Don’t Ignore the Cries of the American Left: Let’s Investigate the Turning of the Tides with Humility

Published in Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei)
(Japan) on 11 November 2019
by Mikio Sugeno (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Eric Stimson. Edited by Elizabeth Cosgriff.
Nov. 9 marked exactly 30 years since the Berlin Wall that divided East from West fell. In commemoration of the triumph of American-led free economics and capitalism over communism, left-wing candidates who favor big government for America are steadily strengthening their footholds ahead of the election a year away.

Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, of the opposition Democratic Party, are challenging President Donald Trump. They are radicals who both want universal insurance and free college, which will cost enormous sums. The tendency to despise policies that target the wealthy and corporations as a different kind of nightmare from Trump’s reelection is especially common among those connected to financial markets. America could, of course, become the source of a headache for foreign, including Japanese, businesspeople.

From the standpoint of an economic paper, I don’t intend to openly admire left-wing policies, but it isn’t wise to condemn their points as mere extremist blather and avert your eyes. The 2016 decision in Britain to leave the European Union and Trump’s election were, in retrospect, a major watershed. We need to look head-on at the cries of America’s resurgent left wing as the new reality of a superpower and the world.

Warren may leave an undependable, aloof impression, but in person you can understand her latent potential. This fall, I saw her at a gathering of Democratic presidential candidates in New Hampshire. When Warren’s name was called out, the audience all stood. The applause and cheering didn’t stop for three minutes, and she couldn’t start her speech.

“For two cents on the dollar, we can do universal child care for every baby, zero to five, universal pre-K, universal college, and knock back the student loan burden for 95% of our students.” These loose expressions are how she explains her plan for a 2% tax on the assets of the wealthy class with over $50 million. The talented American election analyst Charlie Cook is full of admiration for her. “She is the best candidate so far at connecting with her audience. … [S]he may be an opponent easy for Trump to attack, but if she whips up the Democratic base she could win.”*

In October, Sanders briefly paused his election activities due to a heart attack. I thought his support would unavoidably ebb, but in a Washington Post/ABC poll conducted shortly afterward, his support, at 17%, ran close behind the centrist Joe Biden’s (28%) and Warren’s (23%). Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – who at age 30 is young enough to be his granddaughter – also announced her support, and he absorbs the young people’s power.

“Trump is the worst kind of socialist,” Sanders wrote in an article in an American economic paper, hitting back against Trump for his claim that “America will never be a socialist country.” He says that the true face of Trump’s policies is “corporate socialism,” which uses the government’s power to favor corporations and the wealthy, while stealing opportunities for ordinary people with harsh market principles.

Combine the two liberal candidates’ rates of support and it reaches 40%. Their policies and ideology are not entirely identical, but at present radical liberalism is changing from a heresy to the mainstream of the Democratic Party.

This is an inconvenient reality for the Democrats. Forty-two percent say that Biden is the best candidate to defeat Trump in the presidential election. Even if Warren’s 17% and Sanders’s 16% are added, it still doesn’t come close. If a liberal candidate wins, there might be a crushing defeat. … There are many worried voices.

From a business standpoint, the policies emphasized by the liberal candidates have a large range of instability. Warren unveiled a grand plan on Nov. 1 to introduce universal insurance by returning the corporate tax rate to 35% and greatly increasing taxes on the upper class’s assets and possessions. “We don’t need to raise taxes on the middle class by one penny,” she says, while her list raises $20 trillion in taxes over 10 years. The Wall Street Journal derided the plan as “Elizabeth Warren’s Health-Care Hara-Kiri.”

“If [Warren] gets elected president, then I would bet that we will have a legal challenge,” Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said at an internal meeting. Giant information technology firms and financial institutions will frankly assume a combative posture if the government intervenes to try to fix their monopolies or oligopolies. There is a significant chance of an economy clouded by a kind of uncertainty different from Trump’s style of reckless tariffs.

But we need careful thought about whether these kinds of ideas based on business and political consensus really fit with the world of the 2020s and beyond.

When Greta Thunberg, a 16-year-old environmental activist, scolded the world’s governments at the U.N. General Assembly in September for their inaction against global warming, the 73-year-old Trump teased her in a tweet. America formally declared that it was withdrawing from the Paris Agreement to halt global warming. I can’t say that the American administration, which dismisses climate change as a hoax, is fulfilling its responsibility for the future.

The wealth gap in America has expanded in one swoop because of Trump’s tax cuts. Some investors, such as George Soros, think that raising taxes on elites like themselves is necessary. The heads of 200 top companies announced that they would address the problem of oligopolies of giant corporations and business administration shaped by shareholder primacy; these sorts of instances herald an era of introspection.

Even in America, you can hear the footsteps of the population’s advancing age. Policies that only seek to improve conditions in the near future risk deepening the conflict between the youth, who have to pick up the tab later, and their elders. The Trump administration can’t get over its fixation with manufacturing and old-fashioned industries. Even the moderate faction in the Democratic Party lacks policies that can break through the problems piling up.

The liberal candidates’ points may become the basis for the world in 10 or 20 years. This is the time for those ideas to develop.

*Translator’s note: This quote, accurately translated from the original, could not be verified.


