Ahora, los halcones de la Casa Blanca ya tienen puesto en el punto de mira el Tratado Start III, que expira en 2021.
Trump ha abierto una caja de Pandora que tras décadas de auténtico temor a un enfrentamiento nuclear —y algún que otro susto— había costado mucho esfuerzo cerrar o por lo menos tener bajo control. América no puede ser más grande en un mundo más inseguro.
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