The November Elections

On Tuesday, Nov. 3, 10 weeks from now, there will be a presidential election in the United States. Members of the House of Representatives are also up for reelection along with one-third of the Senate. Joe Biden is the official Democratic presidential nominee and his vice presidential running mate is Kamala Harris. Donald Trump and Michael Pence will seek reelection.

According to the polls, if the election were held today, the Democrats would win by an overwhelming margin, and could even end up with control of Congress. But the election is not today, and many things can happen the more than 70 days that remain.

There is not much that can be said about Trump that would be different from our comments here over the last five years since he appeared as a candidate. He has confirmed that he is a borderline character: a narcissist, megalomaniac, swindler and a liar. If he had not been born rich and famous, he would be in jail. It’s still possible that if he’s not reelected, he could get prison time. This is why he is very dangerous. Trump knows that if he’s not able to stay in the White House, he will be wearing orange pajamas in some prison. The arrest of his initial campaign manager, Steve Bannon, on fraud charges and the court order that Trump hand over his tax records, both of which occurred yesterday [Aug. 20], should confirm for him that there is no way out.

Until the pandemic, he was seen as highly likely to be reelected. His mistakes have complicated this expectation, which is why he has started to insist that the election will be fraudulent, that mail-in voting should not happen, that the election date needs to be changed, and that he will not leave the White House regardless of the outcome. He has even tried to shut down the postal service so that voters cannot use absentee ballots. I continue to be surprised that there are those who defend him. One-third of Americans who remain racist will always support him. That people support him in other countries, including Mexico, seems absurd to me, but there are all types in this world.

I think the choice of Harris as vice president is a very good idea. You may remember that she was a candidate for president, but she had to abandon the race because she was unable to raise money for the campaign. However, she is a qualified and capable woman who could step in as president of the United States at any moment. That is very relevant today with a Biden whom many doubt will be able to complete his term due to his age, and because he seems to show some cognitive decline. This is the only way he resembles Trump. Otherwise, he is completely different: well-mannered, centrist, a negotiator.

It would be great news for the entire world if Trump failed to be reelected. That the government of the United States, the most powerful country in the world, is in the hands of someone like him is an ominous sign that is being repeated in many other countries. Although there has always been the risk of having a populist, megalomaniac president anywhere, with Trump this has become “normalized,” as they now say.

As for Mexico, it would also be very good if Trump were not reelected, if only to have a predictable neighboring government. In this election, however, I have no doubt that there will be some cost to us for a Democratic victory. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s meeting with Trump will not be easily forgotten. Also, it should be noted that the Democrats caused complications with respect to negotiations dealing with trade, labor and the environment. Those are precisely where we will have problems in 2021.

Whatever the outcome, the U.S. election will have tremendous relevance for us and we should pay attention. I repeat, there are only 10 weeks left, and Trump will do anything to avoid losing. “Anything,” for the president of the most powerful country in the world, is very wide territory.