東西世界を分断したベルリンの壁が崩れて9日でちょうど30年。米国主導の自由経済や資本主義が共産主義を制した記念日に、米国では大きな政府を志向する左派の大統領候補が1年後の選挙に向けて着実に足場を固めている。

トランプ大統領に挑む野党・民主党のエリザベス・ウォーレン氏とバーニー・サンダース氏。ともに巨額の財源を要する国民皆保険や大学の無償化を掲げる急進的なリベラル派だ。富裕層や大企業を狙い撃ちする政策はトランプ氏の再選とは別の意味での「悪夢」になると忌み嫌う向きが、特に金融市場の関係者には多い。米国はもちろん、日本など海外の経営者にも頭痛の種になるだろう。

経済紙の立場で左派の政策を手放しで礼賛するつもりはない。だが彼らの主張をただ「過激な暴論」と決めつけ、目をそむけるのは賢明ではない。2016年の英国による欧州連合(EU)離脱支持やトランプ氏の当選は、振り返れば大きな時代の潮目の変化だった。米国に息づく左派の叫びを、超大国と世界の新たな現実として正面から見据える必要がある。

線が細く冷たい印象のウォーレン氏の底力は現場に来てわかる。この秋、ニューハンプシャー州に民主党の大統領候補が勢ぞろいした集会をのぞいた。ウォーレン氏の登場がコールされると聴衆は総立ち。拍手と歓声が3分止まらず、演説が始められなかった。

「1ドルのうち2セントで、全ての赤ちゃんに包括的な保育を提供し、地域の大学を無償にして、95%の学生ローンを棒引きできる」。5000万ドル(約54億円)を超す富裕層の資産から2%の税を徴収する構想をゆっくりとした口調で説明する。米国の有力選挙アナリスト、チャーリー・クック氏は「これまで見てきた中で、聴衆に訴えかける能力に最も優れた候補の一人」とウォーレン氏に舌を巻く。「トランプ氏にとっては攻撃しやすい相手だが、民主支持層を鼓舞できれば勝てるかもしれない」

78歳のサンダース氏は10月に心臓発作で選挙活動を小休止した。退潮必至かと思いきや、ワシントン・ポストとABCが実施した直近の世論調査で、支持率は中道のバイデン前副大統領の28%、ウォーレン氏の23%に次ぐ17%に肉薄した。30歳と孫世代のオカシオコルテス下院議員も支持を表明し、若者パワーを吸収する。

「トランプは最もたちの悪い社会主義者だ」。サンダース氏は米経済紙への寄稿で「米国は決して社会主義者の国にならない」と批判する大統領の言葉に反撃した。政府の力で大企業や富裕層を優遇し、厳しい市場原理で普通の人々の機会を奪う「企業社会主義」がトランプ政策の正体だという。

左派候補2人の支持率を合算すると40%に達する。政策や思想が全く一致するわけではないが、現時点では急進的な左派が異端でなく民主党の本流と化している。

これは民主党にとって具合の悪い現実でもある。大統領選でトランプ大統領を打ち負かせる最良の候補を「バイデン氏」とした回答は42%。ウォーレン氏の17%、サンダース氏の16%を足してもなお遠く及ばない。左派候補が勝ち抜けば惨敗するかもしれない……。心配の声は多い。

ビジネスの観点では、米左派が主張する政策はあまりに振れ幅が大きい。ウォーレン氏が1日に「壮大な構想」と発表した国民皆保険の導入プランは法人税率を35%に戻し、富裕層の資産や所得に大幅な増税を課す。「中間層からは1ペニーも増税しない」と言いつつ10年間で20兆ドルの財源を捻出する増税リストだ。「ウォーレンのハラキリ」と米紙ウォール・ストリート・ジャーナルは酷評する。

「ウォーレン氏が大統領に当選したら、米政府と法廷闘争も辞さない」。フェイスブックのザッカーバーグ最高経営責任者(CEO)が社内のウェブ会議で明言した。巨大なIT(情報技術)企業や金融機関の独占や寡占を政府の介入で直させようとする動きに、あからさまな対決姿勢をとる。関税を乱発するトランプ流とも違う新たな不確実性が、経済も曇らせる可能性は相当にある。

だが、これまでのビジネスや政策の常識に立脚した考えが本当に20年代以降の世界に合うものなのかどうかは、熟慮がいる。

16歳の環境活動家、グレタ・トゥンベリさんが9月、国連の会議で地球温暖化対策への各国政府の不作為を責めると、73歳のトランプ氏は彼女をからかうツイートを投稿した。米国は温暖化防止の「パリ協定」離脱を正式に通告した。気候変動を「作り話」と見下す米政権は将来への責任を果たしているとはとてもいえない。

米国内の所得格差はトランプ減税の作用で一段と広がる。投資家ジョージ・ソロス氏ら富裕層にも自らへの課税強化を必要と訴える勢力が現れている。巨大企業の寡占問題や株主至上主義で進んだ企業経営も、有力企業200社のトップが見直しを宣言する声明を出すなど内省の時を迎えている。

米国ですら人口の高齢化の足音が迫りつつある。目先の現状さえ良ければいいとする政策は後にツケを回される若い世代と年上世代との摩擦を深めかねない。トランプ政権からは製造業や旧来産業を優先する志向が拭えない。民主党の中道派が掲げる政策にも積み残された課題への突破力が欠ける。

左派候補の論点は10年、20年後の世界の基準かもしれない。そんな発想を展開する時期だ。
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