No Money with Trump
Published in Die Tageszeitung
(Germany) on 27 December 2018
by Ulrike Hermann (link to original)
U.S. President Donald Trump knows how to speculate. Apparently, he advised buying stocks because markets worldwide have fallen. This strategy is not especially original and even has a name: it is called “contrarian.” The trick lies in positioning oneself against the panicking droves – and banking on rising prices.
Nevertheless, Trump may just be indulging in his favorite pastime: wishful thinking. There is currently no reason to think that a complete recovery in the stock markets will occur. It is apparent even to “contrarians” that stock prices have now dropped because they had previously been artificially inflated. The stock markets consistently rose to new records because the interest rates of the most important central banks had stagnated at close to zero. Financial investments were unattractive, so all investors fled to stocks.
But now, interest rates are rising in the U.S. – at least a little. It immediately becomes apparent that stocks are no longer worth it because they are so mercilessly overpriced that hardly any return can be achieved with dividends.
Actually, Trump has every reason to be pleased. Rising interest rates mean that the U.S. economy is robust and unemployment is low. The Federal Reserve only raises interest rates when it fears that the economy could become overheated.
Yet Trump does not think like a president, he thinks instead like a speculator. He gets the economy mixed up with the stock market. He believes that rising stock prices are a sign of health, even though they were excessive.
In addition, Trump is generally known to be an egomaniac and thinks that stock prices are rising thanks only to him personally. Therefore, it follows logically that Trump acts like a top investment adviser. Further investment tips may soon follow.
There will be no lack of opportunity for Trump to send his amusing tweets, because the Fed cannot solve the fundamental problem by making credit more expensive either. There is already too much money in the world. Every investor knows that a financial crisis could break out at any moment. The stock markets will remain skittish – as Trump will, in any case.
Nevertheless, Trump may just be indulging in his favorite pastime: wishful thinking. There is currently no reason to think that a complete recovery in the stock markets will occur. It is apparent even to “contrarians” that stock prices have now dropped because they had previously been artificially inflated. The stock markets consistently rose to new records because the interest rates of the most important central banks had stagnated at close to zero. Financial investments were unattractive, so all investors fled to stocks.
But now, interest rates are rising in the U.S. – at least a little. It immediately becomes apparent that stocks are no longer worth it because they are so mercilessly overpriced that hardly any return can be achieved with dividends.
Actually, Trump has every reason to be pleased. Rising interest rates mean that the U.S. economy is robust and unemployment is low. The Federal Reserve only raises interest rates when it fears that the economy could become overheated.
Yet Trump does not think like a president, he thinks instead like a speculator. He gets the economy mixed up with the stock market. He believes that rising stock prices are a sign of health, even though they were excessive.
In addition, Trump is generally known to be an egomaniac and thinks that stock prices are rising thanks only to him personally. Therefore, it follows logically that Trump acts like a top investment adviser. Further investment tips may soon follow.
There will be no lack of opportunity for Trump to send his amusing tweets, because the Fed cannot solve the fundamental problem by making credit more expensive either. There is already too much money in the world. Every investor knows that a financial crisis could break out at any moment. The stock markets will remain skittish – as Trump will, in any case.
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