Trump, against the Dollar

Published in El País
(Spain) on 8/1/2020
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Derek Voglis. Edited by Jamye Sharp.
The erosion of U.S. institutions can affect the dollar as a major currency.

As the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 3 draws near, political uncertainty is increasing, adding to the great unknown that looms over the global economy. Contributing to this is the disastrous management of the White House's COVID-19 pandemic response and the severe consequences it is leading to in terms of job loss and impoverishment of segments of the population. However, nothing is as unsettling for everyone – not only U.S. citizens, as the irresponsible and authoritarian behavior of their president who even presumes to question the legitimacy of the election date, though he has zero legal precedents on his side. All of this comes after he refused to make good on his promise that he would accept the results if they were unfavorable to him.

Trump knows now that securing a second election victory will be very difficult and is willing to do anything other than succumb to defeat. His current aim is to reverse the effects of the pandemic, which have significantly damaged him politically due to his frivolous response and irresponsible dismissal of the facts, and turn it into a pretext to restrict the right to vote. The focus of his attention is to reject or limit as much as possible the eventuality of mail-in voting. Mail-in voting is the only system that could prevent an election-defining low voter turnout for the Democrats if the states' infections continue to rise, as is likely to be the case. The prospect of an election tainted by lengthy vote recounts and court appeals to prevent a clear-cut victory, and the timely handover of the presidency is worrying.

The erosion that the institutions of the great American democracy are undergoing is stretching far beyond what anyone could have imagined when Trump won. The dollar is also suffering the effects of the Trump storm; as a result, fears are beginning to mount regarding its ability to continue as a major currency and safeguard against global crises. As things stand, it seems inevitable that these fears will increase if Trump remains in the White House for four more years.


Cuanto más se acercan las elecciones presidenciales del 3 de noviembre más aumenta una incertidumbre política que se suma a la gran incógnita que se cierne sobre la economía mundial. Contribuyen a ella la desastrosa gestión de la pandemia desde la Casa Blanca y las severas consecuencias que está acarreando en destrucción de empleo y empobrecimiento de la población. Pero no hay factor tan desestabilizador para todos, no tan solo para los ciudadanos estadounidenses, como el comportamiento irresponsable y autoritario de su presidente, capaz de especular con la fecha de celebración de los comicios, aun sin amparo legal alguno, después de negarse a avanzar una promesa de aceptación de los resultados si le son desfavorables.

Trump sabe ya ahora que tiene muy difícil una segunda victoria electoral y está dispuesto a cualquier cosa antes que acomodarse a la derrota. Su objetivo presente es revertir los efectos de la pandemia, que tanto le ha perjudicado por su frívola pasividad y su negacionismo irresponsable, para convertirla en excusa con vistas a restringir el derecho de voto. El foco de su atención es rechazar o limitar al máximo la eventualidad del voto por correo, el único sistema que puede evitar una abstención masiva y letal para los demócratas en el caso bastante probable de que en muchos Estados sigan entonces los contagios colectivos. Es inquietante el horizonte de unas elecciones embarradas en recuentos prolongados y en recursos a los tribunales, hasta el punto de impedir una victoria clara y el relevo presidencial en la fecha prevista.

La erosión a la que están sometidas las instituciones de la gran democracia americana está llegando mucho más lejos de lo que cualquiera hubiera podido imaginar cuando Trump consiguió la victoria. Ahora también el dólar está sufriendo los efectos del vendaval trumpista, hasta el punto de que empiezan a surgir temores respecto a su capacidad para seguir como moneda de referencia y refugio ante las crisis mundiales. A estas alturas ya parece seguro que estos temores se acrecentarán si Trump permanece cuatro años más en la Casa Blanca.
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