Back to Square One?

Beijing was quick to respond to what it considered a brash and unacceptable act of American hegemony. The U.S. Congress passed a bill almost unanimously that was later signed by Donald Trump, in which the most powerful nation on the planet sided with protesters in Hong Kong over their lack of freedom. From a Chinese perspective, the law, the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, is more than a sympathetic gesture in favor of Hong Kong protesters who are keeping their government in check.

The act signed in the United States serves a clear interventionist purpose in the current conflict, but goes even further than that, according to Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam. She did not hesitate to assert that the law “creates an unstable and uncertain environment” in that region of China. The act signed by the administration in Washington gives Washington the responsibility to annually assess the human rights of those residing in the former British colony and to impose sanctions if systemic violations are unilaterally determined to exist.

The provisions of the law state that sanctions can go as far as eliminating the exemptions from trade restrictions imposed on China by the United States that are currently provided to Hong Kong.

It should be noted that such a decision could deal a hard blow to the region’s economy, even without taking into account that those responsible for oppressing others could also be personally sanctioned.

The adoption of this law by Congress surprised Beijing. Such solidarity displayed by Democrats for the White House proposal was unexpected; only one representative voted against it. Those close to Xi Jinping counted on the fact that the American president, who decided on this proclamation, would not risk the progress of negotiations taking place between both powers toward the shared goal of gradually dismantling trade restrictions that each side has imposed on the other – and that have contributed so much to sour relations between them.

But far from that scenario, Trump’s advisers made him wait until the results of municipal elections in the autonomous territory were announced, a clean sweep by opponents of the local administration. Then, following his signature, Trump brought the law to life, thus unleashing the fury of the Asian giant.

Such support of the rebels in Hong Kong by the U.S. government Kong was immediately described as malicious interference by the leaders of the Communist Party. The rest is history. As of yesterday, American ships, which have traditionally anchored in Hong Kong territorial waters, can no longer do so, and this is only the first of many retaliations. This action was taken by the government of Carrie Lam. Further responses will come from Beijing.

What analysts fear is that this episode will be decisive for the future of bilateral relations and for peaceful world trade. Many think that, sooner rather than later, Washington’s ill-advised new offensive will jeopardize the possibility of an agreement to gradually dismantle the tariffs imposed by both powers within the context of their dreaded trade war. The consequences would affect all global exchanges.

It seems that this final, daring move by Trump will bring things to a breaking point. Back to square one, as he himself would say.