Incoherence as a Weapon

Published in El Pais
(Spain) on 11 July 2019
by Lluis Bassets (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Stephen Routledge. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
The only coherence in Trump’s policy toward Iran, Afghanistan and North Korea is that it is meant to obtain a diplomatic victory before November 2020 and propel Trump toward winning a second term.

If proof were needed about the defeat of diplomacy in this era of digital brutality, it has been provided by Kim Darroch, the former British ambassador in Washington who has since resigned, and the revelation of his messages about Donald Trump, messages that were unbearable for the narcissist in chief installed in the White House. In the current climate of international politics, diplomatic secrecy can hardly be guaranteed, and there is a free-for-all attitude by leaders such as Trump. One can see that in the way Trump uses social media either when communicating with other leaders, or when spreading lies and insults about those who criticize him.

Among the numerous inappropriate remarks which led to the resignation of the first ambassador in Washington from the Foreign Office was his opinion about the Trumpist policy toward Iran, which the ambassador described as "incoherent and chaotic" and difficult to put right in the immediate future. Darroch described the hours following the destruction of a United States drone by Iran as ones of "disorder and confusion," especially when Trump called off an order to attack Iranian facilities. According to Darroch’s account, the president has an "aversion to military adventures" and is more interested in in the results of the 2020 election, though we should not rule out a new turn of events that could trigger a war.

Nothing reflects the incoherence of U.S. foreign policy better than the contradiction between Trump's personal negotiations with Kim Jong Un, the North Korean leader he has met on three occasions (the last meeting taking place on June 30), and his repeated intransigence regarding Iran. North Korea has all of the elements it needs to manufacture, and even launch, a nuclear bomb with trans-Atlantic-range missiles. Tehran, on the other hand, has only resumed its civilian uranium enrichment program above forbidden levels in reaction to Washington’s unilateral rupture of the nuclear agreement and the imposition of new sanctions, which have been accompanied by a blockade on the sale of oil. Incoherence, in the case of Trump, is a policy. The president accuses the Iranians of being terrorists while negotiating in Qatar with one of the largest terrorist groups, the Taliban – still active in their attacks – with the aim of removing all U.S. troops from Afghanistan after 18 years of U.S. occupation.

The animosity toward Iran is not due to its terrorist activity or nuclear proliferation, but to the interests of its allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, who are strategic rivals in the region, as well as the destruction of Barack Obama's international legacy, work which specifically contributed to the nuclear agreement and the incorporation of Tehran into the international community.

The only coherence in Trump’s policy toward Iran, Afghanistan and North Korea is that it is meant to obtain a diplomatic victory before November 2020 and propel Trump toward winning a second term.




La incoherencia como arma

La única coherencia de la política de Trump hacia Irán, Afganistán y Corea del Norte es la obtención de una victoria diplomática antes de noviembre de 2020 para conseguir un segundo mandato

Si hacía falta una prueba de la derrota de la diplomacia en la era de la brutalidad digital, ésta la ha proporcionado Kim Darroch, el ya dimitido embajador británico en Washington, con la revelación de sus mensajes sobre Donald Trump, tan exactos en sus contenidos como insoportables para el narcisista en jefe que se halla instalado en la Casa Blanca. En la actual política internacional apenas se puede garantizar el secreto diplomático y hay en cambio barra libre para dirigentes como Trump en el uso de las redes sociales, ya sea para comunicarse con otros mandatarios, ya para difundir mentiras o insultar a quienes le critican.

Entre las abundantes inconveniencias que han conducido a la dimisión del primer embajador (Washington) de la primera diplomacia (Foreign Office) se hallan sus consideraciones sobre la política trumpista respecto a Irán, a la que califica de “incoherente y caótica” y de difícil corrección en un inmediato futuro. Darroch describe las horas posteriores al derribo de un avión no tripulado de Estados Unidos por parte de Irán como de “desorden y confusión”, sobre todo cuando Trump abortó la orden de ataque a instalaciones iraníes. El presidente, según su narración, tiene “aversión a las aventuras militares” y atendió, sobre todo, a las consecuencias para sus expectativas electorales en 2020, pero no hay que descartar un nuevo giro que desencadene un conflicto bélico.

Nada refleja mejor la incoherencia de la política exterior estadounidense como la contradicción entre las negociaciones personales de Trump con Kim Jong-un, el líder norcoreano con el que se ha entrevistado en tres ocasiones, la última el pasado 30 de junio, y la reiterada intransigencia respecto a Irán. Corea del Norte tiene todos los elementos para fabricar e incluso lanzar una bomba nuclear con misiles de alcance transatlántico, mientras que Teherán solo ha reanudado su programa civil de enriquecimiento de uranio por encima de los niveles prohibidos, como reacción a la ruptura unilateral del acuerdo nuclear por parte de Washington y a la imposición de nuevas sanciones, acompañadas de un bloqueo en la venta de petróleo. La incoherencia, en el caso de Trump, es una política. El presidente acusa a los iraníes de terroristas, pero está negociando en Qatar con una de las mayores matrices del terrorismo, como son los talibanes, todavía activos en sus atentados, con el objetivo de sacar todas las tropas estadounidenses de Afganistán después de 18 años de ocupación.

La animadversión hacia Irán no se debe a su actividad terrorista ni a la proliferación nuclear, sino al interés de sus aliados, Israel y Arabia Saudí, los rivales estratégicos de la región, y a la destrucción del legado internacional de Obama, que lucía especialmente en el acuerdo nuclear y en la incorporación de Teherán a la comunidad internacional.

La única coherencia de esta triple y divergente política hacia Irán, Afganistán y Corea del Norte es la obtención, al menos, de una victoria diplomática antes de noviembre de 2020 que propulse a Trump hacia el segundo mandato.

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