Wisconsin
Published in El financiero
(Mexico) on 9 April 2020
by Jorge Berry (link to original)
Life takes many twists and turns. For almost four years, we have been talking incessantly about Donald Trump, and how, as president of the United States, he has been trying with all the means at his disposal to dynamite the democratic institutions that serve (served) to limit presidential power. We spent months analyzing the strange Vladimir Putin-Trump relationship, the incomprehensible contraction of the United States role in geopolitics, the surrender of U.S. spheres of influence to other countries. All this to try to discover what to expect in the coming presidential election on Nov. 3.
I am not saying it has been a waste of time, because it has let us analyze the extent to which a president’s ambition and corruption can damage the foundations of any democracy, even the most powerful democracy on the planet. But not even the most clairvoyant of political analysts could have predicted that a global pandemic would change the electoral equation in the U.S. to such a degree.
You can throw all the previous analyses in the trash. Trump will be elected, or he won’t be elected, completely on the basis of how the electorate views his response to the crisis. All is fair in this war, and the Republicans, never known for clean elections, are doing their part to tip the balance.
The first battle was waged in Wisconsin two days ago. The state held primary elections for both parties. But in addition to that, there was also the election of a state Supreme Court justice, which the Republicans were not prepared to lose, although recent election history had them worried.
Wisconsin voted twice for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. But in 2016, the state did a U-turn and was part of Trump’s unexpected victory. Wisconsin did not forgive Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate, who did not make a single visit to the state, because she was sure she had it in the bag. She was wrong.
Two years of Trump’s presidency were enough for Wisconsin to realize its error. In the 2018 midterm elections, they chose a Democratic governor, although they were not able to get control of the legislature. Why not? Well, because the Republicans have gerrymandered the congressional district map to such a degree that, despite losing the general election for the lower house by almost 150,000 votes, the Republicans ended up with a majority there of 65% to 35%. Absolutely bizarre.
In the face of the pandemic, Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers issued an executive order to stay at home, and to postpone the election until June, as did all the other states with an election scheduled. But Wisconsin Republicans saw an opportunity, and challenged the order in court, insisting that postponing the election would affect the outcome. Then Evers asked Republicans to accept a postponement so everyone could vote by mail. They wouldn’t agree to that either, and it went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, where the conservative majority ruled the election would take place. The results of the Wisconsin primary will not be known until April 13.* But in any event, the election risked the lives of thousands, forcing voters to stand in long lines. In Milwaukee, the largest city in the state, only five out of the original 180 polling places were functioning.
The fewer people voting, the better it was going to be for the Republicans; many people didn’t vote in order to avoid risking infection. This is also true at the national level. What will be going on with the pandemic by Nov. 3? No one knows. The president and the Senate will block attempts to safeguard the election by permitting voting by mail nationally. Trump and Mitch McConnell have already made this clear. This doesn’t leave many options for the Democrats. Everything indicates that a massive voter suppression campaign, especially of minority voters, is being carried out on a national scale, with not much available in the way of tools to counteract it.
Yes, the Republicans are playing dirty. Now would be the time for the Democrats to learn how to do that.
*Editor’s note: Joe Biden won the 2020 Democratic presidential primary in Wisconsin with 65% of the vote.
I am not saying it has been a waste of time, because it has let us analyze the extent to which a president’s ambition and corruption can damage the foundations of any democracy, even the most powerful democracy on the planet. But not even the most clairvoyant of political analysts could have predicted that a global pandemic would change the electoral equation in the U.S. to such a degree.
You can throw all the previous analyses in the trash. Trump will be elected, or he won’t be elected, completely on the basis of how the electorate views his response to the crisis. All is fair in this war, and the Republicans, never known for clean elections, are doing their part to tip the balance.
The first battle was waged in Wisconsin two days ago. The state held primary elections for both parties. But in addition to that, there was also the election of a state Supreme Court justice, which the Republicans were not prepared to lose, although recent election history had them worried.
Wisconsin voted twice for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. But in 2016, the state did a U-turn and was part of Trump’s unexpected victory. Wisconsin did not forgive Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate, who did not make a single visit to the state, because she was sure she had it in the bag. She was wrong.
Two years of Trump’s presidency were enough for Wisconsin to realize its error. In the 2018 midterm elections, they chose a Democratic governor, although they were not able to get control of the legislature. Why not? Well, because the Republicans have gerrymandered the congressional district map to such a degree that, despite losing the general election for the lower house by almost 150,000 votes, the Republicans ended up with a majority there of 65% to 35%. Absolutely bizarre.
In the face of the pandemic, Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers issued an executive order to stay at home, and to postpone the election until June, as did all the other states with an election scheduled. But Wisconsin Republicans saw an opportunity, and challenged the order in court, insisting that postponing the election would affect the outcome. Then Evers asked Republicans to accept a postponement so everyone could vote by mail. They wouldn’t agree to that either, and it went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, where the conservative majority ruled the election would take place. The results of the Wisconsin primary will not be known until April 13.* But in any event, the election risked the lives of thousands, forcing voters to stand in long lines. In Milwaukee, the largest city in the state, only five out of the original 180 polling places were functioning.
The fewer people voting, the better it was going to be for the Republicans; many people didn’t vote in order to avoid risking infection. This is also true at the national level. What will be going on with the pandemic by Nov. 3? No one knows. The president and the Senate will block attempts to safeguard the election by permitting voting by mail nationally. Trump and Mitch McConnell have already made this clear. This doesn’t leave many options for the Democrats. Everything indicates that a massive voter suppression campaign, especially of minority voters, is being carried out on a national scale, with not much available in the way of tools to counteract it.
Yes, the Republicans are playing dirty. Now would be the time for the Democrats to learn how to do that.
*Editor’s note: Joe Biden won the 2020 Democratic presidential primary in Wisconsin with 65% of the vote.
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