It is now time for a crucial decision about Brazil's international policy. Jair Bolsonaro's government, including the president, his sons and minister of foreign affairs, Ernesto Araújo, have always shown themselves to be subservient to the Americans, but this case is serious and could plunge the world into a new world war. After the drone attack by the U.S. on a Baghdad military base controlled by Iranian forces in which the Iranian leader, Qassem Soleimani, was killed, the world's geopolitics will radically change.*
At the United Nations, all the countries of the world will have to either express support for America's actions or condemn them. Which of these two categories will Brazil be in? In this case, there is no middle ground; condemn America’s actions or support them. It is worth remembering that conflict with Iran’s leadership in the Middle East has been increasing in recent years, always with the support of Russia and China, while the Americans have never hidden the fact that Iran is supremely important to their world strategy of dominating oil production given that the region has the planet’s largest oil reserves. But one should not forget that the attack on an Iranian base in Baghdad* is just the fuse in a conflict which could break out. In the end, the attack not only killed Soleimani, who is simply the most respected authority in Iran closest to the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Americans also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, Iraq's head of the militias supported by Iran.
Since this attack provides everything necessary to provoke a new international conflict, one needs to know how Brazil will behave in the face of it. As we know, Donald Trump is campaigning for reelection and could use a war to advance American arms policy, which is what sustains the American empire. But Brazil has sought to be neutral before in this type of conflict. Given the personality of Bolsonaro, who loves to be bellicose domestically and internationally, it would not be surprising if he came to support the American actions, and stood alongside the U.S. and Israel in the endless fight with the Arabs in the Middle East. Theoretically, Brazil should be neutral, but Bolsonaro, his guru Olavo de Carvalho and his insane pups will certainly drag us into the eye of the hurricane.
*Editor’s note: Qassem Soleimani was killed in a drone strike at the airport in Baghdad, Iraq.
Bolsonaro deverá apoiar EUA contra o Irã
Germano Oliveira
The challenge for Washington is no longer whether it possesses sufficient capabilities, but whether the political system can align those capabilities behind a coherent long-term priority.
The challenge for Washington is no longer whether it possesses sufficient capabilities, but whether the political system can align those capabilities behind a coherent long-term priority.
The Beijing summit did not produce a major agreement between the great powers on the region, but it firmly established that Middle Eastern crises are now deeply tied to the great-power dialogue.
During the Cold War, the United States occupied the apex of this triangular dynamic, pitting China and the USSR against each other. Today, it is Beijing that occupies that apex.
The challenge for Washington is no longer whether it possesses sufficient capabilities, but whether the political system can align those capabilities behind a coherent long-term priority.
The Beijing summit did not produce a major agreement between the great powers on the region, but it firmly established that Middle Eastern crises are now deeply tied to the great-power dialogue.